比特币与黄金：在通货膨胀和地缘政治不稳定时期，哪种资产会表现更好？

这是一个经常引人注目的话题，因为尽管最近下降了，但比特币溜冰鞋以其历史新高，黄金以美元计价的历史最高水平。

The timeworn question of gold versus Bitcoin has resurfaced as both assets skate along with new all-time highs. Which asset will perform better in a time of inflation and geopolitical instability? Which asset will do well if there's a recession? Will gold outshine Bitcoin in the long term - or the reverse?

随着两种资产滑冰以及新的历史最高高点，黄金与比特币的时刻问题都浮出水面。在通货膨胀和地缘政治不稳定时期，哪种资产会表现更好？如果有衰退，哪种资产会做得很好？从长远来看，金黄色会超出比特币吗？

Both gold and Bitcoin are hard money

黄金和比特币都是艰苦的钱

Both of them seem poised to do well on the inflation front since they're meant to address the continual inflation of the money supply and what some term "money printing." As money supply increases, the amount of fiat currency in circulation also increases - ultimately, this is the long-term decision-maker for inflation, which is a general increase in prices - or, flipped another way, the gradual loss of purchasing power for fiat money. Gold is a scarce commodity that tends to increase in value with geopolitical trouble. Historically, it was the backer of fiat currencies until the United States turned away from the gold standard system in 1971 in favor of the current system of unrestrained fiat currencies.

他们俩似乎都准备在通货膨胀方面做得很好，因为它们是要解决货币供应的持续通货膨胀以及一些“货币印刷”的术语。随着货币供应的增加，流通中的法定货币数量也会增加 - 最终，这是通货膨胀的长期决策者，这是价格的总体上涨 - 或者，换句话说是菲亚特货币购买力的逐渐损失。黄金是一种稀缺的商品，往往会随着地缘政治麻烦而增加价值。从历史上看，这一直是法定货币的支持者，直到1971年美国从黄金标准制度转身而不是当前不受约束的法定货币制度。

However, in the case of a recession, the short-term volatility associated with Bitcoin will likely mean downward price pressure - as it's seen as a risk-on asset that trades more suddenly in a 24/7 market that is open while other markets remain closed - and gold may gain value due to a combination of governments using it to hedge from US dollar dominance and the effect of tariffs.

但是，在经济衰退的情况下，与比特币相关的短期波动率可能意味着下降价格压力 - 因为它被视为一种风险 - 货币资产，在24/7市场中突然进行交易，而在其他市场保持封闭的情况下，该市场在24/7的市场中可能会造成的，而黄金可能会因使用Usrar Dimance和HEDGE的政府组合而获得价值，而金牌可能会获得价值。

Paper gold and paper Bitcoin

纸质和纸比特币

Gold has industrial uses "backdropping" its price. However, Bitcoin has two things going for it that are unique advantages: its ability to be used as a medium of exchange, though not fully realized now - the experience is already superior to lugging gold bars or coins around, and its integration with the Internet and AI through the L402 payment protocol and Lightning Network. As the Internet becomes more equipped with capabilities, Bitcoin, as the world's preeminent digital currency, will stand to benefit.

黄金具有工业用途“背景”的价格。但是，比特币有两件事是独特的优势：它可以用作交换媒介的能力，尽管现在还没有完全实现 - 该体验已经优于拖延金条或硬币，以及通过L402支付协议和Lightning网络与Internet和AI的集成。随着互联网变得越来越具备功能，比特币作为世界上杰出的数字货币将受益。

Bitcoin is also designed to be energy invariant - meaning that it scales with the amount of computing power and energy. In theory, gold doesn't display this same property. For example, if humanity harnesses enough energy to seriously asteroid mine, the amount of gold available would quickly dampen its price while Bitcoin's mining difficulty adjustment already bakes in a way to adjust the cost of issuing a Bitcoin with the amount of energy directed to the network.

