比特币历史性上涨至 108,000 美元背后的原因是什么？从特朗普的讲话到 ETF 和 MicroStrategy 的大规模购买，重大机构供应紧张是否正在发生？

比特币（BTC）再次成为人们关注的焦点。 12 月 17 日，BTC 攀升至 108,260 美元的历史新高，推动其在美国大选后的涨幅超过 50%。

Bitcoin (BTC) price hit a new all-time high of $108,260 on Dec. 17, continuing its impressive rally following the U.S. election. As of this writing, BTC price is trading around $106,663. Several factors are driving Bitcoin's new highs, including President-elect Donald Trump's proposal to establish a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve. During his speech at the New York Stock Exchange on December 12, Trump outlined his vision for America to "do something great with crypto" and build reserves similar to the existing strategic oil stockpile.

比特币 (BTC) 价格于 12 月 17 日创下 108,260 美元的历史新高，延续了美国大选后令人印象深刻的涨势。截至撰写本文时，BTC 价格约为 106,663 美元。有几个因素推动比特币创下新高，其中包括当选总统唐纳德·特朗普提出建立美国比特币战略储备的提议。 12 月 12 日，特朗普在纽约证券交易所发表演讲时概述了他对美国的愿景，即“利用加密货币做一些伟大的事情”，并建立类似于现有战略石油库存的储备。

Another key factor is the increasing institutional activity, particularly from MicroStrategy, which is known for its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy. In the past week alone, MicroStrategy announced that it had purchased $1.5 billion worth of BTC at an average price of $100,386 per coin. This recent acquisition brings the company's total Bitcoin holdings to 439,000 BTC, valued at around $47 billion. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy has paid off immensely, catapulting its market cap from $1.1 billion in 2020 to nearly $100 billion today. Furthermore, MicroStrategy's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index, effective next week, is also expected to boost further demand for its stock as funds and ETFs rebalance their portfolios.

另一个关键因素是机构活动的增加，特别是来自 MicroStrategy 的活动，该公司以其激进的比特币积累策略而闻名。仅在过去一周，MicroStrategy 就宣布以每枚代币 100,386 美元的平均价格购买了价值 15 亿美元的 BTC。最近的这次收购使该公司的比特币总持有量达到 439,000 BTC，价值约 470 亿美元。 MicroStrategy 的比特币战略取得了巨大回报，其市值从 2020 年的 11 亿美元跃升至如今的近 1000 亿美元。此外，随着基金和 ETF 重新平衡其投资组合，MicroStrategy 被纳入纳斯达克 100 指数（下周生效）预计也将进一步提振对其股票的需求。

Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) price also showed strong signs of life after a period of stagnation, climbing to a seven-day high of $4,106 on December 16—a 6% weekly gain. While ETH faced some minor retracement due to profit booking, it remains around the $3,950 mark as of this writing.

与此同时，以太坊 (ETH) 价格在经历了一段时间的停滞后也显示出强劲的复苏迹象，于 12 月 16 日攀升至 4,106 美元的 7 天高点，周涨幅为 6%。尽管 ETH 由于利润预订而面临一些小幅回调，但截至本文撰写时，其仍保持在 3,950 美元大关附近。

Let’s dive deeper into the key developments impacting Bitcoin and Ethereum, analyze the macroeconomic indicators shaping this bull run, and see what experts have to say about what could happen in the coming days.

让我们更深入地研究影响比特币和以太坊的关键发展，分析影响本次牛市的宏观经济指标，并看看专家对未来几天可能发生的情况有何看法。

Bitcoin price hits new highs, institutional demand fuels the rally

比特币价格再创新高，机构需求助推涨势

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum are displaying strong momentum, but the underlying story becomes clearer when we look at ETF inflows, liquidations, and futures open interest. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent inflows this month. Since December began, they’ve seen daily inflows every single day, adding over $5.16 billion as of Dec. 16. These inflows have pushed the total assets under management for Bitcoin ETFs to $123 billion — a strong signal of confidence, especially from institutional investors.

