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加密貨幣新聞文章

比特幣所有指標:一個綜合指標,可指導您的比特幣投資決策

2025/02/07 21:57

如果我們擁有一個無所不包的指標來指導比特幣投資決策,那不是很好嗎?這正是創建的內容,即比特幣所有指標。

比特幣所有指標:一個綜合指標,可指導您的比特幣投資決策

Bitcoin Magazine Pro recently unveiled the Bitcoin Everything Indicator, an all-encompassing metric designed to streamline Bitcoin analysis and investment decision-making. This indicator consolidates multiple metrics into a single framework, aiming to provide a more holistic understanding of Bitcoin's price movements.

Bitcoin Magazine Pro最近發布了Bitcoin Everything指標,這是一個無所不包的指標,旨在簡化比特幣分析和投資決策。該指標將多個指標合併為一個框架,旨在提供對比特幣價格變動的更全面的理解。

Investors and analysts often rely on various metrics, such as on-chain data, technical analysis, and derivative charts, to make informed decisions. However, focusing too much on one aspect can lead to an incomplete understanding of Bitcoin's complex dynamics. The Bitcoin Everything Indicator attempts to solve this by integrating key components into one clear metric.

投資者和分析師通常依靠各種指標,例如鍊上數據,技術分析和衍生圖表來做出明智的決定。但是,過多地關註一個方面可能會導致對比特幣複雜動態的不完全理解。比特幣所有指標試圖通過將密鑰組件集成到一個清晰的度量標準中來解決此問題。

Global liquidity cycles have had a major influence on BTC price action, especially when it comes to the massive liquidity injections and withdrawals. This indicator tracks the correlation between Bitcoin and broader financial markets, particularly in terms of Global M2 money supply. When liquidity expands, Bitcoin has typically appreciated, and vice versa.

全球流動性週期對BTC價格行動產生了重大影響,尤其是在大量流動性注射和提款方面。該指標跟踪比特幣與更廣泛的金融市場之間的相關性,尤其是在全球M2貨幣供應方面。當流動性擴大時,比特幣通常會讚賞,反之亦然。

Fundamental factors like Bitcoin's halving cycles and miner strength also play an essential role in its valuation. This indicator incorporates metrics that assess these aspects. Halvings decrease the new Bitcoin supply, but their impact on price appreciation has diminished as over 94% of Bitcoin's total supply is already in circulation. However, miner profitability remains crucial. The Puell Multiple, which measures miner revenue relative to historical averages, provides insights into market cycles. Historically, when miner profitability is strong, Bitcoin tends to be in a favorable position.

比特幣的減半週期和礦工強度等基本因素在其估值中也起著至關重要的作用。該指標包含評估這些方面的指標。過度降低了新的比特幣供應,但是它們對價格升值的影響卻降低了,因為比特幣總供應的94%以上已經流通。但是,礦工的盈利能力仍然至關重要。 PUELL多重倍數衡量了相對於歷史平均值的礦工收入,它為市場週期提供了見解。從歷史上看,當礦工盈利能力很強時,比特幣往往處於有利的位置。

On-chain indicators help assess Bitcoin's supply and demand dynamics, which are crucial for understanding market trends. Several key on-chain metrics are integrated into this indicator to provide a comprehensive view of supply and demand. For example, the MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market cap to its realized cap (average purchase price of all coins) to identify accumulation and distribution zones, highlighting when Bitcoin is overvalued or undervalued.

鏈上指標有助於評估比特幣的供求動態,這對於了解市場趨勢至關重要。該指標將幾個關鍵的鏈上指標集成到該指標中,以提供供求的全面觀點。例如,MVRV Z分數將比特幣的市值與已實現的上限(所有硬幣的平均購買價格)進行了比較,以識別累積和分銷區,從而突出了何時比特幣被高估或被低估了。

Another critical on-chain metric is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which examines the profitability of coins being spent. This provides insights into investor sentiment and realized gains/losses. When Bitcoin holders realize massive profits, it often signals a market peak, whereas high losses indicate a market bottom.

另一個關鍵的鍊鍊指標是支出的產出利潤率(SOPR),它檢查了所花費的硬幣的獲利能力。這提供了對投資者情緒的見解,並實現了收益/損失。當比特幣持有人實現巨額利潤時,它通常會標誌著市場的峰值,而高損失表示市場底層。

Technical indicators play a role in assessing Bitcoin's price action and momentum. Among the many technical indicators available, the Bitcoin Crosby Ratio is included in this indicator. It assesses Bitcoin's overextended or discounted conditions purely based on price action. This ensures that market sentiment and momentum are also accounted for in the Bitcoin Everything Indicator.

技術指標在評估比特幣的價格行動和動力方面發揮了作用。在可用的許多技術指標中,該指標包括比特幣Crosby比率。它純粹基於價格行動來評估比特幣過度延伸或打折的條件。這樣可以確保在比特幣中也考慮了市場情緒和動力。

Finally, network usage can offer vital clues about Bitcoin's strength and activity levels. This indicator incorporates the Active Address Sentiment Indicator (AASI), which examines the percentage change in active addresses over 28 days. A rise in active addresses generally confirms a bullish trend, while stagnation or decline may signal price weakness.

最後,網絡使用可以提供有關比特幣的強度和活動水平的重要線索。該指標包含了主動地址情感指標(AASI),該指標檢查了28天內活動地址的百分比變化。主動地址的上升通常證實了看漲的趨勢,而停滯或下降可能表示價格疲軟。

By blending these various metrics, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator ensures that no single factor is given undue weight. Unlike models that rely too heavily on specific signals, such as the MVRV Z-Score or the Pi Cycle Top, this indicator distributes influence equally across multiple categories. This prevents overfitting and allows the model to adapt to changing market conditions.

通過混合這些各種指標,比特幣所有指標確保沒有任何一個因素給予不適當的重量。與過於嚴重依賴特定信號的模型,例如MVRV z得分或PI循環頂部,該指標在多個類別上平均分佈影響。這樣可以防止過度擬合,並允許模型適應不斷變化的市場狀況。

One of the most striking findings is that the Bitcoin Everything Indicator has outperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy since Bitcoin was valued at under $6. Using a strategy of accumulating Bitcoin during oversold conditions and gradually selling in overbought zones, investors using this model would have significantly increased their portfolio's performance with lower drawdowns.

最引人注目的發現之一是,比特幣所有指標的表現都超出了簡單的購買策略,因為比特幣的價值低於6美元。使用在超售條件下積累比特幣並逐漸銷售過多購買區域的策略,使用此模型的投資者將大大提高其投資組合的性能,而下降較低。

For instance, this model maintains a 20% drawdown compared to the 60-90% declines typically seen in Bitcoin's history. This suggests that a well-balanced, data-driven approach can help investors make more informed decisions with reduced downside risk.

例如,與比特幣歷史記錄中常見的60-90%下降相比,該模型保持20%的水位。這表明一種均衡,數據驅動的方法可以幫助投資者做出更明智的決定,並減少下行風險。

To summarize, the Bitcoin Everything Indicator merges the most critical aspects influencing Bitcoin's price action into a single metric for ease of use. It has historically outperformed simple buy-and-hold strategies while mitigating risk, making it a valuable tool for both retail and institutional investors.

總而言之,比特幣所有指標都將影響比特幣的價格動作的最關鍵方面合併為單個指標,以易於使用。從歷史上看,它在減輕風險的同時,它超過了簡單的購買策略,使其成為零售和機構投資者的寶貴工具。

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