比特币期货：拥抱波动的双刃剑

比特币期货市场最近经历了波动性激增，未平仓合约达到 360 亿美元的历史新高。尽管推出了现货ETF，但市场波动性仍增至80%，超过了标准普尔500指数和石油期货等传统波动性资产。高期货持仓量通常与波动性增加有关，一些分析师将近期的波动归因于过度杠杆或操纵。然而，月度合约的溢价分析表明，杠杆需求主要集中在买方，表明看涨情绪。相反，下跌趋势的持续可能会引发强制平仓，从而加剧价格下跌。

Bitcoin Futures Market: A Double-Edged Sword in the Quest for Volatility

比特币期货市场：寻求波动性的双刃剑

Bitcoin (BTC) investors, perpetually captivated by the allure of price volatility, often find their euphoria tempered by the subsequent sharp corrections that accompany price rallies. These abrupt reversals trigger forced liquidations in futures contracts, exacerbating the downward price movement.

比特币（BTC）投资者永远被价格波动的诱惑所吸引，他们常常发现，随着价格上涨，随后的大幅调整会削弱他们的兴奋感。这些突然的逆转引发了期货合约的强制平仓，加剧了价格的下行走势。

Futures contracts play a pivotal role in the Bitcoin market, enabling traders to employ leverage, amplifying their potential profits but also their risks. As the futures market flourishes, its influence on Bitcoin's price becomes increasingly pronounced.

期货合约在比特币市场中发挥着关键作用，使交易者能够利用杠杆，放大他们的潜在利润，同时也放大他们的风险。随着期货市场的蓬勃发展，其对比特币价格的影响越来越明显。

Open Interest Reaches Record Heights

持仓量创历史新高

The aggregate open interest in Bitcoin futures surged to an unprecedented $36 billion on March 21, a significant leap from the $30 billion recorded just two weeks prior. Notably, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), the market leader, secured an open interest of $11.9 billion, surpassing the combined inflows of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) since their inception.

3 月 21 日，比特币期货的未平仓合约总额飙升至前所未有的 360 亿美元，较两周前记录的 300 亿美元大幅跃升。值得注意的是，市场领导者芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的未平仓合约达到 119 亿美元，超过了美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）自成立以来的流入总和。

Volatility Spikes Despite ETF Launch

尽管 ETF 推出，波动性仍在飙升

Despite the much-anticipated launch of spot ETFs in the U.S., some analysts envisioned a dampening effect on volatility, given the substantial daily trading volume of these instruments, averaging over $3 billion. However, recent data presents a contrasting picture, revealing a surge in Bitcoin's volatility over the past four weeks.

尽管现货 ETF 在美国的推出备受期待，但考虑到这些工具的日交易量巨大（平均超过 30 亿美元），一些分析师预计波动性将会受到抑制。然而，最近的数据却呈现出截然不同的景象，显示过去四个星期比特币的波动性激增。

Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has soared above 80%, its highest level in more than 15 months. This stark contrast is evident when compared to the S&P 500 index volatility, currently at 13%, and WTI oil futures volatility, standing at 23%. Even stocks traditionally considered volatile in the traditional market, such as Nvidia (NVDA) and Unity Software (U), exhibit volatilities of 72% and 59%, respectively.

比特币的 30 天波动率飙升至 80% 以上，为 15 个多月以来的最高水平。与目前 13% 的标准普尔 500 指数波动率和 23% 的 WTI 石油期货波动率相比，这种鲜明对比非常明显。即使是传统市场上传统上被认为波动较大的股票，例如 Nvidia (NVDA) 和 Unity Software (U)，也分别表现出 72% 和 59% 的波动率。

Forced Liquidations Drive Downward Pressure

强制平仓带来下行压力

The inherent volatility of Bitcoin is exemplified by the 10% correction on March 19, driving the price to a low of $60,795, followed by a swift 12% recovery on March 20. This abrupt price swing triggered $375 million in forced liquidations of BTC futures contracts over two days. While such fluctuations may not directly impact long-term holders, they undeniably shape the trajectory of bull runs and, more importantly, the broader market's perception of Bitcoin's risk profile.