比特币和以太坊都表现出强劲的势头，但当我们观察 ETF 流入、清算和期货未平仓合约时，潜在的故事就变得更加清晰。现货比特币 ETF 本月持续流入。自 12 月开始以来，每天都有资金流入，截至 12 月 16 日增加超过 51.6 亿美元。这些资金流入将比特币 ETF 管理的总资产推至 1,230 亿美元——这是一个强烈的信心信号，尤其是机构投资者的信心。

Ethereum ETFs, however, tell a different story. Between their launch on Jul. 23 and Dec. 3, inflows were modest, reaching just $733.6 million. Compared to Bitcoin’s performance, this figure looks miniscule. But momentum has clearly shifted. Since Dec. 4, Ethereum ETFs have seen consistent inflows, adding $1.58 billion in a matter of days, suggesting that investors are warming up to Ethereum, likely encouraged by its price performance and Bitcoin’s strong market lead.

然而，以太坊 ETF 却讲述了一个不同的故事。从 7 月 23 日推出到 12 月 3 日，资金流入量不大，仅为 7.336 亿美元。与比特币的表现相比，这个数字显得微不足道。但势头明显发生了变化。自 12 月 4 日以来，以太坊 ETF 资金持续流入，几天之内就增加了 15.8 亿美元，这表明投资者正在对以太坊升温，这可能是受到其价格表现和比特币强劲的市场领先地位的鼓舞。

Now, let’s take a look at the liquidation data to add more context to what's happening in the market. Over the last 24 hours, as of Dec. 17, $339 million worth of positions were liquidated across the crypto market, with $205 million in longs and $134 million in shorts wiped out. For Bitcoin, total liquidations have been around $60 million, with short positions making up the majority at $30 million, compared to $29 million from longs, suggesting that many traders betting against Bitcoin’s rally were forced out of their positions as BTC climbed past $108,000. Ethereum saw even heavier liquidations, totaling $78.5 million, with shorts again taking a larger hit at $52 million, reflecting how ETH's recent price push to $4,100 surprised many bearish traders.

现在，让我们看一下清算数据，为市场上正在发生的事情添加更多背景信息。截至 12 月 17 日，过去 24 小时内，整个加密货币市场价值 3.39 亿美元的头寸被清算，其中 2.05 亿美元的多头头寸和 1.34 亿美元的空头头寸被清空。就比特币而言，清算总额约为 6000 万美元，其中空头头寸占多数，为 3000 万美元，而多头头寸为 2900 万美元，这表明，随着 BTC 攀升至 108,000 美元以上，许多看空比特币反弹的交易者被迫平仓。以太坊的清算量甚至更大，总计 7,850 万美元，空头再次遭受更大打击，达到 5,200 万美元，这反映出 ETH 最近的价格上涨至 4,100 美元让许多看跌交易者感到惊讶。

Bitcoin futures open interest — the total value of outstanding futures contracts — has also seen monumental growth. Back in early October, open interest sat at $32 billion. Following Trump’s election victory and the resulting bullish sentiment, that figure grew rapidly, reaching $55 billion by mid-November. Since then, open interest has continued to climb, hitting a massive $70 billion as of December 17. Rising open interest paired with increasing prices is a bullish signal, as it shows new money flowing into the market and traders placing bets on further upside.

比特币期货未平仓合约——未平仓期货合约的总价值——也出现了巨大的增长。早在 10 月初，未平仓合约就达到 320 亿美元。随着特朗普当选以及由此产生的看涨情绪，这一数字迅速增长，到 11 月中旬达到 550 亿美元。此后，未平仓合约持续攀升，截至 12 月 17 日已达到 700 亿美元。未平仓合约的增加与价格上涨相结合是一个看涨信号，因为它表明有新资金流入市场，交易者押注进一步上涨。

Put simply, Bitcoin’s rally isn’t running on fumes. ETF inflows are strong, futures activity is rising, and short sellers are being squeezed out of their positions. Ethereum, while slower to catch up, is now benefiting from the same momentum, with growing ETF inflows and shorts being liquidated. Both assets appear to have solid footing for their current uptrends, with institutional money and futures markets aligning to paint a bullish picture.

简而言之，比特币的反弹并非无功而返。 ETF 资金流入强劲，期货活动增加，卖空者被挤出头寸。以太坊虽然追赶速度较慢，但​​现在正受益于同样的势头，ETF 流入不断增加，空头被清算。这两种资产似乎都为当前的上涨趋势奠定了坚实的基础，机构资金和期货市场正在共同描绘出一幅看涨的图景。