比特币 (BTN) 在 6 月份出现了大幅下跌，触及 72,000 美元附近的高点，低点在 59,000 美元左右。

比特币有一个有趣的波动性偏差。波动性往往会增加而导致上行走势，而波动性则会减少而导致下行走势

The crypto tends to increase in volatility into upside moves and decrease in volatility into downside moves.

加密货币往往会在上行走势中增加波动性，在下行走势中波动性降低。

Bitcoin (BTN) has seen significant downside over the month of June, hitting highs near $72,000 with lows trading in the $59,000 handle. Bitcoin tends to be the leader of the pack—as seen in comparison to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), which have seen greater downside moves over the last month.

比特币 (BTN) 在 6 月份出现了大幅下跌，触及 72,000 美元附近的高点，低点在 59,000 美元左右。与以太坊 (ETH) 和 Solana (SOL) 相比，比特币往往是其中的佼佼者，后两者在上个月出现了更大的下行走势。

Bitcoin has an interesting volatility skew. It tends to increase in volatility into upside moves and decrease in volatility into downside moves. This is contrary to most asset classes. The S&P 500, for example, sees downside put skew. As prices go down, volatility in SPY tends to increase, meaning future price movements are expected to be greater. That’s why the expected move in Bitcoin seems relatively small — volatility is near historical lows. For context, 2021 saw highs in implied volatility north of 140%, contributing to this upside potential "asymmetric" returns associated with Bitcoin.

比特币有一个有趣的波动性偏差。它往往会增加波动性导致上行走势，而减少波动性则会导致下行走势。这与大多数资产类别相反。例如，标准普尔 500 指数出现下行看跌偏斜。随着价格下跌，SPY 的波动性往往会增加，这意味着未来价格变动预计会更大。这就是为什么比特币的预期波动似乎相对较小——波动性接近历史低点。就背景而言，2021 年隐含波动率高达 140% 以上，这促成了与比特币相关的潜在“不对称”回报。

What's driving the Bitcoin weakness?

是什么推动了比特币的疲软？

Risk on assets like stocks or crypto tend to be liquidity-driven and tend to move in a correlated fashion. Over the last month, we've seen expectations for future rate cuts decrease, and the strength in the dollar increase as a result. Without binary catalysts like earnings or business cycles, Bitcoin has remained much more negatively correlated to rate changes and dollar strength than the market as a whole.

股票或加密货币等资产的风险往往是流动性驱动的，并且往往以相关的方式变化。上个月，我们看到对未来降息的预期下降，美元因此走强。如果没有收益或商业周期等二元催化剂，比特币与利率变化和美元走强的负相关性比整个市场要大得多。

Is it time to buy Bitcoin?

现在是购买比特币的时候了吗？

While it’s certainly hard to buy bottoms and sell tops, it should come as no surprise that incorporating volatile assets in a portfolio can accelerate potential returns. Even a small allocation might be appropriate, depending on your risk tolerance. Below is a breakdown of the returns of different portfolio allocations that shows even a 1% exposure to Bitcoin has outperformed a 60/40 portfolio.

虽然底部买入和顶部卖出确实很困难，但将波动性资产纳入投资组合可以加速潜在回报也就不足为奇了。即使是少量分配也可能是合适的，具体取决于您的风险承受能力。下面是不同投资组合配置的回报细目，显示即使 1% 的比特币敞口也优于 60/40 的投资组合。

There are many ways to trade Bitcoin outside of the spot allocation, such as IBIT (IShares Bitcoin Trust), It’s among other highly correlated equities like Coinbase (COIN) and the miners, such as Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA). The miners, in particular, while not 100% correlated to the price of Bitcoin, tend to have higher volatility than Coinbase or spot Bitcoin.

在现货分配之外交易比特币的方式有很多，例如 IBIT (IShares Bitcoin Trust)，以及其他高度相关的股票，例如 Coinbase (COIN) 和矿工，例如 Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)。尤其是矿工，虽然与比特币价格并非 100% 相关，但其波动性往往高于 Coinbase 或现货比特币。

Check out our in depth review of what’s moving the crypto market here and join us every Monday at 11 a.m. CDT with Ryan Grace of tastycrypto.

在这里查看我们对加密货币市场推动因素的深入评论，并于每周一上午 11 点（美国中部夏令时间）与 tastycrypto 的 Ryan Grace 一起加入我们。

Get all of the latest crypto news from the tastycrypto blog.

从 tastycrypto 博客获取所有最新的加密新闻。

What do you think? Is Bitcoin a buy here? Let me know on twitter @TraderNickyBAT.

你怎么认为？比特币在这里可以买吗？请通过 Twitter @TraderNickyBAT 告诉我。

Nick Battista, tastylive director of market intelligence, has a decade of trading experience. He appears Monday-Friday on Options Trading Concepts Live. On Wednesdays, he co-hosts Johnny Trades. @tradernickybat

Nick Battista，tastylive 市场情报总监，拥有十年的交易经验。他周一至周五出现在期权交易概念直播中。每周三，他与他人共同主持 Johnny Trades。 @tradernickybat

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

如需每日直播节目、市场新闻和评论，请访问 tastylive 或 YouTube 频道 tastylive（针对期权交易者）以及股票、期货、外汇和宏观交易的 tatyliveTrending。

Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.

与更好的经纪商进行交易，立即开设一个美味的交易账户。 tastylive, Inc. 和 tastytrade, Inc. 是独立但关联的公司。