比特币衍生品交易员为夏季市场下跌做好准备

比特币和以太坊衍生品交易商正在为夏季市场活动可能出现的平静做准备。自 4 月中旬以来，比特币期权的隐含波动率 (IV) 显着下降，表明交易者预计价格波动较小。同样，以太 IV 也有所下降，可能是由于交易者预计在美国监管不确定性的情况下波动性会减少。但是，交易者应该意识到，由于流动性减少，夏季有时可能会出现波动性增加。

Bitcoin Derivatives Traders Anticipate Summer Market Lull

比特币衍生品交易员预计夏季市场平静

Amidst the cryptocurrency market's recent surge, Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives traders are strategically positioning themselves for an anticipated lull in market activity during the summer months.

在加密货币市场最近的飙升中，比特币（BTC）衍生品交易商正在战略性地做好准备，以应对夏季市场活动的预期平静。

According to Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, "Summers are typically characterized by low volatility periods, prompting traders to adjust their positions based on their respective biases."

Bitfinex 衍生品主管 Jag Kooner 表示，“夏季的特点是低波动期，促使交易者根据各自的偏好调整头寸。”

Data analytics from The Block's Data Dashboard corroborate this observation, indicating a significant decline in Bitcoin's implied volatility since mid-April. Notably, the implied volatility of at-the-money (ATM) options has reduced from over 77% to under 60% across one week, one month, and multi-month expirations.

The Block 数据仪表板的数据分析证实了这一观察结果，表明自 4 月中旬以来，比特币的隐含波动率大幅下降。值得注意的是，平价 (ATM) 期权的隐含波动率在一周、一个月和多月到期期间已从 77% 以上降至 60% 以下。

Similarly, the implied volatility of Ethereum (ETH) ATM options has experienced a substantial decrease since mid-April. This trend aligns with the expectations of traders who anticipate diminished price fluctuations pending regulatory clarity for ETH in the United States.

同样，自 4 月中旬以来，以太坊 (ETH) ATM 期权的隐含波动率也大幅下降。这一趋势符合交易者的预期，他们预计在美国 ETH 监管明确之前，价格波动将会减少。

Bartosz Lipiński, CEO of Cube.Exchange, believes that the subsiding ETH IV signals traders' anticipation of a calmer price environment while awaiting definitive regulatory guidance. "In the face of uncertainty, traders often adopt a risk-averse approach by transitioning to cash and abstaining from active trading. Such dynamics may be evident in the current ETH market," Lipiński explained.

Cube.Exchange 首席执行官 Bartosz Lipiński 认为，ETH IV 的下跌表明交易者在等待明确的监管指导的同时预计价格环境将趋于平静。 “面对不确定性，交易者经常采取规避风险的方法，转向现金并放弃活跃交易。这种动态在当前的 ETH 市场上可能很明显，”Lipinski 解释道。

Lipski emphasized that while summer typically brings reduced trading volumes, it can paradoxically lead to heightened volatility due to prevailing liquidity gaps in the market. "The summer season often witnesses subdued activity, akin to equity markets, but historical events like the 'DeFi summer' of 2017 and the recent major bull run underscore the potential impact of lower liquidity on relatively bullish crypto markets," Lipiński noted.

利普斯基强调，虽然夏季通常会导致交易量减少，但由于市场普遍存在的流动性缺口，它可能会导致波动加剧。 Lipiński 指出：“夏季通常会出现类似于股票市场的低迷活动，但 2017 年的‘DeFi 夏季’和最近的主要牛市等历史事件强调了流动性较低对相对看涨的加密货币市场的潜在影响。”