比特币“减半”迫在眉睫：专家预测对挖矿的影响，价格波动不大

随着备受期待的比特币软件“减半”临近，摩根大通和德意志银行的分析师预计，其对加密货币价值的影响已经被市场考虑在内。每四年发生一次的减半减少了验证交易的采矿奖励，可能导致采矿业内部的整合，并转向在公共交易所上市的更高效的运营商。

Bitcoin "Halving" Event Imminent: Impact on Mining and Cryptocurrency Market

比特币“减半”事件迫在眉睫：对挖矿和加密货币市场的影响

New York, May 12, 2024 (Bloomberg) - As the highly anticipated Bitcoin software update, known as the "halving," approaches, financial analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co and Deutsche Bank AG assert that its potential market impact has largely been anticipated.

纽约，2024 年 5 月 12 日（彭博社）——随着备受期待的比特币软件更新（即“减半”）临近，摩根大通和德意志银行的金融分析师断言，其潜在的市场影响基本上已经在预料之中。

Occurring approximately every four years, the halving event entails a 50% reduction in the reward granted to Bitcoin miners for verifying and adding new blocks to the blockchain. This reduction is designed to control the issuance of new Bitcoins and maintain the scarcity of the cryptocurrency.

减半事件大约每四年发生一次，比特币矿工验证并向区块链添加新区块的奖励将减少 50%。此次减少旨在控制新比特币的发行并维持加密货币的稀缺性。

According to a research note issued by JPMorgan analysts on Thursday, the primary impact of the halving will be on Bitcoin mining rather than the token's price. As the halving reduces the profitability of mining, less efficient miners are expected to exit the network, leading to consolidation and market share gains for publicly traded mining companies.

根据摩根大通分析师周四发布的一份研究报告，减半的主要影响将是对比特币挖矿的影响，而不是对代币价格的影响。由于减半降低了挖矿的盈利能力，效率较低的矿商预计将退出网络，从而导致上市矿业公司的整合和市场份额的增加。

"Publicly-listed Bitcoin miners are well-positioned to exploit the new market dynamics, primarily due to their superior access to financial resources, including equity financing," the JPMorgan analysts wrote. "This advantage allows them to expand their operations and invest in more efficient mining equipment."

摩根大通分析师写道：“公开上市的比特币矿商处于有利地位，可以利用新的市场动态，这主要是因为它们能够更好地获得金融资源，包括股权融资。” “这一优势使他们能够扩大业务并投资更高效的采矿设备。”

Deutsche Bank's analysts concur, dismissing the notion that the halving will result in a significant surge in Bitcoin prices. They maintain that the market has already priced in this event, as the Bitcoin algorithm has anticipated the halving's impact.

德意志银行的分析师对此表示同意，驳斥了减半将导致比特币价格大幅上涨的观点。他们认为，市场已经对这一事件进行了定价，因为比特币算法已经预料到了减半的影响。

"The event decreases the block reward, a fixed amount of Bitcoin released to compensate miners for validating transactions, by half every four years," the Deutsche Bank analysts explained. "This adjustment likely became effective on Friday, according to data from mempool.space, a crypto-mining analytics website."

德意志银行分析师解释说：“该事件使区块奖励（即为补偿矿工验证交易而释放的固定数量的比特币）每四年减少一半。” “根据加密货币挖矿分析网站 mempool.space 的数据，这一调整可能会在周五生效。”

Historically, halving events have been associated with a decline in the hashrate, which measures the aggregate mining capacity of the Bitcoin network. This is because the reduced mining rewards make it less profitable for miners to participate in the process of guessing the hash and validating new blocks.

从历史上看，减半事件与算力下降有关，算力衡量比特币网络的总挖矿能力。这是因为采矿奖励的减少使得矿工参与猜测哈希值和验证新区块的过程的利润减少。

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Bitcoin's previous three halving events led to hashrate drops of 25%, 11%, and 25%, respectively.

德意志银行分析师指出，比特币前三次减半事件导致算力分别下降了 25%、11% 和 25%。

Despite downplaying the potential for drastic price fluctuations, Deutsche Bank remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. They cite the anticipation of spot Ethereum ETF approvals, potential interest rate cuts by central banks, and favorable regulatory developments as factors contributing to their positive outlook.

尽管淡化了价格剧烈波动的可能性，德意志银行仍然看好比特币的长期前景。他们指出，以太坊 ETF 现货获批的预期、央行可能降息以及有利的监管发展是其乐观前景的因素。

"Moreover, the proliferation of layer-2 solutions and decentralized finance (DeFi) initiatives, which enhance the network's utility, creates a favorable ecosystem for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market," they wrote.

他们写道：“此外，第二层解决方案和去中心化金融（DeFi）举措的激增增强了网络的实用性，为比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场创造了有利的生态系统。”

Currently, the United States accounts for approximately 40% of global Bitcoin mining activity. However, both JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank predict that post-halving, mining companies may seek to relocate their less efficient equipment to regions with lower energy costs. Potential destinations include Latin America and Africa, where mining operations can be sustained at a lower operating cost.

目前，美国约占全球比特币挖矿活动的 40%。然而，摩根大通和德意志银行预测，减半后，矿业公司可能会寻求将效率较低的设备转移到能源成本较低的地区。潜在的目的地包括拉丁美洲和非洲，这些地方的采矿作业可以以较低的运营成本维持。

Bloomberg News reached out to Isabelle Lee for additional insights.

彭博新闻联系伊莎贝尔·李寻求更多见解。