比特幣 (BTN) 在 6 月出現了大幅下跌，觸及 72,000 美元附近的高點，低點在 59,000 美元左右。

比特幣有一個有趣的波動性偏差。波動性往往會增加而導致上行走勢，而波動性則會減少而導致下行走勢

The crypto tends to increase in volatility into upside moves and decrease in volatility into downside moves.

加密貨幣往往會在上行走勢中增加波動性，在下行走勢中波動性降低。

Bitcoin (BTN) has seen significant downside over the month of June, hitting highs near $72,000 with lows trading in the $59,000 handle. Bitcoin tends to be the leader of the pack—as seen in comparison to Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), which have seen greater downside moves over the last month.

比特幣 (BTN) 在 6 月出現了大幅下跌，觸及 72,000 美元附近的高點，低點在 59,000 美元左右。與以太坊 (ETH) 和 Solana (SOL) 相比，比特幣往往是其中的佼佼者，後兩者在上個月出現了更大的下行走勢。

Bitcoin has an interesting volatility skew. It tends to increase in volatility into upside moves and decrease in volatility into downside moves. This is contrary to most asset classes. The S&P 500, for example, sees downside put skew. As prices go down, volatility in SPY tends to increase, meaning future price movements are expected to be greater. That’s why the expected move in Bitcoin seems relatively small — volatility is near historical lows. For context, 2021 saw highs in implied volatility north of 140%, contributing to this upside potential "asymmetric" returns associated with Bitcoin.

比特幣有一個有趣的波動性偏差。它往往會增加波動性導致上行走勢，而減少波動性則會導致下行走勢。這與大多數資產類別相反。例如，標準普爾 500 指數出現下行看跌偏斜。隨著價格下跌，SPY 的波動性往往會增加，這意味著未來價格變動預計會更大。這就是為什麼比特幣的預期波動似乎相對較小——波動性接近歷史低點。就背景而言，2021 年隱含波動率高達 140% 以上，導致與比特幣相關的潛在「不對稱」回報上升。

What's driving the Bitcoin weakness?

是什麼推動了比特幣的疲軟？

Risk on assets like stocks or crypto tend to be liquidity-driven and tend to move in a correlated fashion. Over the last month, we've seen expectations for future rate cuts decrease, and the strength in the dollar increase as a result. Without binary catalysts like earnings or business cycles, Bitcoin has remained much more negatively correlated to rate changes and dollar strength than the market as a whole.

股票或加密貨幣等資產的風險往往是流動性驅動的，並且往往以相關的方式變化。上個月，我們看到對未來降息的預期下降，美元因此走強。如果沒有收益或商業週期等二元催化劑，比特幣與利率變化和美元走強的負相關性比整個市場大得多。

Is it time to buy Bitcoin?

現在是購買比特幣的時候了嗎？

While it’s certainly hard to buy bottoms and sell tops, it should come as no surprise that incorporating volatile assets in a portfolio can accelerate potential returns. Even a small allocation might be appropriate, depending on your risk tolerance. Below is a breakdown of the returns of different portfolio allocations that shows even a 1% exposure to Bitcoin has outperformed a 60/40 portfolio.

雖然底部買入和頂部賣出確實很困難，但將波動性資產納入投資組合可以加速潛在回報也就不足為奇了。即使是少量分配也可能是合適的，這取決於您的風險承受能力。以下是不同投資組合配置的回報細目，顯示即使 1% 的比特幣敞口也優於 60/40 的投資組合。

There are many ways to trade Bitcoin outside of the spot allocation, such as IBIT (IShares Bitcoin Trust), It’s among other highly correlated equities like Coinbase (COIN) and the miners, such as Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA). The miners, in particular, while not 100% correlated to the price of Bitcoin, tend to have higher volatility than Coinbase or spot Bitcoin.

在現貨分配之外交易比特幣的方式有很多，例如 IBIT (IShares Bitcoin Trust)，以及其他高度相關的股票，例如 Coinbase (COIN) 和礦工，例如 Marathon Digital Holdings (MARA)。尤其是礦工，雖然與比特幣價格並非 100% 相關，但其波動性往往高於 Coinbase 或現貨比特幣。

Check out our in depth review of what’s moving the crypto market here and join us every Monday at 11 a.m. CDT with Ryan Grace of tastycrypto.

在這裡查看我們對加密貨幣市場推動因素的深入評論，並於每週一上午 11 點（美國中部夏令時間）與 tastycrypto 的 Ryan Grace 一起加入我們。

Get all of the latest crypto news from the tastycrypto blog.

從 tastycrypto 部落格獲取所有最新的加密新聞。

What do you think? Is Bitcoin a buy here? Let me know on twitter @TraderNickyBAT.

你怎麼認為？比特幣在這裡可以買嗎？請透過 Twitter @TraderNickyBAT 告訴我。

Nick Battista, tastylive director of market intelligence, has a decade of trading experience. He appears Monday-Friday on Options Trading Concepts Live. On Wednesdays, he co-hosts Johnny Trades. @tradernickybat

Nick Battista，tastylive 市場情報總監，擁有十年的交易經驗。他週一至週五出現在期權交易概念直播中。每週三，他與他人共同主持 Johnny Trades。 @tradernickybat

For live daily programming, market news and commentary, visit tastylive or the YouTube channels tastylive (for options traders), and tastyliveTrending for stocks, futures, forex & macro.

如需每日直播節目、市場新聞和評論，請造訪 tastylive 或 YouTube 頻道 tastylive（針對選擇權交易者）以及股票、期貨、外匯和宏觀交易的 tatyliveTrending。

Trade with a better broker, open a tastytrade account today. tastylive, Inc. and tastytrade, Inc. are separate but affiliated companies.

與更好的經紀商進行交易，立即開設一個美味的交易帳戶。 tastylive, Inc. 和 tastytrade, Inc. 是獨立但相關的公司。