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歐洲中央銀行(ECB)的經濟學家認為,比特幣價值的持續上漲將極大地影響財富分配,但對大多數人來說並不是一件好事。
Economists at the European Central Bank (ECB) have expressed concerns about the distributional consequences of Bitcoin's rising value, highlighting that it could exacerbate wealth inequalities and benefit early adopters at the expense of latecomers and non-holders.
歐洲中央銀行(ECB)的經濟學家對比特幣價值上漲的分配後果表示擔憂,強調它可能會加劇財富不平等,並以犧牲後來者和非持有者的利益為代價,使早期採用者受益。
In a paper titled "The distributional consequences of Bitcoin," the economists argue that while the cryptocurrency's price may continue to increase, the gains will not be distributed evenly. Instead, they could worsen economic disparities, creating a divide between those who capitalized on Bitcoin early and everyone else.
在一篇題為「比特幣的分配後果」的論文中,經濟學家認為,雖然加密貨幣的價格可能會繼續上漲,但收益不會均勻分配。相反,它們可能會加劇經濟差距,在早期利用比特幣的人和其他人之間造成鴻溝。
Bitcoin's initial vision as a revolutionary decentralized currency for peer-to-peer payments has largely shifted toward its treatment as an investment, which works in favor of those who entered the market at an early stage.
比特幣作為一種用於點對點支付的革命性去中心化貨幣的最初願景已在很大程度上轉向將其視為一種投資,這有利於那些早期進入市場的人。
With no inherent economic value attached to it, Bitcoin's surge is primarily driven by collective belief and a continuous influx of fresh investments. Despite the potential for rising prices, the ECB economists emphasize that the benefits will not be shared equally.
由於沒有固有的經濟價值,比特幣的飆升主要是由集體信念和新投資的持續湧入所推動的。儘管物價有可能上漲,但歐洲央行經濟學家強調,收益不會平等分享。
The economists also highlight Bitcoin's changing role in the global economy. While the idea of Bitcoin transforming payment systems was once prevalent, it has not fully materialized, except in the realm of illicit transactions.
經濟學家也強調了比特幣在全球經濟中不斷變化的角色。雖然比特幣改變支付系統的想法曾經很流行,但除了非法交易領域外,它還沒有完全實現。
Instead, Bitcoin's value has become predicated on the belief that its price will continue to increase. The economists explain that this price rise is fueled by new investments, leading BTC to transition from a payment system to a speculative investment.
相反,比特幣的價值已經基於對其價格將繼續上漲的信念。經濟學家解釋說,這種價格上漲是由新投資推動的,導致比特幣從支付系統轉變為投機投資。
The original vision of using Bitcoin for everyday transactions, as conceived by Satoshi Nakamoto, has been largely abandoned in favor of a pursuit of quick profits by retailers, institutions, and even governments.
中本聰所設想的使用比特幣進行日常交易的最初願景已基本被放棄,轉而支持零售商、機構甚至政府追求快速利潤。
This situation is problematic, according to the paper, because Bitcoin does not contribute to the economy's productive potential, and economists are skeptical of its long-term sustainability.
論文稱,這種情況是有問題的,因為比特幣不會對經濟的生產潛力做出貢獻,經濟學家對其長期可持續性持懷疑態度。
However, societies can maintain belief-based asset bubbles for extended periods, and this speculative approach to Bitcoin could have significant social consequences.
然而,社會可以長期維持基於信仰的資產泡沫,而這種對比特幣的投機方式可能會產生重大的社會後果。
If Bitcoin were to reach a valuation of $1 million per coin, as some have predicted, its total market cap would approach $20 trillion. Former presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. has even suggested a future Bitcoin market cap of hundreds of trillions of dollars, implying a BTC price of at least $10 million.
如果像一些人預測的那樣,比特幣的估值達到每枚 100 萬美元,那麼其總市值將接近 20 兆美元。前總統候選人小羅伯特甘迺迪甚至提出未來比特幣的市值將達到數百萬億美元,這意味著比特幣的價格至少為 1000 萬美元。
To put this into perspective, the total global equity valuation at the end of 2023 was $111 trillion, encompassing the market value of every publicly traded company worldwide.
從這個角度來看,截至 2023 年底,全球股票估值總額為 111 兆美元,涵蓋全球每家上市公司的市值。
As of August, gold's total market value was roughly $12.2 trillion. So, when people discuss Bitcoin reaching astronomical prices, they are essentially predicting a market value that surpasses both gold and global equity combined.
