現貨 ETF 可能會抑制比特幣減半

Glassnode 表示，即將到來的比特幣減半可能不會引發市場曾經預期的供應緊張。現貨 ETF 的興起透過大量持續的購買活動收緊了可用供應，從而搶佔了減半的影響，從而可能減輕供應緊縮效應。然而，報告警告說，ETF 的看漲影響力並不能得到保證，資金流出可能會導致巨大的拋售壓力。

Could the Bitcoin Halving Be a Dud?

比特幣減半會是一場失敗嗎？

Glassnode, a prominent on-chain analytics firm, has cast a cloud over the impending Bitcoin halving, suggesting that its impact may be overshadowed by a formidable force: spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

著名的鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 為即將到來的比特幣減半蒙上了一層陰影，表明其影響可能會被一股強大的力量所掩蓋：現貨交易所交易基金（ETF）。

What's the Big Deal about Halvings?

減半有什麼大不了的？

Halvings are pivotal events in Bitcoin's existence. Every four years, the block reward for miners—the new BTC minted with each block solved—is slashed in half. This artificial scarcity has historically fueled rallies as supply tightens, boosting the value of existing coins.

減半是比特幣存在的關鍵事件。每四年，礦工的區塊獎勵（每個區塊被解決後鑄造的新比特幣）就會減少一半。從歷史上看，這種人為的稀缺性曾在供應緊張時助長了漲勢，從而推高了現有代幣的價值。

But Now, We Have Spot ETFs

但現在，我們有現貨 ETF

Spot ETFs are game changers. Unlike traditional futures ETFs, these instruments hold actual Bitcoin, providing investors with indirect exposure. Their presence on regular exchanges has opened the floodgates to institutional and retail demand.

現貨 ETF 是遊戲規則的改變者。與傳統的期貨 ETF 不同，這些工具持有實際的比特幣，為投資者提供間接曝險。它們在定期交易所的存在為機構和零售需求打開了閘門。

ETFs: Preempting the Halving?

ETF：搶先減半？

Glassnode's analysis reveals that spot ETF inflows have been dwarfing miner issuance since the start of the year. As a result, they argue that "the upcoming halving might not result in the supply squeeze once anticipated."

Glassnode 的分析顯示，自今年年初以來，現貨 ETF 流入量一直讓礦商發行量相形見絀。因此，他們認為“即將到來的減半可能不會導致預期的供應緊張。”

ETFs: A Double-Edged Sword

ETF：一把雙面刃

While ETFs have fueled demand, they could also become a source of volatility. If inflows reverse, a flood of outflows could unleash significant selling pressure on the market. Notably, netflows have dipped into negative territory in recent days, suggesting a potential shift.

雖然 ETF 刺激了需求，但它們也可能成為波動的根源。如果資金流入逆轉，資金大量流出可能會對市場造成巨大的拋售壓力。值得注意的是，最近幾天淨流量已跌至負值，這表明可能出現轉變。

BTC Price: Cooling Off

比特幣價格：降溫

Despite yesterday's rally, Bitcoin has since retreated, hovering around $64,200. This pullback suggests that the halving's impact may not be an immediate game-changer.

儘管昨天有所上漲，但比特幣此後有所回落，徘徊在 64,200 美元附近。這種回調表明減半的影響可能不會立即改變遊戲規則。

Bottom Line: A Shrugged Halving?

底線：聳聳肩減半？

Glassnode's observations raise questions about the extent to which the halving will drive up Bitcoin's price. Spot ETFs may have preempted the supply squeeze, rendering the event less bullish than in previous cycles. However, their potential to create volatility remains a factor to watch. As always, investors should tread carefully in this dynamic market.

Glassnode 的觀察引發了人們對減半將在多大程度上推高比特幣價格的疑問。現貨 ETF 可能搶佔了供應緊張的先機，導致該事件的看漲程度不如先前的周期。然而，它們造成波動的潛力仍然是值得關注的因素。一如既往，投資者在這個充滿活力的市場中應謹慎行事。