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欧洲中央银行(ECB)的经济学家认为,比特币价值的持续上涨将极大地影响财富分配,但对大多数人来说并不是好事。
Economists at the European Central Bank (ECB) have expressed concerns about the distributional consequences of Bitcoin's rising value, highlighting that it could exacerbate wealth inequalities and benefit early adopters at the expense of latecomers and non-holders.
欧洲中央银行(ECB)的经济学家对比特币价值上涨的分配后果表示担忧,强调它可能会加剧财富不平等,并以牺牲后来者和非持有者的利益为代价,使早期采用者受益。
In a paper titled "The distributional consequences of Bitcoin," the economists argue that while the cryptocurrency's price may continue to increase, the gains will not be distributed evenly. Instead, they could worsen economic disparities, creating a divide between those who capitalized on Bitcoin early and everyone else.
在一篇题为“比特币的分配后果”的论文中,经济学家认为,虽然加密货币的价格可能会继续上涨,但收益不会均匀分配。相反,它们可能会加剧经济差距,在早期利用比特币的人和其他人之间造成鸿沟。
Bitcoin's initial vision as a revolutionary decentralized currency for peer-to-peer payments has largely shifted toward its treatment as an investment, which works in favor of those who entered the market at an early stage.
比特币作为一种用于点对点支付的革命性去中心化货币的最初愿景已在很大程度上转向将其视为一种投资,这有利于那些早期进入市场的人。
With no inherent economic value attached to it, Bitcoin's surge is primarily driven by collective belief and a continuous influx of fresh investments. Despite the potential for rising prices, the ECB economists emphasize that the benefits will not be shared equally.
由于没有固有的经济价值,比特币的飙升主要是由集体信念和新投资的持续涌入推动的。尽管物价有可能上涨,但欧洲央行经济学家强调,收益不会平等分享。
The economists also highlight Bitcoin's changing role in the global economy. While the idea of Bitcoin transforming payment systems was once prevalent, it has not fully materialized, except in the realm of illicit transactions.
经济学家还强调了比特币在全球经济中不断变化的角色。虽然比特币改变支付系统的想法曾经很流行,但除了非法交易领域外,它还没有完全实现。
Instead, Bitcoin's value has become predicated on the belief that its price will continue to increase. The economists explain that this price rise is fueled by new investments, leading BTC to transition from a payment system to a speculative investment.
相反,比特币的价值已经基于对其价格将继续上涨的信念。经济学家解释说,这种价格上涨是由新投资推动的,导致比特币从支付系统转变为投机投资。
The original vision of using Bitcoin for everyday transactions, as conceived by Satoshi Nakamoto, has been largely abandoned in favor of a pursuit of quick profits by retailers, institutions, and even governments.
中本聪设想的使用比特币进行日常交易的最初愿景已基本被放弃,转而支持零售商、机构甚至政府追求快速利润。
This situation is problematic, according to the paper, because Bitcoin does not contribute to the economy's productive potential, and economists are skeptical of its long-term sustainability.
该论文称,这种情况是有问题的,因为比特币不会对经济的生产潜力做出贡献,而且经济学家对其长期可持续性持怀疑态度。
However, societies can maintain belief-based asset bubbles for extended periods, and this speculative approach to Bitcoin could have significant social consequences.
然而,社会可以长期维持基于信仰的资产泡沫,而这种对比特币的投机方式可能会产生重大的社会后果。
If Bitcoin were to reach a valuation of $1 million per coin, as some have predicted, its total market cap would approach $20 trillion. Former presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. has even suggested a future Bitcoin market cap of hundreds of trillions of dollars, implying a BTC price of at least $10 million.
如果像一些人预测的那样,比特币的估值达到每枚 100 万美元,那么其总市值将接近 20 万亿美元。前总统候选人小罗伯特·肯尼迪甚至提出未来比特币的市值将达到数百万亿美元,这意味着比特币的价格至少为 1000 万美元。
To put this into perspective, the total global equity valuation at the end of 2023 was $111 trillion, encompassing the market value of every publicly traded company worldwide.
从这个角度来看,截至 2023 年底,全球股票估值总额为 111 万亿美元,涵盖全球每家上市公司的市值。
As of August, gold's total market value was roughly $12.2 trillion. So, when people discuss Bitcoin reaching astronomical prices, they are essentially predicting a market value that surpasses both gold and global equity combined.
