比特币在伊朗和以色列冲突中动摇，其避险地位受到质疑

尽管比特币最近对地缘政治紧张局势做出了负面反应，但专家认为，由于其流动性、有限的供应和对通胀冲击的抵抗力，它仍然是一个安全港。虽然比特币的短期波动可能使其在不确定时期显得脆弱，但其作为价值储存手段的长期性质表明，它会在事后恢复并表现良好。

Bitcoin's Reaction to Iran-Israel Conflict Raises Questions About Its Safe-Haven Status

比特币对伊朗-以色列冲突的反应引发了对其避险地位的质疑

Amidst the escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin's price has experienced a temporary decline, prompting questions about its reliability as a safe-haven asset. Andrew Ross Sorkin, a renowned CNBC journalist, has ignited the debate by expressing skepticism about Bitcoin's ability to withstand market volatility, having previously criticized its store-of-value potential.

在伊朗和以色列之间不断升级的地缘政治紧张局势中，比特币的价格经历了暂时的下跌，引发了人们对其作为避险资产的可靠性的质疑。 CNBC 著名记者安德鲁·罗斯·索尔金 (Andrew Ross Sorkin) 对比特币抵御市场波动的能力表示怀疑，引发了这场争论，此前他曾批评其价值储存潜力。

This debate hinges on the assumption of a full-scale war between the two nations, a scenario that remains unlikely at this juncture. However, the situation has highlighted Bitcoin's sensitivity to geopolitical events, which has raised concerns about its suitability as a safe haven.

这场辩论取决于两国之间爆发全面战争的假设，但目前这种情况仍然不太可能发生。然而，这种情况凸显了比特币对地缘政治事件的敏感性，这引发了人们对其是否适合作为避险资产的担忧。

Jack Mallers, the CEO of Strike app, posits that Bitcoin's liquidity and ease of accessibility make it a prime target for expressing market anxiety during times of uncertainty. He draws parallels to the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, where Bitcoin's price plummeted to $3,000 only to rebound and surge to $70,000 a year later.

Strike 应用程序的首席执行官杰克·马勒斯 (Jack Mallers) 认为，比特币的流动性和易于获取性使其成为在不确定时期表达市场焦虑的主要目标。他将比特币的价格与 2020 年 3 月的 COVID-19 大流行进行了类比，当时比特币的价格暴跌至 3,000 美元，一年后反弹并飙升至 70,000 美元。

"Bitcoin is one of the few free and liquid markets that exist," Mallers asserts. "The reaction is immediate. It behaved similarly in March 2020 (Covid), when it fell to $3,000 only to eventually surge to $70,000 a year later. I expect this scenario to play out again."

马勒斯断言：“比特币是现存的为数不多的自由且流动性强的市场之一。” “反应是立竿见影的。它在 2020 年 3 月 (Covid) 的表现类似，当时价格跌至 3,000 美元，一年后最终飙升至 70,000 美元。我预计这种情况会再次上演。”

In a similar vein, Bob Burnett, the CEO of Barefoot Mining, characterizes Bitcoin as a dual-natured asset, serving both as a risk asset and a risk-free asset. He emphasizes Bitcoin's role as an early indicator of global events, which may explain its vulnerability during periods of uncertainty. However, he maintains that Bitcoin's long-term store-of-value proposition ultimately leads to its recovery.

同样，Barefoot Mining 首席执行官鲍勃·伯内特 (Bob Burnett) 将比特币描述为一种双重性质的资产，既是风险资产，又是无风险资产。他强调了比特币作为全球事件早期指标的作用，这可能解释了它在不确定时期的脆弱性。然而，他坚持认为，比特币的长期价值储存主张最终会导致其复苏。

Burnett questions Bitcoin's ability to act as a safe haven in the event of war or hyperinflationary events, such as the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He underscores Bitcoin's finite quantity and ease of ownership, suggesting that it remains an essential asset in the face of inflationary shocks and the consequences of conflict.

伯内特质疑比特币在发生战争或恶性通货膨胀事件（例如霍尔木兹海峡可能关闭）时充当避风港的能力。他强调了比特币的数量有限和易于拥有，表明面对通胀冲击和冲突后果，它仍然是一种重要资产。

"Look at the credit cards of Ukrainians that no longer work abroad," Burnett says. "Only those who had bitcoins were able to flee rather than being forcibly enlisted in the army."

“看看那些不再在国外工作的乌克兰人的信用卡，”伯内特说。 “只有那些拥有比特币的人才能逃跑，而不是被强行入伍。”

Despite the initial decline, Bitcoin has since recovered its losses, trading above $66,000 at the time of writing this article. Its long-term trajectory remains bullish, with analysts predicting a potential surge towards $100,000.

尽管最初出现下跌，但比特币此后已收复失地，在撰写本文时交易价格已超过 66,000 美元。其长期轨迹仍然看涨，分析师预测其价格可能飙升至 100,000 美元。

The debate surrounding Bitcoin's status as a safe haven is likely to continue as geopolitical and economic uncertainties persist. However, its liquidity, finite supply, and ease of ownership remain compelling attributes that may mitigate its short-term volatility and reinforce its long-term value proposition.

随着地缘政治和经济不确定性的持续存在，围绕比特币作为避风港地位的争论可能会继续下去。然而，其流动性、有限供应和易于所有权仍然具有引人注目的属性，可能会减轻其短期波动性并强化其长期价值主张。