现货 ETF 可能会抑制比特币减半

Glassnode 表示，即将到来的比特币减半可能不会引发市场曾经预期的供应紧张。现货 ETF 的兴起通过大量持续的购买活动收紧了可用供应，从而抢占了减半的影响，从而可能减轻供应紧缩效应。然而，报告警告说，ETF 的看涨影响力并不能得到保证，资金流出可能会导致巨大的抛售压力。

Could the Bitcoin Halving Be a Dud?

比特币减半会是一场失败吗？

Glassnode, a prominent on-chain analytics firm, has cast a cloud over the impending Bitcoin halving, suggesting that its impact may be overshadowed by a formidable force: spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

著名的链上分析公司 Glassnode 给即将到来的比特币减半蒙上了一层阴影，表明其影响可能会被一股强大的力量所掩盖：现货交易所交易基金（ETF）。

What's the Big Deal about Halvings?

减半有什么大不了的？

Halvings are pivotal events in Bitcoin's existence. Every four years, the block reward for miners—the new BTC minted with each block solved—is slashed in half. This artificial scarcity has historically fueled rallies as supply tightens, boosting the value of existing coins.

减半是比特币存在的关键事件。每四年，矿工的区块奖励（每个区块被解决后铸造的新比特币）就会减少一半。从历史上看，这种人为的稀缺性曾在供应紧张时助长了涨势，从而推高了现有代币的价值。

But Now, We Have Spot ETFs

但现在，我们有现货 ETF

Spot ETFs are game changers. Unlike traditional futures ETFs, these instruments hold actual Bitcoin, providing investors with indirect exposure. Their presence on regular exchanges has opened the floodgates to institutional and retail demand.

现货 ETF 是游戏规则的改变者。与传统的期货 ETF 不同，这些工具持有实际的比特币，为投资者提供间接敞口。它们在定期交易所的存在为机构和零售需求打开了闸门。

ETFs: Preempting the Halving?

ETF：抢先减半？

Glassnode's analysis reveals that spot ETF inflows have been dwarfing miner issuance since the start of the year. As a result, they argue that "the upcoming halving might not result in the supply squeeze once anticipated."

Glassnode 的分析显示，自今年年初以来，现货 ETF 流入量一直让矿商发行量相形见绌。因此，他们认为“即将到来的减半可能不会导致预期的供应紧张。”

ETFs: A Double-Edged Sword

ETF：一把双刃剑

While ETFs have fueled demand, they could also become a source of volatility. If inflows reverse, a flood of outflows could unleash significant selling pressure on the market. Notably, netflows have dipped into negative territory in recent days, suggesting a potential shift.

虽然 ETF 刺激了需求，但它们也可能成为波动的根源。如果资金流入逆转，资金大量流出可能会给市场带来巨大的抛售压力。值得注意的是，最近几天净流量已跌至负值，这表明可能出现转变。

BTC Price: Cooling Off

比特币价格：降温

Despite yesterday's rally, Bitcoin has since retreated, hovering around $64,200. This pullback suggests that the halving's impact may not be an immediate game-changer.

尽管昨天有所上涨，但比特币此后有所回落，徘徊在 64,200 美元附近。这种回调表明减半的影响可能不会立即改变游戏规则。

Bottom Line: A Shrugged Halving?

底线：耸耸肩减半？

Glassnode's observations raise questions about the extent to which the halving will drive up Bitcoin's price. Spot ETFs may have preempted the supply squeeze, rendering the event less bullish than in previous cycles. However, their potential to create volatility remains a factor to watch. As always, investors should tread carefully in this dynamic market.

Glassnode 的观察引发了人们对减半将在多大程度上推高比特币价格的疑问。现货 ETF 可能抢占了供应紧张的先机，导致该事件的看涨程度不如之前的周期。然而，它们造成波动的潜力仍然是一个值得关注的因素。一如既往，投资者在这个充满活力的市场中应谨慎行事。