截至 8 月份,黃金總市值約為 12.2 兆美元。因此,當人們討論比特幣達到天文數字的價格時,他們實質上是在預測其市場價值將超過黃金和全球股票的總和。
The economists also delve into the consumption effects that favor early Bitcoin owners. With Bitcoin wealth concentrated in the hands of early adopters, consumption patterns shift to their benefit.
經濟學家也深入研究了有利於早期比特幣所有者的消費效應。隨著比特幣財富集中在早期採用者手中,消費模式轉向對他們有利的方向。
The ECB economists explain that Bitcoin holders benefit from rising prices, which increase their wealth. Subsequently, they consume more, but since Bitcoin does not contribute to the economy's production, this increased consumption comes at the expense of others.
歐洲央行經濟學家解釋說,比特幣持有者受益於價格上漲,從而增加了他們的財富。隨後,他們消費更多,但由於比特幣對經濟生產沒有貢獻,這種消費的增加是以犧牲其他人為代價的。
Specifically, the economists believe that this extra consumption could lead to reduced consumption for the rest of society.
具體來說,經濟學家認為,這種額外的消費可能會導致社會其他人的消費減少。
The wealth effect of Bitcoin on early holders stems from their ability to sell Bitcoin to latecomers, who fund their purchases by either reducing their own consumption or liquidating other assets.
比特幣對早期持有者的財富效應源於他們將比特幣出售給後來者的能力,後者透過減少自己的消費或清算其他資產來為購買提供資金。
It's a cycle where early adopters benefit from selling to new investors, while the new investors are left holding a less advantageous position.
在這個週期中,早期採用者透過向新投資者出售產品而受益,而新投資者則處於不利地位。
Essentially, the wealth redistribution occurs when latecomers sacrifice to participate in the Bitcoin market, selling off their own assets and cutting back on their spending to buy into the dream.
從本質上講,當後來者犧牲自己參與比特幣市場、出售自己的資產並削減支出來實現夢想時,財富的重新分配就發生了。
The paper makes clear that while Bitcoin supporters tout the potential for massive gains, these gains are likely to come at the expense of non-holders and latecomers.
論文明確指出,雖然比特幣支持者吹捧巨大收益的潛力,但這些收益可能是以非持有者和後來者為代價的。
As prices continue to rise, the crowding out effect becomes more apparent—investors buying Bitcoin are siphoning wealth from other areas of the economy.
隨著價格持續上漲,擠出效應變得更加明顯——購買比特幣的投資者正在從其他經濟領域中吸收財富。
The economists assume a scenario where latecomers buy Bitcoin by reducing consumption and selling real assets, while early birds accumulate those real assets, increasing their wealth over and over.
經濟學家假設這樣一種情況:後來者透過減少消費和出售實體資產來購買比特幣,而先行者則累積這些實體資產,不斷增加他們的財富。
They go on to explain that Bitcoin's rise doesn't boost the overall economy, but instead takes from one group and gives to another. Even if the price stabilizes, the early Bitcoin adopters have already cashed in on the lion's share of the wealth.
他們接著解釋說,比特幣的崛起並沒有提振整體經濟,而是從一個群體中獲取並給予另一個群體。即使價格穩定下來,比特幣的早期採用者也兌現了最大份額的財富。
Interestingly, the economists point out that Bitcoin's wealth effect is much higher than that of traditional equity investments.
有趣的是,經濟學家指出,比特幣的財富效應遠高於傳統股權投資。
Some research shows that crypto holders, compared to equity holders, have a higher marginal propensity to consume (MPC). This means they spend more out of their crypto wealth than they would from equity gains.
一些研究表明,與股權持有人相比,加密貨幣持有者俱有更高的邊際消費傾向(MPC)。這意味著他們從加密貨幣財富中支出的金額比從股票收益中支出的金額還要多。
At its core, Bitcoin creates a zero-sum game in wealth distribution. The ECB economists describe a scenario where Bitcoin's wealth effects don't add to the economy's productive capacity, which means that gains made by Bitcoin holders are directly offset by losses suffered by non-holders.
從本質上講,比特幣在財富分配方面創造了一種零和遊戲。歐洲央行經濟學家描述了一種情況,即比特幣的財富效應不會增加經濟的生產能力,這意味著比特幣持有者獲得的收益將直接被非持有者遭受的損失所抵消。
When Bitcoin's wealth reaches a
當比特幣的財富達到
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