比特幣 (BTC) 在 90,000 美元至 95,000 美元區域波動，較歷史高點下跌超過 10%

隨著比特幣 (BTC) 在 90,000 美元至 95,000 美元區域波動，較不到四個星期前觸及的歷史高點下跌超過 10%，交易者之間的反差正在加大

As bitcoin (BTC) price wobbles around the $90,000-$95,000 zone, down over 10% from its all-time high touched a bit less than four weeks ago, a contrast is growing between traders – whose technical analysis tools show the top cryptocurrency may be due for another drop – and long-term investors who believe the bull run is far from over.

隨著比特幣(BTC) 價格在90,000 美元至95,000 美元區間波動，較不到四個星期前觸及的歷史高點下跌超過10%，交易者之間的對比正在加大——他們的技術分析工具顯示，頂級加密貨幣可能是預計將再次下跌，而長期投資者則認為牛市遠未結束。

That’s according to David Siemer, CEO of Wave Digital Assets, a firm that provides asset management services to funds and high net-worth individuals in the crypto space. The company counts Charles Hoskinson, the CEO of the firm behind Cardano, among its clients.

這是 Wave Digital Assets 執行長 David Siemer 的說法，該公司為加密貨幣領域的基金和高淨值人士提供資產管理服務。該公司的客戶包括卡爾達諾背後公司的執行長查爾斯·霍斯金森 (Charles Hoskinson)。

“In 14 years of owning bitcoin, I've never seen a dichotomy like this,” Siemer told CoinDesk in an interview. “The traders are all worried and nervous and hedged, fully neutral or worse. And the long-term people are all super bullish.”

「在擁有比特幣 14 年來，我從未見過這樣的二分法，」Siemer 在接受 CoinDesk 採訪時說道。 「交易員們都感到擔憂、緊張和對沖，完全中立或更糟。而長線人士都非常看好。

“There’s a really good chance we’ll go to $200,000 [per bitcoin] this year,” Siemer said. “Do I think we’ll see $1 million dollars per coin in my lifetime? Sure. Not soon, you know, not in the next year. … The smart, more connected people that I know are also really bullish. More is going to happen in the next six months than most people realize.”

「今年我們很有可能達到[每個比特幣]20 萬美元，」Siemer 說。 「我認為在我有生之年，我們會看到每枚硬幣價值 100 萬美元嗎？當然。你知道，不會很快，也不會明年。 ……我認識的那些聰明、人脈更廣的人也非常樂觀。未來六個月將會發生比大多數人意識到的更多的事情。

Top of the list of developments for the year to come is that numerous jurisdictions – including the U.S., Russia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, South Korea, Japan, the Philippines and some European nations – are looking to take big steps in crypto’s favor, according to Siemer. (Wave runs crypto educational programs for various branches of the U.S. government, like the Internal Revenue Service or U.S. Marshals Service, as well as other executive bodies across the globe; in fact, government practices is the firm’s fastest growing business.)

未來一年最重要的發展是，包括美國、俄羅斯、新加坡、阿拉伯聯合大公國、韓國、日本、菲律賓和一些歐洲國家在內的許多司法管轄區都在尋求採取有利於加密貨幣的重大舉措據西默說。 （Wave 為美國政府的各個部門（例如美國國稅局或美國法警局）以及全球其他執行機構運行加密貨幣教育計畫；事實上，政府實踐是該公司成長最快的業務。）

These steps, whichever form they take, will likely have positive knock-on effects on some of these countries’ private sectors, Siemer said. “[Japan or Singapore], those are societies where they actually trust and rely on their governments. If their government says it's okay, it's actually really okay. It’s different from the U.S. where we think our guys are idiots.”

西默表示，這些措施無論採取何種形式，都可能對其中一些國家的私部門產生正面的連鎖反應。 「[日本或新加坡]，這些社會是他們真正信任和依賴政府的。如果他們的政府說沒關係，那其實真的沒問題。這與美國不同，我們認為我們的人都是白痴。

What is spurring such sudden interest in the crypto industry? The huge success of the U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), for one, is forcing financial institutions around the world to figure out ways to compete. That means spinning up new exotic products, like multi-token yield funds, to make up for the liquidity that was sucked away by the likes of BlackRock’s IBIT.

是什麼激發了人們對加密產業如此突然的興趣？一方面，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）的巨大成功迫使世界各地的金融機構尋找競爭之道。這意味著要推出新的奇異產品，例如多代幣收益基金，以彌補被貝萊德 IBIT 等產品吸走的流動性。

“The ETFs launched in America and they absolutely devastated all the bitcoin ETPs around the world,” Siemer said. “All of them had these terrible products, charging 1.5%. All of those guys got crushed.” Regulators, for their part, will tend to be supportive, Siemer said. For example, the European Union could end up producing a friendlier version of the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

「這些 ETF 在美國推出，它們絕對摧毀了世界各地所有的比特幣 ETP，」Siemer 說。 「他們都有這些糟糕的產品，收費 1.5%。所有那些人都被壓垮了。西默說，就監管機構而言，他們往往會提供支持。例如，歐盟最終可能會制定一個更友善版本的加密資產市場監管（MiCA）。

The chances of seeing new strategic bitcoin reserves is also high, Siemer said. “Even if the U.S. doesn't do a reserve, at least several other countries probably will,” he added. Not that he’s bearish on prospects in the U.S. Wave, he said, is currently in talks with seven different states that are considering the matter of creating a reserve, Texas, Ohio and Wyoming among them.

西默表示，看到新的比特幣戰略儲備的可能性也很高。 「即使美國不做儲備，至少其他幾個國家可能會做，」他補充道。他表示，這並不是說他對「美國浪潮」的前景持悲觀態度，目前正在與七個不同的州進行談判，這些州正在考慮建立保護區的問題，其中包括德克薩斯州、俄亥俄州和懷俄明州。

What about the federal government? Siemer put the odds at slightly better than 50-50, in part thanks to the nearly $19 billion worth of bitcoin it already owns.

那麼聯邦政府呢？ Siemer 認為賠率略高於 50-50，部分原因是該公司已擁有價值近 190 億美元的比特幣。

“That's a decent start on a bitcoin reserve,” Siemer said. “All they have to do is not sell it. It’s a lot more palatable to the tax base than buying, you know, $10 billion worth of bitcoin.”

「這是比特幣儲備的良好開端，」西默說。 「他們所要做的就是不賣掉它。對於稅基來說，這比購買價值 100 億美元的比特幣要容易得多。