比特币减半将提振加密货币领导者，但会阻碍关联投资

虽然比特币减半事件预计将推高比特币价格，但并非所有加密资产都会遵循这一趋势。由于挖矿奖励减少和监管调查，比特币矿业股和以太坊可能分别面临挫折。此外，与比特币相比，以太坊缺乏现货 ETF 以及美国证券交易委员会潜在的怀疑，使其成为一项不太有吸引力的投资。

Bitcoin Halving: A Boon for the Leading Cryptocurrency, a Bane for Related Investments

比特币减半：领先加密货币的福音，相关投资的祸根

The impending Bitcoin halving, a pivotal event scheduled for May 2024, has suscitated widespread anticipation among investors. While conventional wisdom suggests a surge in Bitcoin's price, this transformative event may not bode well for all crypto-related ventures. In fact, some experts predict a potential decline in the fortunes of certain Bitcoin mining stocks and Ethereum.

即将到来的比特币减半是定于 2024 年 5 月举行的关键事件，激发了投资者的广泛预期。虽然传统观点认为比特币价格飙升，但这一变革性事件对于所有与加密货币相关的企业来说可能并不是好兆头。事实上，一些专家预测某些比特币矿业股票和以太坊的财富可能会下跌。

Bitcoin Mining Stocks: A Shaky Future

比特币矿业股票：不稳定的未来

It may seem paradoxical that Bitcoin mining stocks, which enjoyed a meteoric rise in 2023, could face a market downturn following the halving. After all, these stocks were hailed as some of the most promising Bitcoin proxy investments. However, the halving mechanism introduces a significant change: the reward given to Bitcoin miners for adding new blocks to the blockchain will be halved. This translates to a reduction from 6.25 Bitcoins per block to 3.125 Bitcoins.

比特币矿业股在 2023 年飞速上涨，但在减半后却可能面临市场低迷，这似乎有些矛盾。毕竟，这些股票被誉为最有前途的比特币代理投资之一。然而，减半机制带来了一个重大变化：比特币矿工向区块链添加新区块的奖励将减半。这意味着每个区块的比特币数量从 6.25 比特币减少到 3.125 比特币。

The impact on revenue and earnings for Bitcoin miners such as Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital Holdings is substantial. Given the current market price of Bitcoin at approximately $66,000, these miners will effectively lose over $200,000 in revenue for each new block mined. Unless Bitcoin's price doubles, these companies may struggle to break even.

这对 Riot Platforms 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 等比特币矿商的收入和盈利产生了巨大影响。鉴于目前比特币的市场价格约为 66,000 美元，这些矿工每开采一个新区块，实际上将损失超过 200,000 美元的收入。除非比特币价格翻倍，否则这些公司可能难以实现收支平衡。

Consequently, a major shakeout is anticipated in the Bitcoin mining industry in 2024. Only the most efficient miners with the most powerful rigs will likely remain profitable. This bleak outlook casts a bearish shadow on the likes of Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital Holdings, their profitability directly and immediately impacted by the halving.

因此，预计 2024 年比特币挖矿行业将发生重大洗牌。只有拥有最强大矿机的最高效矿商才可能保持盈利。这种黯淡的前景给 Riot Platforms 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 等公司蒙上了悲观的阴影，它们的盈利能力立即受到减半的直接影响。

Ethereum: Collateral Damage

以太坊：附带损害

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, may also suffer as a consequence of the Bitcoin halving. This unfortunate coincidence stems from the timing of the halving, which comes at a critical juncture for Ethereum.

按市值计算的第二大加密货币以太坊也可能因比特币减半而受到影响。这一不幸的巧合源于减半的时机，而减半正值以太坊的关键时刻。

In mid-April 2024, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed a decision on approving spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) until later in the year. The initial hope was for approval in May, but that now appears unlikely. The earliest possible decision on an Ethereum ETF is June, although even this may be optimistic given the SEC's cautious approach in approving spot Bitcoin ETFs.

2024 年 4 月中旬，美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 将批准现货以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的决定推迟到今年晚些时候。最初的希望是在五月份获得批准，但现在看来可能性不大。关于以太坊 ETF 的最早可能决定是在 6 月份，尽管考虑到美国证券交易委员会在批准现货比特币 ETF 方面的谨慎态度，即使这也可能是乐观的。

Furthermore, there are growing concerns that the SEC may be investigating Ethereum, not due to any wrongdoing by the cryptocurrency but rather because the SEC is not fully convinced that Ethereum is not a "security." This designation has implications for investors, as securities are subject to different regulatory requirements than cryptocurrencies.

此外，人们越来越担心美国证券交易委员会可能正在调查以太坊，这并不是因为加密货币有任何不当行为，而是因为美国证券交易委员会并不完全相信以太坊不是一种“证券”。这一名称对投资者有影响，因为证券与加密货币受到不同的监管要求。

While Ethereum may not be an inherently poor investment, it appears less attractive compared to Bitcoin at the moment. It lacks spot ETFs and the full support of Wall Street, and its regulatory status remains uncertain. In a choice between Bitcoin and Ethereum, many investors may opt for the more established and SEC-approved cryptocurrency.

虽然以太坊本身可能并不是一项糟糕的投资，但目前与比特币相比，它的吸引力似乎较低。它缺乏现货ETF和华尔街的全力支持，其监管状况仍存在不确定性。在比特币和以太坊之间进行选择时，许多投资者可能会选择更成熟且获得 SEC 批准的加密货币。

A Silver Lining amidst the Gloom

阴霾中的一线希望

Despite the bearish outlook for Bitcoin mining stocks and Ethereum, there may be a silver lining. Some Bitcoin miners are exploring alternative uses for their computing power, such as artificial intelligence (AI). This could lead to new revenue opportunities in a rapidly growing industry.

尽管比特币矿业股和以太坊的前景看跌，但可能还有一线希望。一些比特币矿工正在探索其计算能力的其他用途，例如人工智能（AI）。这可能会为快速增长的行业带来新的收入机会。

For Ethereum, the Bitcoin halving may serve as a catalyst for increased regulatory clarity on cryptocurrencies. This, in turn, could attract more Wall Street products tailored specifically for crypto investors. During the previous Bitcoin halving in 2016, Ethereum experienced strong performance, suggesting that a turnaround may be possible.

对于以太坊来说，比特币减半可能会成为提高加密货币监管透明度的催化剂。反过来，这可能会吸引更多专门为加密货币投资者量身定制的华尔街产品。在2016年比特币减半期间，以太坊表现强劲，表明可能出现逆转。

Nevertheless, given the current climate, it is advisable to exercise caution when investing in Bitcoin mining stocks or Ethereum. In comparison to a direct investment in Bitcoin, these alternatives offer greater risk and less potential upside. Bitcoin remains the most straightforward and secure way to capitalize on the Bitcoin halving.

尽管如此，考虑到当前的环境，建议在投资比特币矿业股票或以太坊时保持谨慎。与直接投资比特币相比，这些替代品风险更大，潜在的上涨空间更小。比特币仍然是利用比特币减半的最直接、最安全的方式。