比特幣與黃金：在通貨膨脹和地緣政治不穩定時期，哪種資產會表現更好？

這是一個經常引人注目的話題，因為儘管最近下降了，但比特幣溜冰鞋以其歷史新高，黃金以美元計價的歷史最高水平。

The timeworn question of gold versus Bitcoin has resurfaced as both assets skate along with new all-time highs. Which asset will perform better in a time of inflation and geopolitical instability? Which asset will do well if there's a recession? Will gold outshine Bitcoin in the long term - or the reverse?

隨著兩種資產滑冰以及新的歷史最高高點，黃金與比特幣的時刻問題都浮出水面。在通貨膨脹和地緣政治不穩定時期，哪種資產會表現更好？如果有衰退，哪種資產會做得很好？從長遠來看，金黃色會超出比特幣嗎？

Both gold and Bitcoin are hard money

黃金和比特幣都是艱苦的錢

Both of them seem poised to do well on the inflation front since they're meant to address the continual inflation of the money supply and what some term "money printing." As money supply increases, the amount of fiat currency in circulation also increases - ultimately, this is the long-term decision-maker for inflation, which is a general increase in prices - or, flipped another way, the gradual loss of purchasing power for fiat money. Gold is a scarce commodity that tends to increase in value with geopolitical trouble. Historically, it was the backer of fiat currencies until the United States turned away from the gold standard system in 1971 in favor of the current system of unrestrained fiat currencies.

他們倆似乎都準備在通貨膨脹方面做得很好，因為它們是要解決貨幣供應的持續通貨膨脹以及一些“貨幣印刷”的術語。隨著貨幣供應的增加，流通中的法定貨幣數量也會增加 - 最終，這是通貨膨脹的長期決策者，這是價格的總體上漲 - 或者，換句話說是菲亞特貨幣購買力的逐漸損失。黃金是一種稀缺的商品，往往會隨著地緣政治麻煩而增加價值。從歷史上看，這一直是法定貨幣的支持者，直到1971年美國從黃金標準制度轉身而不是當前不受約束的法定貨幣制度。

However, in the case of a recession, the short-term volatility associated with Bitcoin will likely mean downward price pressure - as it's seen as a risk-on asset that trades more suddenly in a 24/7 market that is open while other markets remain closed - and gold may gain value due to a combination of governments using it to hedge from US dollar dominance and the effect of tariffs.

但是，在經濟衰退的情況下，與比特幣相關的短期波動率可能意味著下降價格壓力 - 因為它被視為一種風險 - 貨幣資產，在24/7市場中突然進行交易，而在其他市場保持封閉的情況下，該市場在24/7的市場中可能會造成的，而黃金可能會因使用Usrar Dimance和HEDGE的政府組合而獲得價值，而金牌可能會獲得價值。

Paper gold and paper Bitcoin

紙質和紙比特幣

Gold has industrial uses "backdropping" its price. However, Bitcoin has two things going for it that are unique advantages: its ability to be used as a medium of exchange, though not fully realized now - the experience is already superior to lugging gold bars or coins around, and its integration with the Internet and AI through the L402 payment protocol and Lightning Network. As the Internet becomes more equipped with capabilities, Bitcoin, as the world's preeminent digital currency, will stand to benefit.

黃金具有工業用途“背景”的價格。但是，比特幣有兩件事是獨特的優勢：它可以用作交換媒介的能力，儘管現在還沒有完全實現 - 該體驗已經優於拖延金條或硬幣，以及通過L402支付協議和Lightning網絡與Internet和AI的集成。隨著互聯網變得越來越具備功能，比特幣作為世界上傑出的數字貨幣將受益。

Bitcoin is also designed to be energy invariant - meaning that it scales with the amount of computing power and energy. In theory, gold doesn't display this same property. For example, if humanity harnesses enough energy to seriously asteroid mine, the amount of gold available would quickly dampen its price while Bitcoin's mining difficulty adjustment already bakes in a way to adjust the cost of issuing a Bitcoin with the amount of energy directed to the network.

