比特幣減半時刻重置挖礦格局

備受期待的比特幣減半事件於週五發生，礦工的區塊獎勵從每個區塊 6.25 BTC 減半至 3.125 BTC。該事件旨在減緩新比特幣的創建，標誌著數位貨幣之旅的一個重要里程碑，影響礦工的利潤並可能影響加密貨幣的長期價格軌跡。

The Halving Event: A Pivotal Moment in Bitcoin's History

減半事件：比特幣史上的關鍵時刻

On Friday, the highly anticipated bitcoin halving event unfolded, marking a significant milestone in the digital currency's journey. With minimal fanfare, the block reward for bitcoin miners was slashed in half, from 6.25 BTC per mined block to 3.125 BTC per block, occurring precisely at 8:09 p.m. ET.

週五，備受期待的比特幣減半事件展開，標誌著數位貨幣旅程的一個重要里程碑。在沒有大張旗鼓的情況下，比特幣礦工的區塊獎勵被削減了一半，從每個開採區塊 6.25 BTC 減少到每個區塊 3.125 BTC，發生時間恰好是晚上 8:09。等。

The halving, a predetermined occurrence every four years, primarily affects bitcoin miners, altering their block rewards and influencing their profitability. This mechanism, by halving the rate at which new bitcoins are introduced into circulation, underscores the cryptocurrency's inherent scarcity and potentially shapes its long-term trajectory.

減半是每四年一次的預定事件，主要影響比特幣礦工，改變他們的區塊獎勵並影響他們的獲利能力。這種機制透過將新比特幣進入流通的速度減半，強調了加密貨幣固有的稀缺性，並可能塑造其長期軌跡。

In the immediate aftermath of the halving, the broader markets remained relatively stable, with the price of bitcoin hovering around $65,000. However, the significance of this event extends beyond immediate price fluctuations, particularly for miners, traders, and investors.

減半後，大盤保持相對穩定，比特幣價格徘徊在 65,000 美元左右。然而，這事件的意義不僅僅在於立即的價格波動，特別是對於礦工、交易商和投資者而言。

Historical data suggests that halving events often precede significant price movements in bitcoin, with trading volume typically surging in the months leading up to the halving. Market analysts like Megan Stals, of trading platform Stake, have observed a notable increase in trading volume on crypto exchanges in March compared to February, indicating growing investor appetite.

歷史數據表明，減半事件通常發生在比特幣價格大幅波動之前，交易量通常在減半前的幾個月激增。交易平台 Stake 的 Megan Stals 等市場分析師觀察到，與 2 月相比，3 月加密貨幣交易所的交易量顯著增加，這表明投資者的興趣不斷增長。

While the immediate impact on price may be subdued, historical performance suggests substantial returns in the coming months. Following halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, bitcoin's price surged approximately 93x, 30x, and 8x, respectively, from the day of halving to the peak of its cycle.

雖然對價格的直接影響可能會減弱，但歷史表現表明未來幾個月將帶來可觀的回報。在 2012 年、2016 年和 2020 年減半之後，從減半之日到週期頂峰，比特幣的價格分別飆升了約 93 倍、30 倍和 8 倍。

Hash rates, a measure of the computational power used in bitcoin mining, also come into focus following the halving. The adjustment in block rewards could influence miners' hash rate strategies, potentially impacting industry dynamics and profitability.

哈希率是比特幣挖礦中使用的運算能力的衡量標準，在減半後也成為人們關注的焦點。區塊獎勵的調整可能會影響礦工的算力策略，可能會影響產業動態和獲利能力。

A recent report by Cantor Fitzgerald highlights potential profitability challenges facing 11 major publicly-traded Bitcoin miners following the halving event. Companies like Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain, and Core Scientific may struggle to mine bitcoin profitably if prices do not significantly increase post-halving.

Cantor Fitzgerald 最近的一份報告強調了減半事件後 11 家主要上市比特幣礦商面臨的潛在盈利挑戰。如果價格在減半後沒有大幅上漲，Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain 和 Core Scientific 等公司可能很難在比特幣開採中獲利。

Particularly, Argo Blockchain and Hut 8 Mining are cited as potentially facing profitability issues, with current "all in" cost-per-coin rates of $62,276 and $60,360, respectively, at the current Bitcoin price.

特別是，Argo Blockchain 和 Hut 8 Mining 被認為可能面臨盈利問題，以當前比特幣價格計算，當前「總」每幣成本分別為 62,276 美元和 60,360 美元。

However, the halving event also presents challenges, particularly for miners. The halving effectively reduces industry revenues by half, prompting a wave of consolidation and potential business closures. Analysts speculate that this rationalization could ultimately benefit the remaining operators, leading to a more streamlined and efficient mining ecosystem.

