XRP 在 2025 年及以后是否能达到炒作的效果？

Ripple 的原生代币 XRP（加密货币：XRP）自今年年初以来已飙升约 240%，这得益于唐纳德·特朗普的推动

Surging 240% year to date, Ripple’s (CRYPTO: XRP) native token, XRP, has made many of its early investors into millionaires, given its market cap of $121 billion. Part of this optimism is driven by the expectation that the new administration will relax regulations on digital currencies, leading to broader adoption. But will XRP live up to expectations in 2025 and beyond? Let's explore this further.

Ripple（加密货币：XRP）的原生代币 XRP 今年迄今为止飙升了 240%，鉴于其 1210 亿美元的市值，它已使许多早期投资者成为百万富翁。这种乐观情绪的部分原因是预期新政府将放松对数字货币的监管，从而导致更广泛的采用。但 XRP 在 2025 年及以后能否达到预期？让我们进一步探讨这一点。

An exceptionally practical digital currency

极其实用的数字货币

While many blockchains claim to be transforming financial systems, few stand a chance of actually achieving this goal, especially in the realm of global payments. But Ripple’s network is designed to simplify international transactions, and its cryptocurrency, XRP, acts as a mediator for currency exchange. For example, it allows an American to convert USD to XRP and then XRP to Japanese yen swiftly and without costly intermediaries.

尽管许多区块链声称正在改变金融体系，但很少有机会真正实现这一目标，特别是在全球支付领域。但 Ripple 的网络旨在简化国际交易，其加密货币 XRP 充当货币兑换的中介。例如，它允许美国人快速将美元兑换成 XRP，然后将 XRP 兑换成日元，而无需昂贵的中介机构。

According to McKinsey, the global payments market represents a $2.4 trillion revenue opportunity, which is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%, reaching $3.1 trillion by 2028. Ripple’s advantages in speed and cost could help it disrupt this market. Unlike traditional services like SWIFT that take days to settle transactions, Ripple completes transactions in seconds and at a fraction of the cost, charging just 0.00001 XRP per transaction, compared to traditional wire transfer fees of $35 to $50.

麦肯锡预计，全球支付市场蕴藏着 2.4 万亿美元的收入机会，预计将以 5% 的复合年增长率 (CAGR) 增长，到 2028 年将达到 3.1 万亿美元。Ripple 在速度和成本方面的优势可能有助于颠覆这一现状。市场。与 SWIFT 等需要数天才能完成交易的传统服务不同，Ripple 可在几秒钟内完成交易，且成本仅为其一小部分，每笔交易仅收取 0.00001 XRP，而传统电汇费用为 35 至 50 美元。

Facing regulatory challenges

面临监管挑战

Given the sensitive nature of international payments, it’s no surprise that Ripple and XRP have not escaped regulatory scrutiny. Dominated by the U.S. dollar, which accounts for 58% of global payments outside the Eurozone, the introduction of alternative bridge currencies like XRP could diminish the dollar’s dominance. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies could potentially enable countries to circumvent U.S. sanctions.

鉴于国际支付的敏感性，Ripple 和 XRP 未能逃脱监管审查也就不足为奇了。美元占主导地位，占欧元区以外全球支付的 58%，引入 XRP 等替代过渡货币可能会削弱美元的主导地位。此外，加密货币可能使各国能够规避美国的制裁。

However, Ripple's primary regulatory challenges have been largely domestic. In August, RippleLabs was fined $125 million by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for selling XRP as unregistered securities. Despite this setback, the ruling also marked a partial win for Ripple, distinguishing between institutional direct sales, where XRP is considered a security, and retail sales on secondary markets, where it isn’t.

然而，Ripple 面临的主要监管挑战主要来自国内。 8 月，RippleLabs 因将 XRP 作为未注册证券出售而被美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 罚款 1.25 亿美元。尽管遭遇了这一挫折，该裁决也标志着 Ripple 取得了部分胜利，区分了机构直接销售（XRP 被视为证券）和二级市场零售销售（XRP 不被视为证券）。

This ruling alleviated some uncertainty around XRP, and many believe the Trump administration could provide further relief. According to the New York Times, Trump’s nominee for SEC chair, Paul Atkins, is expected to pursue a more lenient stance on cryptocurrency regulation compared to his predecessor, Gary Gensler, who was known for his strict regulatory approach.

这一裁决缓解了 XRP 的一些不确定性，许多人认为特朗普政府可以提供进一步的缓解。据《纽约时报》报道，特朗普的 SEC 主席提名人保罗·阿特金斯 (Paul Atkins) 预计将在加密货币监管方面采取更为宽松的立场，而其前任加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler) 则以严格的监管方式而闻名。

Consider holding off

考虑推迟

The future appears promising for Ripple and XRP, with significant potential for practical application and reduced regulatory uncertainty potentially encouraging more institutional investment. However, it's important to note that cryptocurrencies lack traditional financial metrics like earnings or revenue, which makes them difficult to value using conventional methods such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-sales ratios.

Ripple 和 XRP 的未来似乎充满希望，具有巨大的实际应用潜力，并且监管不确定性的减少可能会鼓励更多的机构投资。然而，值得注意的是，加密货币缺乏收益或收入等传统财务指标，这使得它们很难使用市盈率 (P/E) 或市销率等传统方法进行估值。

After increasing more than threefold in value in 2024, XRP may have already factored in many of the positive changes expected in 2025. Therefore, long-term investors might consider waiting until the current hype subsides before taking a position in the cryptocurrency.

在 2024 年价值增加三倍以上之后，XRP 可能已经考虑了 2025 年预期的许多积极变化。因此，长期投资者可能会考虑等到当前的炒作消退后再买入加密货币。