比特币（BTC）发现稳定性接近$ 84,500，因为鲸鱼没有恐慌出售的迹象

在漫长的纠正阶段之后，比特币正在发现稳定性左右$ 84,500。随着鲸鱼行为的稳定，一个主要的机构长期下注在市场上，关键的技术指标转移以看涨

Bitcoin price has been hovering around the $84,500 mark.

比特币价格徘徊在84,500美元左右。

The crypto behemoth is now slowly showing signs of technical stability. A major institutional long bet is also on the horizon, and key technical indicators are shifting to bullish.

加密庞然大物现在正在缓慢显示出技术稳定的迹象。一个主要的机构长下注也即将到来，关键的技术指标正在转变为看涨。

This is putting investors in a more optimistic mood.

这使投资者的心情更加乐观。

However, some analysts are urging caution as historical patterns suggest that it might take months for a complete structural recovery.

但是，一些分析师敦促谨慎，因为历史模式表明，完全恢复可能需要几个月的时间。

What happened

发生了什么

As institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, a new long-term futures contract has been spotted on Binance at an impressive size of 10,000 BTC.

随着对比特币的机构兴趣的不断增长，发现了一份新的长期期货合约，其义务的大小令人印象深刻10,000 BTC。

This translates to a staggering value of over $84 million at current price levels.

这意味着在当前价格水平上的惊人价值超过8400万美元。

The creation of this new futures contract is a significant event as it signals a major institutional investor is making a substantial commitment to a bullish presence in the Bitcoin market over the long term.

这份新期货合约的创建是一项重大事件，因为它表明了一位主要的机构投资者在长期内对在比特币市场中的看涨表现做出了实质性承诺。

This is a vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future potential.

这是对比特币未来潜力的信心投票。

Furthermore, recent on-chain data from Binance sheds light on the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, commonly known as whales, during this period of macroeconomic uncertainty.

此外，在这一宏观经济不确定性的时期，造成的近期链链数据阐明了大型比特币持有人（通常称为鲸鱼）的行为。

According to analyst Darkfost, who specializes in on-chain analysis, there are two main indicators to consider when examining the activity of Binance whales.

专门研究链分析的分析师Darkfost认为，在检查二鲸活动时，有两个主要指标需要考虑。

The Exchange Whale Ratio on Binance is a measure of the balance between large buy and sell orders on the exchange.

交换鲸鱼比率是衡量大型买卖交换订单之间的平衡。

It is a key indicator used to assess the strength of institutional interest and activity in specific cryptocurrencies.

它是用于评估特定加密货币中机构兴趣和活动强度的关键指标。

In the case of Binance, the 365-day moving average of the Exchange Whale Ratio is on a consistent upward trend, which signifies that whales have a greater impact on Binance’s fund flows over more extended periods.

就二进制而言，交换鲸比的365天移动平均值处于稳定的上升趋势，这表明鲸鱼在更长的时间内会对二钱的基金流动产生更大的影响。

This finding suggests an underlying conviction among these major investors in the cryptocurrency.

这一发现表明，这些主要投资者在加密货币中的基本信念。

On the other hand, the 30-day average of the same metric has been decreasing, returning to levels last seen in late 2024.

另一方面，同一度量的30天平均值正在下降，恢复到2024年底最后一次出现的水平。

This short-term decline in activity indicates that these big players are pulling back on selling pressure.

活动的这种短期下降表明，这些大球员正在压力销售压力。

To put things in perspective, total whale inflows into Binance have dropped by more than $3 billion, a move that echoes the behavior seen during previous Bitcoin corrections.

从角度看，总的鲸鱼流入量已经下降了超过30亿美元，这一举动呼应了以前的比特币校正期间所见的行为。

This analysis suggests that whales are not in a hurry to sell their coins and are instead choosing to sit back and observe the market trends more closely.

该分析表明，鲸鱼并不急于出售硬币，而是选择坐下来更仔细地观察市场趋势。

What does it mean for investors?

这对投资者意味着什么？

Bitcoin’s daily chart aligns with cautious optimism as it trades above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the local low of $74,434 to the high of $88,772.

比特币的每日图表与谨慎的乐观情绪保持一致，因为它的交易高于0.618斐波那契回回的水平，从$ 74,434的本地低点到高额$ 88,772。

Bitcoin is currently testing the 0.786 level of the Fibonacci. It is now trading above the 0.618 level of $83,195 and is testing the 0.786 level of $85,704.

比特币目前正在测试斐波那契的0.786水平。现在，它的交易高于0.618级别的83,195美元，并且正在测试0.786美元的85,704美元。

The prior high of $88,772 is the immediate major resistance.

先前的88,772美元的高点是直接的主要阻力。

Should price break above $88,772, the next major target is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of $97,633.

如果价格下价高于$ 88,772，下一个主要目标是1.618斐波那契的扩展为97,633美元。

This is followed by possible moves to $111,971, $126,309, and even $135,170 in a sustained uptrend.

接下来，可能会移至111,971美元，$ 126,309，甚至$ 135,170的持续上升趋势。

The MACD line has recently crossed above the signal line, and histogram bars are climbing into positive territory. This is a classic signal that buyers are regaining control.

MACD线最近越过信号线上，直方图杆正爬入正区域。这是买家重新控制的经典信号。

Despite the improved technical and on-chain picture, some analysts advise patience.

尽管有改善的技术和链上图，但一些分析师建议耐心。

According to analyst Kripto Mevsimi, historical patterns, particularly from the 2021 cycle, show that even when key metrics like demand or price start to bounce, a true structural recovery can take several months.

根据分析师Kripto Mevsimi的说法，历史模式，尤其是从2021年周期开始，即使在需求或价格之类的关键指标开始反弹时，真正的结构恢复也可能需要几个月。

During previous cycles, demand metrics remained negative or hovered around zero for extended periods before any sustainable bullish trend emerged from new highs.

在先前的周期中，需求指标在长时间内保持负数或悬停在零左右，然后在新高点出现任何可持续的看涨趋势之前。

Although Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand shows a bounce, it might be reflecting temporary relief. It is not yet indicating confirmed accumulation or a definitive bottom.

尽管比特币的30天明显需求显示出反弹，但它可能反映出暂时的缓解。它尚未表明已确认的积累或确定的底部。

Sustained buying volume and time are still needed to fully confirm a market turn.

仍然需要持续的购买量和时间来完全确认市场转折。