比特幣（BTC）發現穩定性接近$ 84,500，因為鯨魚沒有恐慌出售的跡象

在漫長的糾正階段之後，比特幣正在發現穩定性左右$ 84,500。隨著鯨魚行為的穩定，一個主要的機構長期下注在市場上，關鍵的技術指標轉移以看漲

Bitcoin price has been hovering around the $84,500 mark.

比特幣價格徘徊在84,500美元左右。

The crypto behemoth is now slowly showing signs of technical stability. A major institutional long bet is also on the horizon, and key technical indicators are shifting to bullish.

加密龐然大物現在正在緩慢顯示出技術穩定的跡象。一個主要的機構長下注也即將到來，關鍵的技術指標正在轉變為看漲。

This is putting investors in a more optimistic mood.

這使投資者的心情更加樂觀。

However, some analysts are urging caution as historical patterns suggest that it might take months for a complete structural recovery.

但是，一些分析師敦促謹慎，因為歷史模式表明，完全恢復可能需要幾個月的時間。

What happened

發生了什麼

As institutional interest in Bitcoin continues to grow, a new long-term futures contract has been spotted on Binance at an impressive size of 10,000 BTC.

隨著對比特幣的機構興趣的不斷增長，發現了一份新的長期期貨合約，其義務的大小令人印象深刻10,000 BTC。

This translates to a staggering value of over $84 million at current price levels.

這意味著在當前價格水平上的驚人價值超過8400萬美元。

The creation of this new futures contract is a significant event as it signals a major institutional investor is making a substantial commitment to a bullish presence in the Bitcoin market over the long term.

這份新期貨合約的創建是一項重大事件，因為它表明了一位主要的機構投資者在長期內對在比特幣市場中的看漲表現做出了實質性承諾。

This is a vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future potential.

這是對比特幣未來潛力的信心投票。

Furthermore, recent on-chain data from Binance sheds light on the behavior of large Bitcoin holders, commonly known as whales, during this period of macroeconomic uncertainty.

此外，在這一宏觀經濟不確定性的時期，造成的近期鍊鍊數據闡明了大型比特幣持有人（通常稱為鯨魚）的行為。

According to analyst Darkfost, who specializes in on-chain analysis, there are two main indicators to consider when examining the activity of Binance whales.

專門研究鏈分析的分析師Darkfost認為，在檢查二鯨活動時，有兩個主要指標需要考慮。

The Exchange Whale Ratio on Binance is a measure of the balance between large buy and sell orders on the exchange.

交換鯨魚比率是衡量大型買賣交換訂單之間的平衡。

It is a key indicator used to assess the strength of institutional interest and activity in specific cryptocurrencies.

它是用於評估特定加密貨幣中機構興趣和活動強度的關鍵指標。

In the case of Binance, the 365-day moving average of the Exchange Whale Ratio is on a consistent upward trend, which signifies that whales have a greater impact on Binance’s fund flows over more extended periods.

就二進製而言，交換鯨比的365天移動平均值處於穩定的上升趨勢，這表明鯨魚在更長的時間內會對二錢的基金流動產生更大的影響。

This finding suggests an underlying conviction among these major investors in the cryptocurrency.

這一發現表明，這些主要投資者在加密貨幣中的基本信念。

On the other hand, the 30-day average of the same metric has been decreasing, returning to levels last seen in late 2024.

另一方面，同一度量的30天平均值正在下降，恢復到2024年底最後一次出現的水平。

This short-term decline in activity indicates that these big players are pulling back on selling pressure.

活動的這種短期下降表明，這些大球員正在壓力銷售壓力。

To put things in perspective, total whale inflows into Binance have dropped by more than $3 billion, a move that echoes the behavior seen during previous Bitcoin corrections.

從角度看，總的鯨魚流入量已經下降了超過30億美元，這一舉動呼應了以前的比特幣校正期間所見的行為。

This analysis suggests that whales are not in a hurry to sell their coins and are instead choosing to sit back and observe the market trends more closely.

該分析表明，鯨魚並不急於出售硬幣，而是選擇坐下來更仔細地觀察市場趨勢。

What does it mean for investors?

這對投資者意味著什麼？

Bitcoin’s daily chart aligns with cautious optimism as it trades above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the local low of $74,434 to the high of $88,772.

比特幣的每日圖表與謹慎的樂觀情緒保持一致，因為它的交易高於0.618斐波那契回回的水平，從$ 74,434的本地低點到高額$ 88,772。

Bitcoin is currently testing the 0.786 level of the Fibonacci. It is now trading above the 0.618 level of $83,195 and is testing the 0.786 level of $85,704.

比特幣目前正在測試斐波那契的0.786水平。現在，它的交易高於0.618級別的83,195美元，並且正在測試0.786美元的85,704美元。

The prior high of $88,772 is the immediate major resistance.

先前的88,772美元的高點是直接的主要阻力。

Should price break above $88,772, the next major target is the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of $97,633.

如果價格下價高於$ 88,772，下一個主要目標是1.618斐波那契的擴展為97,633美元。

This is followed by possible moves to $111,971, $126,309, and even $135,170 in a sustained uptrend.

接下來，可能會移至111,971美元，$ 126,309，甚至$ 135,170的持續上升趨勢。

The MACD line has recently crossed above the signal line, and histogram bars are climbing into positive territory. This is a classic signal that buyers are regaining control.

MACD線最近越過信號線上，直方圖桿正爬入正區域。這是買家重新控制的經典信號。

Despite the improved technical and on-chain picture, some analysts advise patience.

儘管有改善的技術和鏈上圖，但一些分析師建議耐心。

According to analyst Kripto Mevsimi, historical patterns, particularly from the 2021 cycle, show that even when key metrics like demand or price start to bounce, a true structural recovery can take several months.

根據分析師Kripto Mevsimi的說法，歷史模式，尤其是從2021年周期開始，即使在需求或價格之類的關鍵指標開始反彈時，真正的結構恢復也可能需要幾個月。

During previous cycles, demand metrics remained negative or hovered around zero for extended periods before any sustainable bullish trend emerged from new highs.

在先前的周期中，需求指標在長時間內保持負數或懸停在零左右，然後在新高點出現任何可持續的看漲趨勢之前。

Although Bitcoin’s 30-day apparent demand shows a bounce, it might be reflecting temporary relief. It is not yet indicating confirmed accumulation or a definitive bottom.

儘管比特幣的30天明顯需求顯示出反彈，但它可能反映出暫時的緩解。它尚未表明已確認的積累或確定的底部。

Sustained buying volume and time are still needed to fully confirm a market turn.

仍然需要持續的購買量和時間來完全確認市場轉折。