比特幣「減半」迫在眉睫：專家預測對挖礦的影響，價格波動不大

隨著備受期待的比特幣軟體「減半」臨近，摩根大通和德意志銀行的分析師預計，其對加密貨幣價值的影響已被市場考慮在內。每四年發生一次的減半減少了驗證交易的採礦獎勵，可能導致採礦業內部的整合，並轉向在公共交易所上市的更有效率的營運商。

Bitcoin "Halving" Event Imminent: Impact on Mining and Cryptocurrency Market

比特幣「減半」事件迫在眉睫：對挖礦和加密貨幣市場的影響

New York, May 12, 2024 (Bloomberg) - As the highly anticipated Bitcoin software update, known as the "halving," approaches, financial analysts from JPMorgan Chase & Co and Deutsche Bank AG assert that its potential market impact has largely been anticipated.

紐約，2024 年5 月12 日（彭博）—隨著備受期待的比特幣軟體更新（即「減半」）臨近，摩根大通和德意志銀行的金融分析師斷言，其潛在的市場影響基本上已經在預料之中。

Occurring approximately every four years, the halving event entails a 50% reduction in the reward granted to Bitcoin miners for verifying and adding new blocks to the blockchain. This reduction is designed to control the issuance of new Bitcoins and maintain the scarcity of the cryptocurrency.

減半事件大約每四年發生一次，比特幣礦工驗證並在區塊鏈中添加新區塊的獎勵將減少 50%。此次減少旨在控制新比特幣的發行並維持加密貨幣的稀缺性。

According to a research note issued by JPMorgan analysts on Thursday, the primary impact of the halving will be on Bitcoin mining rather than the token's price. As the halving reduces the profitability of mining, less efficient miners are expected to exit the network, leading to consolidation and market share gains for publicly traded mining companies.

根據摩根大通分析師週四發布的一份研究報告，減半的主要影響將是對比特幣挖礦的影響，而不是對代幣價格的影響。由於減半降低了挖礦的獲利能力，效率較低的礦商預計將退出網絡，導致上市礦業公司的整合和市場份額的增加。

"Publicly-listed Bitcoin miners are well-positioned to exploit the new market dynamics, primarily due to their superior access to financial resources, including equity financing," the JPMorgan analysts wrote. "This advantage allows them to expand their operations and invest in more efficient mining equipment."

摩根大通分析師寫道：“公開上市的比特幣礦商處於有利地位，可以利用新的市場動態，這主要是因為它們能夠更好地獲得金融資源，包括股權融資。” “這一優勢使他們能夠擴大業務並投資更有效率的採礦設備。”

Deutsche Bank's analysts concur, dismissing the notion that the halving will result in a significant surge in Bitcoin prices. They maintain that the market has already priced in this event, as the Bitcoin algorithm has anticipated the halving's impact.

德意志銀行的分析師對此表示同意，駁斥了減半將導致比特幣價格大幅上漲的觀點。他們認為，市場已經對這事件進行了定價，因為比特幣演算法已經預料到了減半的影響。

"The event decreases the block reward, a fixed amount of Bitcoin released to compensate miners for validating transactions, by half every four years," the Deutsche Bank analysts explained. "This adjustment likely became effective on Friday, according to data from mempool.space, a crypto-mining analytics website."

德意志銀行分析師解釋說：“該事件使區塊獎勵（即為補償礦工驗證交易而釋放的固定數量的比特幣）每四年減少一半。” “根據加密貨幣挖礦分析網站 mempool.space 的數據，這項調整可能會在周五生效。”

Historically, halving events have been associated with a decline in the hashrate, which measures the aggregate mining capacity of the Bitcoin network. This is because the reduced mining rewards make it less profitable for miners to participate in the process of guessing the hash and validating new blocks.

從歷史上看，減半事件與算力下降有關，算力衡量比特幣網路的總挖礦能力。這是因為採礦獎勵的減少使得礦工參與猜測哈希值和驗證新區塊的過程的利潤減少。

Deutsche Bank analysts note that Bitcoin's previous three halving events led to hashrate drops of 25%, 11%, and 25%, respectively.

德意志銀行分析師指出，比特幣前三次減半事件導致算力分別下降了 25%、11% 和 25%。

Despite downplaying the potential for drastic price fluctuations, Deutsche Bank remains bullish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. They cite the anticipation of spot Ethereum ETF approvals, potential interest rate cuts by central banks, and favorable regulatory developments as factors contributing to their positive outlook.

儘管淡化了價格劇烈波動的可能性，德意志銀行仍看好比特幣的長期前景。他們指出，以太坊 ETF 現貨獲批的預期、央行可能降息以及有利的監管發展是其樂觀前景的因素。

"Moreover, the proliferation of layer-2 solutions and decentralized finance (DeFi) initiatives, which enhance the network's utility, creates a favorable ecosystem for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market," they wrote.

他們寫道：“此外，第二層解決方案和去中心化金融（DeFi）舉措的激增增強了網路的實用性，為比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場創造了有利的生態系統。”

Currently, the United States accounts for approximately 40% of global Bitcoin mining activity. However, both JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank predict that post-halving, mining companies may seek to relocate their less efficient equipment to regions with lower energy costs. Potential destinations include Latin America and Africa, where mining operations can be sustained at a lower operating cost.

目前，美國約佔全球比特幣挖礦活動的 40%。然而，摩根大通和德意志銀行預測，減半後，礦業公司可能會尋求將效率較低的設備轉移到能源成本較低的地區。潛在的目的地包括拉丁美洲和非洲，這些地方的採礦作業可以以較低的營運成本維持。

Bloomberg News reached out to Isabelle Lee for additional insights.

彭博新聞聯繫伊莎貝爾李尋求更多見解。