XRP 在 2025 年及以後是否能達到炒作的效果？

Ripple 的原生代幣 XRP（加密貨幣：XRP）自今年年初以來已飆升約 240%，這得益於唐納德·川普的推動

Surging 240% year to date, Ripple’s (CRYPTO: XRP) native token, XRP, has made many of its early investors into millionaires, given its market cap of $121 billion. Part of this optimism is driven by the expectation that the new administration will relax regulations on digital currencies, leading to broader adoption. But will XRP live up to expectations in 2025 and beyond? Let's explore this further.

Ripple（加密貨幣：XRP）的原生代幣 XRP 今年迄今飆升了 240%，鑑於其 1,210 億美元的市值，它已使許多早期投資者成為百萬富翁。這種樂觀情緒的部分原因是預期新政府將放鬆對數位貨幣的監管，從而導致更廣泛的採用。但 XRP 在 2025 年及以後能否達到預期？讓我們進一步探討這一點。

An exceptionally practical digital currency

極為實用的數位貨幣

While many blockchains claim to be transforming financial systems, few stand a chance of actually achieving this goal, especially in the realm of global payments. But Ripple’s network is designed to simplify international transactions, and its cryptocurrency, XRP, acts as a mediator for currency exchange. For example, it allows an American to convert USD to XRP and then XRP to Japanese yen swiftly and without costly intermediaries.

儘管許多區塊鏈聲稱正在改變金融體系，但很少有機會真正實現這一目標，特別是在全球支付領域。但 Ripple 的網路旨在簡化國際交易，其加密貨幣 XRP 充當貨幣兌換的中介。例如，它允許美國人快速將美元兌換成 XRP，然後將 XRP 兌換成日圓，而無需昂貴的中介機構。

According to McKinsey, the global payments market represents a $2.4 trillion revenue opportunity, which is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%, reaching $3.1 trillion by 2028. Ripple’s advantages in speed and cost could help it disrupt this market. Unlike traditional services like SWIFT that take days to settle transactions, Ripple completes transactions in seconds and at a fraction of the cost, charging just 0.00001 XRP per transaction, compared to traditional wire transfer fees of $35 to $50.

麥肯錫預計，全球支付市場蘊藏著2.4 兆美元的營收機會，預計將以5% 的複合年增長率(CAGR) 成長，到2028 年將達到3.1 兆美元。有助於顛覆這一現狀。與SWIFT 等需要數天時間才能完成交易的傳統服務不同，Ripple 可在幾秒鐘內完成交易，且成本僅為其一小部分，每筆交易僅收取0.00001 XRP，而傳統電匯費用為35 至50美元。

Facing regulatory challenges

面臨監管挑戰

Given the sensitive nature of international payments, it’s no surprise that Ripple and XRP have not escaped regulatory scrutiny. Dominated by the U.S. dollar, which accounts for 58% of global payments outside the Eurozone, the introduction of alternative bridge currencies like XRP could diminish the dollar’s dominance. Furthermore, cryptocurrencies could potentially enable countries to circumvent U.S. sanctions.

鑑於國際支付的敏感性，Ripple 和 XRP 未能逃脫監管審查也就不足為奇了。美元占主導地位，佔歐元區以外全球支付的 58%，引入 XRP 等替代過渡貨幣可能會削弱美元的主導地位。此外，加密貨幣可能使各國能夠規避美國的製裁。

However, Ripple's primary regulatory challenges have been largely domestic. In August, RippleLabs was fined $125 million by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for selling XRP as unregistered securities. Despite this setback, the ruling also marked a partial win for Ripple, distinguishing between institutional direct sales, where XRP is considered a security, and retail sales on secondary markets, where it isn’t.

然而，Ripple 面臨的主要監管挑戰主要來自國內。 8 月，RippleLabs 因將 XRP 作為未註冊證券出售而被美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 罰款 1.25 億美元。儘管遭遇了這一挫折，該裁決也標誌著 Ripple 取得了部分勝利，區分了機構直接銷售（XRP 被視為證券）和二級市場零售銷售（XRP 不被視為證券）。

This ruling alleviated some uncertainty around XRP, and many believe the Trump administration could provide further relief. According to the New York Times, Trump’s nominee for SEC chair, Paul Atkins, is expected to pursue a more lenient stance on cryptocurrency regulation compared to his predecessor, Gary Gensler, who was known for his strict regulatory approach.

這項裁決緩解了 XRP 的一些不確定性，許多人認為川普政府可以提供進一步的緩解。根據《紐約時報》報道，川普的SEC 主席提名人保羅·阿特金斯(Paul Atkins) 預計將在加密貨幣監管方面採取更為寬鬆的立場，而其前任加里·詹斯勒(Gary Gensler ) 則以嚴格的監管方式而聞名。

Consider holding off

考慮延遲

The future appears promising for Ripple and XRP, with significant potential for practical application and reduced regulatory uncertainty potentially encouraging more institutional investment. However, it's important to note that cryptocurrencies lack traditional financial metrics like earnings or revenue, which makes them difficult to value using conventional methods such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-sales ratios.

Ripple 和 XRP 的未來似乎充滿希望，具有巨大的實際應用潛力，並且監管不確定性的減少可能會鼓勵更多的機構投資。然而，值得注意的是，加密貨幣缺乏收益或收入等傳統財務指標，這使得它們很難使用市盈率 (P/E) 或市銷率等傳統方法進行估值。

After increasing more than threefold in value in 2024, XRP may have already factored in many of the positive changes expected in 2025. Therefore, long-term investors might consider waiting until the current hype subsides before taking a position in the cryptocurrency.

在 2024 年價值增加三倍以上之後，XRP 可能已經考慮了 2025 年預期的許多積極變化。