比特币 (BTC) 在 90,000 美元至 95,000 美元区域波动，较历史高点下跌超过 10%

随着比特币 (BTC) 在 90,000 美元至 95,000 美元区域波动，较不到四个星期前触及的历史高点下跌超过 10%，交易者之间的反差正在加大

As bitcoin (BTC) price wobbles around the $90,000-$95,000 zone, down over 10% from its all-time high touched a bit less than four weeks ago, a contrast is growing between traders – whose technical analysis tools show the top cryptocurrency may be due for another drop – and long-term investors who believe the bull run is far from over.

随着比特币 (BTC) 价格在 90,000 美元至 95,000 美元区间波动，较不到四个星期前触及的历史高点下跌超过 10%，交易者之间的对比正在加大——他们的技术分析工具显示，顶级加密货币可能是预计将再次下跌，而长期投资者则认为牛市远未结束。

That’s according to David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, a firm that provides asset management services to funds and high net-worth individuals in the crypto space. The company counts Charles Hoskinson, the CEO of the firm behind Cardano, among its clients.

这是 Wave Digital Assets 首席执行官 David Siemer 的说法，该公司为加密货币领域的基金和高净值个人提供资产管理服务。该公司的客户包括卡尔达诺背后公司的首席执行官查尔斯·霍斯金森 (Charles Hoskinson)。

“In 14 years of owning bitcoin, I've never seen a dichotomy like this,” Siemer told CoinDesk in an interview. “The traders are all worried and nervous and hedged, fully neutral or worse. And the long-term people are all super bullish.”

“在拥有比特币 14 年来，我从未见过这样的二分法，”Siemer 在接受 CoinDesk 采访时说道。 “交易员们都感到担忧、紧张和对冲，完全中立或更糟。而长线人士都非常看好。”

“There’s a really good chance we’ll go to $200,000 [per bitcoin] this year,” Siemer said. “Do I think we’ll see $1 million dollars per coin in my lifetime? Sure. Not soon, you know, not in the next year. … The smart, more connected people that I know are also really bullish. More is going to happen in the next six months than most people realize.”

“今年我们很有可能达到[每个比特币]200,000 美元，”Siemer 说。 “我认为在我有生之年，我们会看到每枚硬币价值 100 万美元吗？当然。你知道，不会很快，也不会明年。 ……我认识的那些聪明、人脉更广的人也非常乐观。未来六个月将会发生比大多数人意识到的更多的事情。”

Top of the list of developments for the year to come is that numerous jurisdictions – including the U.S., Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and some European nations – are looking to take big steps in crypto’s favor, according to Siemer. (Wave runs crypto educational programs for various branches of the U.S. government, like the Internal Revenue Service or U.S. Marshals Service, as well as other executive bodies across the globe; in fact, government practices is the firm’s fastest growing business.)

未来一年最重要的发展是，包括美国、俄罗斯、新加坡、阿拉伯联合酋长国、韩国、日本、菲律宾和一些欧洲国家在内的许多司法管辖区都在寻求采取有利于加密货币的重大举措据西默说。 （Wave 为美国政府的各个部门（例如美国国税局或美国法警局）以及全球其他执行机构运行加密货币教育项目；事实上，政府实践是该公司增长最快的业务。）

These steps, whichever form they take, will likely have positive knock-on effects on some of these countries’ private sectors, Siemer said. “[Japan or Singapore], those are societies where they actually trust and rely on their governments. If their government says it's okay, it's actually really okay. It’s different from the U.S. where we think our guys are idiots.”

西默表示，这些措施无论采取何种形式，都可能对其中一些国家的私营部门产生积极的连锁反应。 “[日本或新加坡]，这些社会是他们真正信任和依赖政府的。如果他们的政府说没关系，那实际上就真的没问题。这与美国不同，我们认为我们的人都是白痴。”

What is spurring such sudden interest in the crypto industry? The huge success of the U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), for one, is forcing financial institutions around the world to figure out ways to compete. That means spinning up new exotic products, like multi-token yield funds, to make up for the liquidity that was sucked away by the likes of BlackRock’s IBIT.

是什么激发了人们对加密行业如此突然的兴趣？一方面，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的巨大成功迫使世界各地的金融机构寻找竞争之道。这意味着要推出新的奇异产品，例如多代币收益基金，以弥补被贝莱德 IBIT 等产品吸走的流动性。

“The ETFs launched in America and they absolutely devastated all the bitcoin ETPs around the world,” Siemer said. “All of them had these terrible products, charging 1.5%. All of those guys got crushed.” Regulators, for their part, will tend to be supportive, Siemer said. For example, the European Union could end up producing a friendlier version of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

“这些 ETF 在美国推出，它们绝对摧毁了世界各地所有的比特币 ETP，”Siemer 说。 “他们都有这些糟糕的产品，收费 1.5%。所有那些人都被压垮了。”西默说，就监管机构而言，他们往往会提供支持。例如，欧盟最终可能会制定一个更友好版本的加密资产市场监管（MiCA）。

The chances of seeing new strategic bitcoin reserves is also high, Siemer said. “Even if the U.S. doesn't do a reserve, at least several other countries probably will,” he added. Not that he’s bearish on prospects in the U.S. Wave, he said, is currently in talks with seven different states that are considering the matter of creating a reserve, Texas, Ohio and Wyoming among them.

西默表示，看到新的比特币战略储备的可能性也很高。 “即使美国不做储备，至少其他几个国家可能会做，”他补充道。他表示，这并不是说他对“美国浪潮”的前景持悲观态度，目前正在与七个不同的州进行谈判，这些州正在考虑建立保护区的问题，其中包括德克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和怀俄明州。

What about the federal government? Siemer put the odds at slightly better than 50-50, in part thanks to the nearly $19 billion worth of bitcoin it already owns.

那么联邦政府呢？ Siemer 认为赔率略高于 50-50，部分原因是该公司已拥有价值近 190 亿美元的比特币。

“That's a decent start on a bitcoin reserve,” Siemer said. “All they have to do is not sell it. It’s a lot more palatable to the tax base than buying, you know, $10 billion worth of bitcoin.”

“这是比特币储备的良好开端，”西默说。 “他们所要做的就是不卖掉它。对于税基来说，这比购买价值 100 亿美元的比特币要容易得多。”