比特幣還設計為能量不變的 - 這意味著它會隨著計算能力和能量的量表縮放。從理論上講，黃金不顯示同一屬性。例如，如果人類利用足夠的能量來認真對待小行星礦山，那麼可用的黃金量會迅速降低其價格，而比特幣的採礦難度調整已經以一種方式烘烤，以調整髮行比特幣的成本，並使用針對網絡的大量能量。

Yet none of the benefits of the underlying asset matter as a hedge if you "own" gold or Bitcoin through paper ETFs beyond the price - which is the majority of the market in gold. This paper ownership is especially prevalent in gold, with some speculating that the ratio of paper gold to actual gold is about 20x, speaking to the difficulty of holding and transacting in gold. While that ratio is less certain in Bitcoin, there does seem to be more demand for self-custody, and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs comes at a time when there was much more long-term ownership of Bitcoin versus amounts on exchanges for trading.

但是，如果您通過紙質ETF“擁有”黃金或比特幣，那麼基礎資產的好處都不是對沖，這是黃金市場中的大部分市場。本文的所有權尤其普遍存在，其中一些猜測是紙黃與實際黃金的比率約為20倍，這是在黃金中持有和交易的困難。儘管比特幣的比率較不確定，但對自我觀念的需求似乎更高，而比特幣ETF的引入是在比特幣的長期所有權與交易交易的數量更長期所有權的時候出現的。

Short-term vs. long-term

短期與長期

If you look at the short-term, Bitcoin is correlated with risk equities. So, when there are immediate inflation pronouncements, such as with the surprise readout of slightly elevated inflation early this year, you might see Bitcoin dip and gold gain. This difference in how Bitcoin and gold have performed has led to several gold bugs declaring victory, perhaps prematurely, each time this happens. Yet, when you look at the long-term of Bitcoin, it has maintained its record as the best risk-reward adjusted return for a financial asset.

如果您看短期，比特幣與風險股票相關。因此，當有立即通貨膨脹的聲明（例如，今年年初通貨膨脹略有升高時，您可能會看到比特幣蘸醬和金牌增益。比特幣和黃金表現方式的這種差異導致了幾個黃金蟲子宣布勝利，也許每次發生這種情況時都會過早。但是，當您查看比特幣的長期長期時，它已將其記錄作為金融資產的最佳風險獎勵調整回報。

The long-term limit on Bitcoin scarcity - a cap of 21 million Bitcoin, is already playing out. Other cryptocurrencies that could form a new "digital money supply" are vanishing before Bitcoin. Bitcoin dominance, a measure of how much Bitcoin's market value is relative to the value of all cryptocurrencies, has been steadily increasing, recently breaching the 60% mark, which Bitcoin has not touched since 2021.

比特幣稀缺的長期限制 - 比特幣的上限已經在發揮作用。在比特幣之前，其他可能形成新的“數字貨幣供應”的加密貨幣正在消失。比特幣優勢是對比特幣的市場價值相對於所有加密貨幣的價值的衡量標準，一直在穩步增加，最近違反了60％的商標，這是比特幣自2021年以來就沒有觸及的。

Bitcoin combines both the ability to act as a store of value while gaining utility that powers more demand and price increases - this is a trend that doesn't look likely to stop anytime soon and is already vastly outpacing the potential for gold - which no matter what form it's in, struggles to serve as a medium of exchange because of how hard it is to transport.

比特幣既將充當價值存儲的能力結合在一起，同時獲得了更多的需求和價格上漲的效用 - 這是一種趨勢，看起來不太可能很快停止，並且已經大大超過了黃金的潛力 - 無論它是什麼形式，由於它的運輸方式很難交換，因此努力充當交換的媒介。

Tariffs and a recession have allowed gold to shine - with central banks like China's central bank shifting to buying gold to hedge itself from US dollar dominance and tariffs pumping up gold prices within the United States.

關稅和經濟衰退使黃金閃耀 - 中央銀行等中央銀行轉移到購買黃金以對沖美元的金額，從美元的支配地位，關稅在美國境內傾斜了黃金價格。

Geopolitical instability - and endgames?

地緣政治不穩定 - 最終遊戲？

Right now, gold and Bitcoin are not immune to geopolitical instability. Real gold is being shipped around and clustering towards the United States, with impending tariffs on metals being discussed. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining equipment, largely produced by Chinese manufacturing companies, is seeing delays in shipment to American Bitcoin mining companies, which now provide a large amount of

目前，黃金和比特幣不能免疫地緣政治不穩定。真正的黃金正在四處運輸並聚集在美國，即將討論金屬的關稅。同時，中國製造公司主要生產的比特幣採礦設備正在送往美國比特幣礦業公司的延誤，該公司現在提供大量