XRP價格分析：Ripple為何崩盤？

隨著最近的漲勢暫停，XRP 幣大幅下跌。這種下跌主要是由於比特幣在周末表現疲軟，以及一些投資者在表現強勁後喘口氣。

Ripple (XRP) price suffered a harsh reversal on Sunday evening, moving into a bear market as the recent momentum faded. The XRP token dropped from the year-to-date high of $1.6270 to a low of $1.300.

瑞波幣（XRP）價格在周日晚間遭遇嚴重逆轉，隨著近期勢頭消退，進入熊市。 XRP 代幣從年初至今的高點 1.6270 美元跌至低點 1.300 美元。

XRP price analysis: why did Ripple crash?

XRP價格分析：Ripple為何崩盤？

The XRP coin dropped sharply on Sunday evening as the recent rally took a breather. This decline was mainly driven by Bitcoin’s weakness during the weekend and as some investors took a breather after a solid performance.

隨著最近的漲勢暫停，瑞波幣週日晚間大幅下跌。此次下跌主要是由於比特幣週末疲軟以及一些投資者在表現強勁後稍作喘息所致。

Bitcoin retreated to $97,000 in the overnight session as the journey to $100,000 stalled. Most of the time, altcoins like Ripple, Cardano, and Solana drop sharply when Bitcoin is losing momentum.

比特幣在隔夜交易中回落至 97,000 美元，而 100,000 美元的旅程陷入停滯。大多數時候，當比特幣失去動力時，Ripple、Cardano 和 Solana 等山寨幣就會大幅下跌。

Technically, as we warned about Stellar Lumens, XRP price crashed because of mean reversion. At its highest level last week, XRP was up by over 165% above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). It was also up by 150% from its 50-day moving average. Mean reversion is a situation where an asset drops back to the moving average.

從技術上講，正如我們對 Stellar Lumens 發出的警告，XRP 價格因均值回歸而暴跌。 XRP 達到上週的最高水平，較 200 天指數移動平均線 (EMA) 上漲超過 165%。它也比 50 日移動平均線上漲了 150%。均值回歸是指資產回落至移動平均線的情況。

XRP also dropped after the coin formed a doji candlestick pattern, which is characterized by a small body and long upper and lower shadows. Most of the time, a doji leads to a strong bearish breakout.

在硬幣形成十字燭台圖案後，XRP 也下跌，圖案的特點是燭身較小，上下影線較長。大多數時候，十字星會導致強烈的看跌突破。

The ongoing Ripple retreat could push more retail traders to start liquidating their positions in a bid to preserve their profits. Moreover, this is a coin that jumped by over 320% from its lowest point in July.

瑞波幣持續回落可能促使更多散戶開始清算頭寸，以保住利潤。此外，這枚代幣從 7 月的最低點上漲了 320% 以上。

Therefore, the coin may drop to the next key support at $1.00, which is a psychological level and also slightly above the key point at $0.9321, its highest level in July last year. This price action is known as a break and retest and is one of the most popular continuation signs in the market.

因此，該代幣可能會跌至下一個關鍵支撐位1.00美元，這是一個心理水平，也略高於關鍵點0.9321美元，這是去年7月的最高水平。這種價格走勢被稱為突破和重新測試，是市場上最受歡迎的持續訊號之一。

The alternative scenario is where the coin consolidates at the current level as it forms either a bullish flag or a pennant, popular continuation pattern. If this happens, more gains will be confirmed if the XRP price rises above the key resistance level at $1.6270, its highest level this year.

另一種情況是代幣在當前水平盤整，形成看漲旗形或三角旗、流行的延續模式。如果發生這種情況，如果 XRP 價格升至今年最高水準 1.6270 美元的關鍵阻力位，則將確認更多漲幅。

Why Ripple has surged

為何瑞波幣飆升

The main reason why the XRP price has soared is that the US elected Donald Trump to become the next president. He has already announced several crypto-friendly appointments, including Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent. He is also friendly with Vivek Ramaswamy and Elon Musk, who have expressed support for the industry.

XRP價格飆升的主要原因是美國選舉唐納德·川普成為下一任總統。他已經宣布了幾項對加密貨幣友好的任命，包括 Howard Lutnick 和 Scott Bessent。他與維韋克·拉馬斯瓦米 (Vivek Ramaswamy) 和 Elon Musk 也很友好，他們都表示了對該行業的支持。

Therefore, there is a possibility that he will also appoint a crypto-friendly head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). If this happens, there is a possibility that Ripple’s legal issues will end in 2023.

因此，他也有可能任命一位對加密貨幣友善的美國證券交易委員會（SEC）負責人。如果這種情況發生，Ripple 的法律問題有可能在 2023 年結束。

Ripple is also expected to launch its stablecoin, RLUSD, soon as it seeks to battle it out with Tether. If successful, it would lead to substantial profits for Ripple Labs since stablecoins have some of the highest margins in business. Still, the challenge is that the industry is highly competitive, with newer stablecoins like PayPal’s PYUSD struggling to gain market share.

Ripple 預計還將推出其穩定幣 RLUSD，以與 Tether 競爭。如果成功，它將為 Ripple Labs 帶來可觀的利潤，因為穩定幣在業務中擁有最高的利潤率。儘管如此，挑戰在於該行業競爭激烈，PayPal 的 PYUSD 等較新的穩定幣正在努力爭取市場份額。

The other big issue is that Ripple’s XRP Ledger network has struggled to gain traction among developers. Data shows that the network has a total value locked (TVL) of just $14.87 million, making it smaller than newer networks like Base and Sui.

另一個大問題是 Ripple 的 XRP Ledger 網路一直難以吸引開發者的注意。數據顯示，該網路的總鎖定價值（TVL）僅為 1,487 萬美元，比 Base 和 Sui 等較新的網路還要小。