比特币减半引发市场风暴，交易成本飙升

最近比特币减半后，由于 Runes 协议的实施以及在减半区块上创建 Rune 代币的高需求，交易成本急剧飙升。市场一直波动较大，比特币价格因地缘政治动荡而下跌。尽管减半预期会对稀缺性产生影响，但价格仍稳定在 63,000 美元左右，导致投机者感到失望。

Bitcoin's Halving Unleashes a Storm of Activity, Driving Transaction Costs Soaring

比特币减半引发活动风暴，交易成本飙升

Geopolitical Instability Exacerbates Market Turmoil

地缘政治不稳定加剧市场动荡

April 22, 2024

2024 年 4 月 22 日

The highly anticipated quadrennial Bitcoin halving materialized at the stroke of 1 AM on Saturday, sparking an unprecedented flurry of activity in the cryptocurrency market. Celebrated with fervor akin to a celestial spectacle, the halving event witnessed jubilant gatherings in locations ranging from a sprawling Norwegian farm to bustling urban hubs like Arnhem and Amsterdam.

备受期待的四年一度的比特币减半在周六凌晨 1 点钟声响起，引发了加密货币市场前所未有的热潮。这次减半活动以类似于天体奇观的热情庆祝，从广阔的挪威农场到阿纳姆和阿姆斯特丹等繁华的城市中心，人们都在庆祝。

The exact timing of the halving remained shrouded in uncertainty until the final moments, hinging upon a multitude of factors, including transaction volume and computational power deployed. In essence, a halving marks a pivotal moment when the block reward bestowed upon Bitcoin miners for their efforts in validating transactions on the blockchain is reduced by half.

直到最后时刻，减半的确切时间仍充满不确定性，取决于多种因素，包括交易量和部署的计算能力。从本质上讲，减半标志着一个关键时刻，比特币矿工因验证区块链交易而获得的区块奖励减少了一半。

A Tale of Unfulfilled Expectations

未实现期望的故事

The celebratory atmosphere surrounding the halving stemmed from the prevalent belief that this orchestrated scarcity—with only 21 million Bitcoins to be ever distributed—would inevitably lead to an upswing in the cryptocurrency's value. However, this anticipation has thus far been met with bitter disappointment.

围绕减半的庆祝气氛源于人们普遍认为，这种精心策划的稀缺性（只有 2100 万个比特币可供分发）将不可避免地导致加密货币价值的上涨。然而，这种期待迄今为止却遭遇了痛苦的失望。

Despite hovering around a stable value of $63,000, Bitcoin has failed to ignite the anticipated rally. The crypto market has already endured a substantial setback last weekend, witnessing a plunge from $71,000 to $62,000. On Wednesday, the price plummeted further, dipping below $60,000 before briefly touching a nadir of $59,600.

尽管比特币价格稳定在 63,000 美元左右徘徊，但它未能引发预期的反弹。上周末，加密货币市场已经遭受了重大挫折，从 71,000 美元暴跌至 62,000 美元。周三，价格进一步暴跌，跌破 60,000 美元，然后短暂触及 59,600 美元的最低点。

The exodus of speculators has been significant, with nearly $2 billion in liquidations processed on April 12 and 13 alone. Geopolitical turbulence has also played a pivotal role in this market downturn, with gold and stocks similarly suffering losses in the wake of Iran's missile and drone attacks on Israel.

投机者大量外流，仅 4 月 12 日和 13 日就处理了近 20 亿美元的清算。地缘政治动荡也在此次市场低迷中发挥了关键作用，在伊朗对以色列进行导弹和无人机袭击后，黄金和股市同样遭受损失。

Runes Protocol Complicates the Picture

符文协议使情况变得复杂

Coinciding with the halving, the newly launched Runes protocol further contributed to the market turmoil. The influx of users eager to generate Rune tokens on the halving block—number 840,000—triggered an explosion in transaction fees an hour after the event. Runes allows users to create fungible tokens, boasting enhancements in simplicity and security compared to its predecessor, BRC-20.

恰逢减半，新推出的符文协议进一步加剧了市场动荡。渴望在减半区块上生成 Rune 代币的用户大量涌入（数量为 840,000），引发了事件发生一小时后交易费用的爆炸式增长。 Runes 允许用户创建可替代的代币，与其前身 BRC-20 相比，其简单性和安全性得到了增强。

The Market's Unpredictable Trajectory

市场的不可预测轨迹

At the time of writing, Bitcoin hovers around €62,287, not far from its recent high of €66,768. The next halving is projected to occur in 2028, leaving the market to grapple with the lingering uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency's future trajectory. The interplay between halving events, geopolitical developments, and technological innovations will continue to shape the evolution of Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency landscape.

截至撰写本文时，比特币徘徊在 62,287 欧元左右，距离近期高点 66,768 欧元不远。预计下一次减半发生在 2028 年，市场将面临加密货币未来轨迹挥之不去的不确定性。减半事件、地缘政治发展和技术创新之间的相互作用将继续影响比特币和更广泛的加密货币格局的演变。