比特币还设计为能量不变的 - 这意味着它会随着计算能力和能量的量表缩放。从理论上讲，黄金不显示同一属性。例如，如果人类利用足够的能量来认真对待小行星矿山，那么可用的黄金量会迅速降低其价格，而比特币的采矿难度调整已经以一种方式烘烤，以调整发行比特币的成本，并使用针对网络的大量能量。

Yet none of the benefits of the underlying asset matter as a hedge if you "own" gold or Bitcoin through paper ETFs beyond the price - which is the majority of the market in gold. This paper ownership is especially prevalent in gold, with some speculating that the ratio of paper gold to actual gold is about 20x, speaking to the difficulty of holding and transacting in gold. While that ratio is less certain in Bitcoin, there does seem to be more demand for self-custody, and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs comes at a time when there was much more long-term ownership of Bitcoin versus amounts on exchanges for trading.

但是，如果您通过纸质ETF“拥有”黄金或比特币，那么基础资产的好处都不是对冲，这是黄金市场中的大部分市场。本文的所有权尤其普遍存在，其中一些猜测是纸黄与实际黄金的比率约为20倍，这是在黄金中持有和交易的困难。尽管比特币的比率较不确定，但对自我观念的需求似乎更高，而比特币ETF的引入是在比特币的长期所有权与交易交易的数量更长期所有权的时候出现的。

Short-term vs. long-term

短期与长期

If you look at the short-term, Bitcoin is correlated with risk equities. So, when there are immediate inflation pronouncements, such as with the surprise readout of slightly elevated inflation early this year, you might see Bitcoin dip and gold gain. This difference in how Bitcoin and gold have performed has led to several gold bugs declaring victory, perhaps prematurely, each time this happens. Yet, when you look at the long-term of Bitcoin, it has maintained its record as the best risk-reward adjusted return for a financial asset.

如果您看短期，比特币与风险股票相关。因此，当有立即通货膨胀的声明（例如，今年年初通货膨胀略有升高时，您可能会看到比特币蘸酱和金牌增益。比特币和黄金表现方式的这种差异导致了几个黄金虫子宣布胜利，也许每次发生这种情况时都会过早。但是，当您查看比特币的长期长期时，它已将其记录作为金融资产的最佳风险奖励调整回报。

The long-term limit on Bitcoin scarcity - a cap of 21 million Bitcoin, is already playing out. Other cryptocurrencies that could form a new "digital money supply" are vanishing before Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance, a measure of how much Bitcoin's market value is relative to the value of all cryptocurrencies, has been steadily increasing, recently breaching the 60% mark, which Bitcoin has not touched since 2021.

比特币稀缺的长期限制 - 比特币的上限已经在发挥作用。在比特币之前，其他可能形成新的“数字货币供应”的加密货币正在消失。比特币优势是对比特币的市场价值相对于所有加密货币的价值的衡量标准，一直在稳步增加，最近违反了60％的商标，这是比特币自2021年以来就没有触及的。

Bitcoin combines both the ability to act as a store of value while gaining utility that powers more demand and price increases - this is a trend that doesn't look likely to stop anytime soon and is already vastly outpacing the potential for gold - which no matter what form it's in, struggles to serve as a medium of exchange because of how hard it is to transport.

比特币既将充当价值存储的能力结合在一起，同时获得了更多的需求和价格上涨的效用 - 这是一种趋势，看起来不太可能很快停止，并且已经大大超过了黄金的潜力 - 无论它是什么形式，由于它的运输方式很难交换，因此努力充当交换的媒介。

Tariffs and a recession have allowed gold to shine - with central banks like China's central bank shifting to buying gold to hedge itself from US dollar dominance and tariffs pumping up gold prices within the United States.

关税和经济衰退使黄金闪耀 - 中央银行等中央银行转移到购买黄金以对冲美元的金额，从美元的支配地位，关税在美国境内倾斜了黄金价格。

Geopolitical instability - and endgames?

地缘政治不稳定 - 最终游戏？

Right now, gold and Bitcoin are not immune to geopolitical instability. Real gold is being shipped around and clustering towards the United States, with impending tariffs on metals being discussed. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining equipment, largely produced by Chinese manufacturing companies, is seeing delays in shipment to American Bitcoin mining companies, which now provide a large amount of

目前，黄金和比特币不能免疫地缘政治不稳定。真正的黄金正在四处运输并聚集在美国，即将讨论金属的关税。同时，中国制造公司主要生产的比特币采矿设备正在送往美国比特币矿业公司的延误，该公司现在提供大量