比特幣減半將提振加密貨幣領導者，但會阻礙關聯投資

雖然比特幣減半事件預計將推高比特幣價格，但並非所有加密資產都會遵循這一趨勢。由於挖礦獎勵減少和監管調查，比特幣礦業股和以太坊可能分別面臨挫折。此外，與比特幣相比，以太坊缺乏現貨 ETF 以及美國證券交易委員會潛在的懷疑，使其成為一項不太有吸引力的投資。

Bitcoin Halving: A Boon for the Leading Cryptocurrency, a Bane for Related Investments

比特幣減半：領先加密貨幣的福音，相關投資的禍根

The impending Bitcoin halving, a pivotal event scheduled for May 2024, has suscitated widespread anticipation among investors. While conventional wisdom suggests a surge in Bitcoin's price, this transformative event may not bode well for all crypto-related ventures. In fact, some experts predict a potential decline in the fortunes of certain Bitcoin mining stocks and Ethereum.

即將到來的比特幣減半是定於 2024 年 5 月舉行的關鍵事件，激發了投資者的廣泛預期。雖然傳統觀點認為比特幣價格飆升，但這項變革性事件對於所有與加密貨幣相關的企業來說可能並不是好兆頭。事實上，一些專家預測某些比特幣礦業股票和以太坊的財富可能會下跌。

Bitcoin Mining Stocks: A Shaky Future

比特幣礦業股票：不穩定的未來

It may seem paradoxical that Bitcoin mining stocks, which enjoyed a meteoric rise in 2023, could face a market downturn following the halving. After all, these stocks were hailed as some of the most promising Bitcoin proxy investments. However, the halving mechanism introduces a significant change: the reward given to Bitcoin miners for adding new blocks to the blockchain will be halved. This translates to a reduction from 6.25 Bitcoins per block to 3.125 Bitcoins.

比特幣礦業股在 2023 年飛速上漲，但在減半後卻可能面臨市場低迷，這似乎有些矛盾。畢竟，這些股票被譽為最有前途的比特幣代理投資之一。然而，減半機制帶來了一個重大變化：比特幣礦工為區塊鏈添加新區塊的獎勵將減半。這意味著每個區塊的比特幣數量從 6.25 比特幣減少到 3.125 比特幣。

The impact on revenue and earnings for Bitcoin miners such as Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital Holdings is substantial. Given the current market price of Bitcoin at approximately $66,000, these miners will effectively lose over $200,000 in revenue for each new block mined. Unless Bitcoin's price doubles, these companies may struggle to break even.

這對 Riot Platforms 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 等比特幣礦商的收入和利潤產生了巨大影響。鑑於目前比特幣的市場價格約為 66,000 美元，這些礦工每開採一個新區塊，實際上將損失超過 20 萬美元的收入。除非比特幣價格翻倍，否則這些公司可能難以達到收支平衡。

Consequently, a major shakeout is anticipated in the Bitcoin mining industry in 2024. Only the most efficient miners with the most powerful rigs will likely remain profitable. This bleak outlook casts a bearish shadow on the likes of Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital Holdings, their profitability directly and immediately impacted by the halving.

因此，預計 2024 年比特幣挖礦產業將發生重大洗牌。這種黯淡的前景為 Riot Platforms 和 Marathon Digital Holdings 等公司蒙上了悲觀的陰影，它們的獲利能力立即受到減半的直接影響。

Ethereum: Collateral Damage

以太坊：附帶損害

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, may also suffer as a consequence of the Bitcoin halving. This unfortunate coincidence stems from the timing of the halving, which comes at a critical juncture for Ethereum.

以市值計算的第二大加密貨幣以太坊也可能因比特幣減半而受到影響。這不幸的巧合源自於減半的時機，而減半正值以太坊的關鍵時刻。

In mid-April 2024, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed a decision on approving spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) until later in the year. The initial hope was for approval in May, but that now appears unlikely. The earliest possible decision on an Ethereum ETF is June, although even this may be optimistic given the SEC's cautious approach in approving spot Bitcoin ETFs.

2024 年 4 月中旬，美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 將批准現貨以太坊交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的決定推遲到今年稍後。最初的希望是在五月獲得批准，但現在看來可能性不大。關於以太坊 ETF 的最早可能決定是在 6 月份，儘管考慮到美國證券交易委員會在批准現貨比特幣 ETF 方面的謹慎態度，即使這也可能是樂觀的。

Furthermore, there are growing concerns that the SEC may be investigating Ethereum, not due to any wrongdoing by the cryptocurrency but rather because the SEC is not fully convinced that Ethereum is not a "security." This designation has implications for investors, as securities are subject to different regulatory requirements than cryptocurrencies.

此外，人們越來越擔心美國證券交易委員會可能正在調查以太坊，這並不是因為加密貨幣有任何不當行為，而是因為美國證券交易委員會並不完全相信以太坊不是一種「證券」。這個名稱對投資者有影響，因為證券與加密貨幣受到不同的監管要求。

While Ethereum may not be an inherently poor investment, it appears less attractive compared to Bitcoin at the moment. It lacks spot ETFs and the full support of Wall Street, and its regulatory status remains uncertain. In a choice between Bitcoin and Ethereum, many investors may opt for the more established and SEC-approved cryptocurrency.

雖然以太坊本身可能並不是一項糟糕的投資，但目前與比特幣相比，它的吸引力似乎較低。它缺乏現貨ETF和華爾街的全力支持，其監管狀況仍存在不確定性。在比特幣和以太坊之間進行選擇時，許多投資者可能會選擇更成熟且獲得 SEC 批准的加密貨幣。

A Silver Lining amidst the Gloom

陰霾中的一線希望

Despite the bearish outlook for Bitcoin mining stocks and Ethereum, there may be a silver lining. Some Bitcoin miners are exploring alternative uses for their computing power, such as artificial intelligence (AI). This could lead to new revenue opportunities in a rapidly growing industry.

儘管比特幣礦業股和以太坊的前景看跌，但可能還有一線希望。一些比特幣礦工正在探索其運算能力的其他用途，例如人工智慧（AI）。這可能會為快速成長的行業帶來新的收入機會。

For Ethereum, the Bitcoin halving may serve as a catalyst for increased regulatory clarity on cryptocurrencies. This, in turn, could attract more Wall Street products tailored specifically for crypto investors. During the previous Bitcoin halving in 2016, Ethereum experienced strong performance, suggesting that a turnaround may be possible.

對以太坊來說，比特幣減半可能會成為提高加密貨幣監管透明度的催化劑。反過來，這可能會吸引更多專為加密貨幣投資者量身定制的華爾街產品。在2016年比特幣減半期間，以太坊表現強勁，顯示可能出現逆轉。

Nevertheless, given the current climate, it is advisable to exercise caution when investing in Bitcoin mining stocks or Ethereum. In comparison to a direct investment in Bitcoin, these alternatives offer greater risk and less potential upside. Bitcoin remains the most straightforward and secure way to capitalize on the Bitcoin halving.

儘管如此，考慮到當前的環境，建議在投資比特幣礦業股票或以太坊時保持謹慎。與直接投資比特幣相比，這些替代品風險更大，潛在的上漲空間更小。比特幣仍然是利用比特幣減半的最直接、最安全的方式。