截至 8 月份,黄金总市值约为 12.2 万亿美元。因此,当人们讨论比特币达到天文数字的价格时,他们实质上是在预测其市场价值将超过黄金和全球股票的总和。
The economists also delve into the consumption effects that favor early Bitcoin owners. With Bitcoin wealth concentrated in the hands of early adopters, consumption patterns shift to their benefit.
经济学家还深入研究了有利于早期比特币所有者的消费效应。随着比特币财富集中在早期采用者手中,消费模式转向对他们有利的方向。
The ECB economists explain that Bitcoin holders benefit from rising prices, which increase their wealth. Subsequently, they consume more, but since Bitcoin does not contribute to the economy's production, this increased consumption comes at the expense of others.
欧洲央行经济学家解释说,比特币持有者受益于价格上涨,从而增加了他们的财富。随后,他们消费更多,但由于比特币对经济生产没有贡献,这种消费的增加是以牺牲其他人为代价的。
Specifically, the economists believe that this extra consumption could lead to reduced consumption for the rest of society.
具体来说,经济学家认为,这种额外的消费可能会导致社会其他人的消费减少。
The wealth effect of Bitcoin on early holders stems from their ability to sell Bitcoin to latecomers, who fund their purchases by either reducing their own consumption or liquidating other assets.
比特币对早期持有者的财富效应源于他们将比特币出售给后来者的能力,后者通过减少自己的消费或清算其他资产来为购买提供资金。
It's a cycle where early adopters benefit from selling to new investors, while the new investors are left holding a less advantageous position.
在这个周期中,早期采用者通过向新投资者出售产品而受益,而新投资者则处于不利地位。
Essentially, the wealth redistribution occurs when latecomers sacrifice to participate in the Bitcoin market, selling off their own assets and cutting back on their spending to buy into the dream.
从本质上讲,当后来者牺牲自己参与比特币市场、出售自己的资产并削减支出来实现梦想时,财富的重新分配就发生了。
The paper makes clear that while Bitcoin supporters tout the potential for massive gains, these gains are likely to come at the expense of non-holders and latecomers.
该论文明确指出,虽然比特币支持者吹捧巨大收益的潜力,但这些收益可能是以非持有者和后来者为代价的。
As prices continue to rise, the crowding out effect becomes more apparent—investors buying Bitcoin are siphoning wealth from other areas of the economy.
随着价格持续上涨,挤出效应变得更加明显——购买比特币的投资者正在从其他经济领域吸走财富。
The economists assume a scenario where latecomers buy Bitcoin by reducing consumption and selling real assets, while early birds accumulate those real assets, increasing their wealth over and over.
经济学家假设这样一种情况:后来者通过减少消费和出售实物资产来购买比特币,而先行者则积累这些实物资产,不断增加他们的财富。
They go on to explain that Bitcoin's rise doesn't boost the overall economy, but instead takes from one group and gives to another. Even if the price stabilizes, the early Bitcoin adopters have already cashed in on the lion's share of the wealth.
他们接着解释说,比特币的崛起并没有提振整体经济,而是从一个群体中获取并给予另一个群体。即使价格稳定下来,比特币的早期采用者也已经兑现了最大份额的财富。
Interestingly, the economists point out that Bitcoin's wealth effect is much higher than that of traditional equity investments.
有趣的是,经济学家指出,比特币的财富效应远高于传统股权投资。
Some research shows that crypto holders, compared to equity holders, have a higher marginal propensity to consume (MPC). This means they spend more out of their crypto wealth than they would from equity gains.
一些研究表明,与股权持有人相比,加密货币持有者具有更高的边际消费倾向(MPC)。这意味着他们从加密货币财富中支出的金额比从股票收益中支出的金额还要多。
At its core, Bitcoin creates a zero-sum game in wealth distribution. The ECB economists describe a scenario where Bitcoin's wealth effects don't add to the economy's productive capacity, which means that gains made by Bitcoin holders are directly offset by losses suffered by non-holders.
从本质上讲,比特币在财富分配方面创造了一种零和游戏。欧洲央行经济学家描述了一种情况,即比特币的财富效应不会增加经济的生产能力,这意味着比特币持有者获得的收益会直接被非持有者遭受的损失所抵消。
When Bitcoin's wealth reaches a
当比特币的财富达到
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