比特币减半时刻重置挖矿格局

备受期待的比特币减半事件于周五发生，矿工的区块奖励从每个区块 6.25 BTC 减半至 3.125 BTC。该事件旨在减缓新比特币的创建，标志着数字货币之旅的一个重要里程碑，影响矿工的利润并可能影响加密货币的长期价格轨迹。

The Halving Event: A Pivotal Moment in Bitcoin's History

减半事件：比特币历史上的关键时刻

On Friday, the highly anticipated bitcoin halving event unfolded, marking a significant milestone in the digital currency's journey. With minimal fanfare, the block reward for bitcoin miners was slashed in half, from 6.25 BTC per mined block to 3.125 BTC per block, occurring precisely at 8:09 p.m. ET.

周五，备受期待的比特币减半事件展开，标志着数字货币旅程的一个重要里程碑。在没有大张旗鼓的情况下，比特币矿工的区块奖励被削减了一半，从每个开采区块 6.25 BTC 减少到每个区块 3.125 BTC，发生时间恰好是晚上 8:09。等。

The halving, a predetermined occurrence every four years, primarily affects bitcoin miners, altering their block rewards and influencing their profitability. This mechanism, by halving the rate at which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation, underscores the cryptocurrency's inherent scarcity and potentially shapes its long-term trajectory.

减半是每四年一次的预定事件，主要影响比特币矿工，改变他们的区块奖励并影响他们的盈利能力。这种机制通过将新比特币进入流通的速度减半，强调了加密货币固有的稀缺性，并可能塑造其长期轨迹。

In the immediate aftermath of the halving, the broader markets remained relatively stable, with the price of bitcoin hovering around $65,000. However, the significance of this event extends beyond immediate price fluctuations, particularly for miners, traders, and investors.

减半后，大盘保持相对稳定，比特币价格徘徊在 65,000 美元左右。然而，这一事件的意义不仅仅在于立即的价格波动，特别是对于矿工、交易商和投资者而言。

Historical data suggests that halving events often precede significant price movements in bitcoin, with trading volume typically surging in the months leading up to the halving. Market analysts like Megan Stals, of trading platform Stake, have observed a notable increase in trading volume on crypto exchanges in March compared to February, indicating growing investor appetite.

历史数据表明，减半事件通常发生在比特币价格大幅波动之前，交易量通常在减半前的几个月激增。交易平台 Stake 的 Megan Stals 等市场分析师观察到，与 2 月份相比，3 月份加密货币交易所的交易量显着增加，这表明投资者的兴趣不断增长。

While the immediate impact on price may be subdued, historical performance suggests substantial returns in the coming months. Following halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, bitcoin's price surged approximately 93x, 30x, and 8x, respectively, from the day of halving to the peak of its cycle.

虽然对价格的直接影响可能会减弱，但历史表现表明未来几个月将带来可观的回报。在 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年减半之后，从减半之日到周期顶峰，比特币的价格分别飙升了约 93 倍、30 倍和 8 倍。

Hash rates, a measure of the computational power used in bitcoin mining, also come into focus following the halving. The adjustment in block rewards could influence miners' hash rate strategies, potentially impacting industry dynamics and profitability.

哈希率是比特币挖矿中使用的计算能力的衡量标准，在减半后也成为人们关注的焦点。区块奖励的调整可能会影响矿工的算力策略，从而可能影响行业动态和盈利能力。

A recent report by Cantor Fitzgerald highlights potential profitability challenges facing 11 major publicly-traded Bitcoin miners following the halving event. Companies like Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain, and Core Scientific may struggle to mine bitcoin profitably if prices do not significantly increase post-halving.

Cantor Fitzgerald 最近的一份报告强调了减半事件后 11 家主要上市比特币矿商面临的潜在盈利挑战。如果价格在减半后没有大幅上涨，Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain 和 Core Scientific 等公司可能很难在比特币开采中实现盈利。

Particularly, Argo Blockchain and Hut 8 Mining are cited as potentially facing profitability issues, with current "all in" cost-per-coin rates of $62,276 and $60,360, respectively, at the current Bitcoin price.

特别是，Argo Blockchain 和 Hut 8 Mining 被认为可能面临盈利问题，以当前比特币价格计算，当前“总”每币成本分别为 62,276 美元和 60,360 美元。

However, the halving event also presents challenges, particularly for miners. The halving effectively reduces industry revenues by half, prompting a wave of consolidation and potential business closures. Analysts speculate that this rationalization could ultimately benefit the remaining operators, leading to a more streamlined and efficient mining ecosystem.