然而，減半事件也帶來了挑戰，尤其是對礦工而言。減半實際上使行業收入減少了一半，引發了一波整合和潛在的企業倒閉。分析師推測，這種合理化最終可能會使剩餘的業者受益，從而形成更精簡和高效的採礦生態系統。

"Miners face a profitability squeeze [after the halving] event, due to the increased compute power and energy needed to mint new coins," said Stals. "Larger miners should have the resources to invest in new hardware and find more efficient energy sources, but each halving event makes it more difficult for smaller miners to stay in business."

斯塔爾斯表示：“由於鑄造新幣所需的計算能力和能源增加，[減半後]礦商面臨著盈利能力的擠壓。” “規模較大的礦商應該有資源投資新硬體並尋找更有效率的能源，但每次減半事件都會讓規模較小的礦商更難繼續經營。”

While the initial halving in November 2012 saw a meteoric rise from approximately $11 to a peak of $1,100 in November 2013, the subsequent halvings also demonstrated significant price surges. After the second halving in July 2016, the price soared from around $650 to nearly $20,000 by December 2017. Similarly, the third halving propelled BTC to over $69,000 the following year.

雖然 2012 年 11 月首次減半的價格從約 11 美元迅速上漲至 2013 年 11 月的 1,100 美元峰值，但隨後的減半也顯示出價格的大幅上漲。 2016 年 7 月第二次減半後，到 2017 年 12 月，價格從 650 美元左右飆升至近 20,000 美元。

"While bitcoin's price has historically risen before and after each halving event, it has not always been a straight line up. Following previous halvings, prices have often pulled back before reaching a new peak around 220 and 240 days later," Stals added. "The halving is often portrayed as a short-term event, but it can take several months to see the full effect."

「雖然從歷史上看，比特幣的價格在每次減半事件前後都會上漲，但並不總是直線上漲。在之前的減半之後，價格經常會回落，然後在220 天和240 天左右達到新的峰值，”Stals 補充道。 “減半通常被描述為短期事件，但可能需要幾個月的時間才能看到全部效果。”

A promising indicator for bitcoin's short-term price trajectory is the recent net inflow into bitcoin ETFs, suggesting that institutional investors are currently more inclined to buy rather than sell. Additionally, improving hash rates could also enhance miners' profitability by enabling them to mine more bitcoin at a faster rate, potentially offsetting the halving's effects.

比特幣短期價格軌跡的一個有希望的指標是最近比特幣 ETF 的淨流入，這表明機構投資者目前更傾向於買入而不是賣出。此外，提高哈希率還可以提高礦工的獲利能力，使他們能夠以更快的速度開採更多的比特幣，這可能會抵消減半的影響。

According to bitcoin analyst Noelle Acheson, if the current cycle mirrors the previous one, bitcoin could potentially reach $450,000 in a year or $270,000 if it resembles the 2016 cycle more closely. However, utilizing data from Axios, Acheson suggests that bitcoin's price might climb even higher, potentially resulting in a staggering $35 trillion market capitalization for bitcoin.

比特幣分析師諾埃爾·艾奇遜(Noelle Acheson) 表示，如果當前週期與上一個週期一致，那麼比特幣可能在一年內達到45 萬美元，如果更接近2016 年的週期，則可能達到27萬美元。然而，利用 Axios 的數據，Acheson 表示比特幣的價格可能會攀升得更高，可能會導致比特幣市值達到驚人的 35 兆美元。

Pseudonymous founder Satoshi Nakamoto established a strict limit of 21 million bitcoins for mining. With each halving, the pace of new bitcoin creation decelerates, and the final bitcoin is anticipated to be mined around the year 2140.

匿名創始人中本聰設定了 2,100 萬枚比特幣的嚴格限制用於開採。隨著每次減半，新比特幣的創造速度都會減慢，最終的比特幣預計將在 2140 年左右被開採。

Investors are eagerly anticipating the impact of the bitcoin halving event on the cryptocurrency's price and market dynamics in the upcoming weeks and months. The halving, a pivotal moment for bitcoin, underscores its scarcity, potentially shapes its long-term trajectory, and presents both opportunities and challenges for miners, traders, and investors alike.

投資者熱切期待比特幣減半事件對未來幾週和幾個月的加密貨幣價格和市場動態的影響。減半是比特幣的關鍵時刻，凸顯了其稀缺性，有可能塑造其長期軌跡，並為礦工、交易者和投資者帶來了機會和挑戰。