比特币固有的波动性体现在 3 月 19 日的 10% 回调，将价格推至 60,795 美元的低点，随后在 3 月 20 日迅速回升 12%。这种突然的价格波动引发了 3.75 亿美元的 BTC 期货合约强制平仓。两天多了。虽然这种波动可能不会直接影响长期持有者，但它们无可否认地影响了牛市的轨迹，更重要的是，影响了更广泛的市场对比特币风险状况的看法。

The Perils of Leverage

杠杆的危险

The Bitcoin futures market, like any derivatives instrument, is a double-edged sword: it facilitates both bullish and bearish bets with leverage. While entities aggressively shorting BTC futures may appear to exert downward pressure on the spot Bitcoin price, the contracts must eventually be settled, either through buying back the contract or forced liquidation.

与任何衍生工具一样，比特币期货市场是一把双刃剑：它通过杠杆促进看涨和看跌押注。虽然积极做空 BTC 期货的实体可能会对现货比特币价格施加下行压力，但合约最终必须通过回购合约或强制清算来结算。

Consequently, if Bitcoin's price is suppressed by investors employing leveraged shorts, one can anticipate an eventual reversal of this movement, leading to short-term buying pressure. This explains, in part, the correlation between elevated futures open interest and increased volatility.

因此，如果比特币的价格受到投资者利用杠杆空头的压制，人们可以预期这一走势最终会逆转，从而导致短期买盘压力。这在一定程度上解释了期货未平仓合约增加与波动性增加之间的相关性。

Allegations of Manipulation

操纵指控

Some analysts attribute the heightened volatility to excessive leverage, while others simply label it as "manipulation." For instance, Amit Kukreja, user amitX on Twitter, alleges that market makers have been pursuing leveraged longs and shorts. He claims that stocks directly related to the sector, such as the miner CleanSpark (CLSK), gained 7% on the day Bitcoin's price crashed to $68,000. While speculations can be made, it is impossible to ascertain the motivations behind each market participant.

一些分析师将波动性加剧归因于杠杆过高，而另一些分析师则简单地将其称为“操纵”。例如，Twitter 上的 amitX 用户 Amit Kukreja 声称做市商一直在追求杠杆多头和空头。他声称，与该行业直接相关的股票，例如矿商 CleanSpark (CLSK)，在比特币价格暴跌至 68,000 美元当天上涨了 7%。虽然可以进行猜测，但不可能确定每个市场参与者背后的动机。

Evaluating Futures Premium

评估期货溢价

To gauge whether Bitcoin futures contracts have been used to exert negative pressure on BTC's price, one should scrutinize the premium of monthly contracts. These contracts are preferred by professional traders due to the absence of a funding rate. To compensate for the extended settlement period, sellers typically demand a 5% to 10% premium relative to spot markets.

要判断比特币期货合约是否被用来对比特币价格施加负面压力，应该仔细审查月度合约的溢价。由于没有资金费率，这些合约受到专业交易者的青睐。为了弥补结算期延长的影响，卖方通常要求相对于现货市场有 5% 至 10% 的溢价。

The BTC futures premium has remained above 16% for the past three weeks, a characteristic of bullish markets. Notably, the indicator has not significantly declined even after Bitcoin's price fell by 17.6% between March 14 and 20.

过去三周，BTC 期货溢价一直保持在 16% 以上，这是牛市的特征。值得注意的是，即使比特币价格在 3 月 14 日至 20 日期间下跌 17.6%，该指标也没有显着下降。

This suggests that the demand for leverage on Bitcoin's futures is predominantly concentrated on the buy side. Conversely, if the Bitcoin price continues to downtrend, those leveraged buyers might face forced liquidation, leading to drastic consequences given the $36 billion open interest.

这表明比特币期货的杠杆需求主要集中在买方。相反，如果比特币价格继续下跌，这些杠杆买家可能会面临强制清算，鉴于 360 亿美元的未平仓合约，将导致严重后果。

Disclaimer

免责声明

This article does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading involve risk, and readers should conduct their own thorough research before making any decisions.

本文不构成投资建议或推荐。所有投资和交易都涉及风险，读者在做出任何决定之前应进行彻底的研究。