然而，减半事件也带来了挑战，尤其是对矿工而言。减半实际上使行业收入减少了一半，引发了一波整合和潜在的企业倒闭。分析师推测，这种合理化最终可能会使剩余的运营商受益，从而形成更加精简和高效的采矿生态系统。

"Miners face a profitability squeeze [after the halving] event, due to the increased compute power and energy needed to mint new coins," said Stals. "Larger miners should have the resources to invest in new hardware and find more efficient energy sources, but each halving event makes it more difficult for smaller miners to stay in business."

斯塔尔斯表示：“由于铸造新币所需的计算能力和能源增加，[减半后]矿商面临着盈利能力的挤压。” “规模较大的矿商应该有资源投资新硬件并寻找更高效的能源，但每次减半事件都会让规模较小的矿商更难继续经营。”

While the initial halving in November 2012 saw a meteoric rise from approximately $11 to a peak of $1,100 in November 2013, the subsequent halvings also demonstrated significant price surges. After the second halving in July 2016, the price soared from around $650 to nearly $20,000 by December 2017. Similarly, the third halving propelled BTC to over $69,000 the following year.

虽然 2012 年 11 月首次减半的价格从约 11 美元迅速上涨至 2013 年 11 月的 1,100 美元峰值，但随后的减半也显示出价格的大幅上涨。 2016 年 7 月第二次减半后，到 2017 年 12 月，价格从 650 美元左右飙升至近 20,000 美元。同样，第二年第三次减半将 BTC 推升至 69,000 美元以上。

"While bitcoin's price has historically risen before and after each halving event, it has not always been a straight line up. Following previous halvings, prices have often pulled back before reaching a new peak around 220 and 240 days later," Stals added. "The halving is often portrayed as a short-term event, but it can take several months to see the full effect."

“虽然从历史上看，比特币的价格在每次减半事件前后都会上涨，但并不总是直线上涨。在之前的减半之后，价格经常会回落，然后在 220 天和 240 天左右达到新的峰值，”Stals 补充道。 “减半通常被描述为短期事件，但可能需要几个月的时间才能看到全部效果。”

A promising indicator for bitcoin's short-term price trajectory is the recent net inflow into bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that institutional investors are currently more inclined to buy rather than sell. Additionally, improving hash rates could also enhance miners' profitability by enabling them to mine more bitcoin at a faster rate, potentially offsetting the halving's effects.

比特币短期价格轨迹的一个有希望的指标是最近比特币 ETF 的净流入，这表明机构投资者目前更倾向于买入而不是卖出。此外，提高哈希率还可以提高矿工的盈利能力，使他们能够以更快的速度开采更多的比特币，从而可能抵消减半的影响。

According to bitcoin analyst Noelle Acheson, if the current cycle mirrors the previous one, bitcoin could potentially reach $450,000 in a year or $270,000 if it resembles the 2016 cycle more closely. However, utilizing data from Axios, Acheson suggests that bitcoin's price might climb even higher, potentially resulting in a staggering $35 trillion market capitalization for bitcoin.

比特币分析师诺埃尔·艾奇逊 (Noelle Acheson) 表示，如果当前周期与上一个周期一致，那么比特币可能在一年内达到 45 万美元，如果更接近 2016 年的周期，则可能达到 27 万美元。然而，利用 Axios 的数据，Acheson 表示比特币的价格可能会攀升得更高，从而可能导致比特币市值达到惊人的 35 万亿美元。

Pseudonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto established a strict limit of 21 million bitcoins for mining. With each halving, the pace of new bitcoin creation decelerates, and the final bitcoin is anticipated to be mined around the year 2140.

匿名创始人中本聪设定了 2100 万枚比特币的严格限制用于开采。随着每次减半，新比特币的创造速度都会减慢，最终的比特币预计将在 2140 年左右被开采出来。

Investors are eagerly anticipating the impact of the bitcoin halving event on the cryptocurrency's price and market dynamics in the upcoming weeks and months. The halving, a pivotal moment for bitcoin, underscores its scarcity, potentially shapes its long-term trajectory, and presents both opportunities and challenges for miners, traders, and investors alike.

投资者热切期待比特币减半事件对未来几周和几个月的加密货币价格和市场动态的影响。减半是比特币的关键时刻，凸显了其稀缺性，有可能塑造其长期轨迹，并为矿工、交易者和投资者带来了机遇和挑战。