比特幣衍生性商品交易員為夏季市場下跌做好準備

比特幣和以太坊衍生品交易商正在為夏季市場活動可能出現的平靜做準備。自 4 月中旬以來，比特幣選擇權的隱含波動率 (IV) 顯著下降，顯示交易者預計價格波動較小。同樣，以太 IV 也有所下降，可能是由於交易者預計在美國監管不確定性的情況下波動性會減少。

Bitcoin Derivatives Traders Anticipate Summer Market Lull

比特幣衍生性商品交易員預計夏季市場平靜

Amidst the cryptocurrency market's recent surge, Bitcoin (BTC) derivatives traders are strategically positioning themselves for an anticipated lull in market activity during the summer months.

在加密貨幣市場最近的飆升中，比特幣（BTC）衍生性商品交易商正在策略性地做好準備，以應對夏季市場活動的預期平靜。

According to Jag Kooner, Head of Derivatives at Bitfinex, "Summers are typically characterized by low volatility periods, prompting traders to adjust their positions based on their respective biases."

Bitfinex 衍生品主管 Jag Kooner 表示，“夏季的特點是低波動期，促使交易者根據各自的偏好調整頭寸。”

Data analytics from The Block's Data Dashboard corroborate this observation, indicating a significant decline in Bitcoin's implied volatility since mid-April. Notably, the implied volatility of at-the-money (ATM) options has reduced from over 77% to under 60% across one week, one month, and multi-month expirations.

The Block 數據儀表板的數據分析證實了這項觀察結果，顯示自 4 月中旬以來，比特幣的隱含波動率大幅下降。值得注意的是，平價 (ATM) 選擇權的隱含波動率在一週、一個月和個多月到期期間已從 77% 以上降至 60% 以下。

Similarly, the implied volatility of Ethereum (ETH) ATM options has experienced a substantial decrease since mid-April. This trend aligns with the expectations of traders who anticipate diminished price fluctuations pending regulatory clarity for ETH in the United States.

同樣，自 4 月中旬以來，以太坊 (ETH) ATM 選擇權的隱含波動率也大幅下降。這一趨勢符合交易者的預期，他們預計在美國 ETH 監管明確之前，價格波動將會減少。

Bartosz Lipiński, CEO of Cube.Exchange, believes that the subsiding ETH IV signals traders' anticipation of a calmer price environment while awaiting definitive regulatory guidance. "In the face of uncertainty, traders often adopt a risk-averse approach by transitioning to cash and abstaining from active trading. Such dynamics may be evident in the current ETH market," Lipiński explained.

Cube.Exchange 執行長 Bartosz Lipiński 認為，ETH IV 的下跌表明交易者在等待明確的監管指導的同時預計價格環境將趨於平靜。 「面對不確定性，交易者經常採取規避風險的方法，轉向現金並放棄活躍交易。這種動態在當前的 ETH 市場上可能很明顯，」Lipinski 解釋道。

Lipski emphasized that while summer typically brings reduced trading volumes, it can paradoxically lead to heightened volatility due to prevailing liquidity gaps in the market. "The summer season often witnesses subdued activity, akin to equity markets, but historical events like the 'DeFi summer' of 2017 and the recent major bull run underscore the potential impact of lower liquidity on relatively bullish crypto markets," Lipiński noted.

利普斯基強調，雖然夏季通常會導致交易量減少，但由於市場普遍存在的流動性缺口，它可能會導致波動加劇。 Lipiński 指出：“夏季通常會出現類似於股票市場的低迷活動，但 2017 年的‘DeFi 夏季’和最近的主要牛市等歷史事件強調了流動性較低對相對看漲的加密貨幣市場的潛在影響。”