比特币（BTC）的基础不稳定吗？市场信号反映的模式预示着特朗普媒体股价近期的下滑

由于美联储官员的鹰派言论，比特币的涨势陷入停滞。

Bitcoin’s recent rally has stalled amid hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve officials, sparking concerns over a potential price pullback.

由于美联储官员的鹰派言论，比特币近期的涨势陷入停滞，引发了人们对价格潜在回调的担忧。

However, developments in the Deribit-listed options market tied to the cryptocurrency are also hinting at a higher probability of BTC trading at lower prices in the upcoming sessions.

然而，与加密货币相关的 Deribit 上市期权市场的发展也暗示，在接下来的几个交易日中，比特币以较低价格交易的可能性更大。

Specifically, the implied probability distribution – a representation of markets' expectations for the underlying asset's future price derived from options prices at different strike prices and expiration dates – is now showing a “left shift.” This suggests that a majority of the market participants are bracing for a pullback from the current levels, as per crypto financial platform BloFin.

具体来说，隐含概率分布（代表市场对不同执行价格和到期日的期权价格得出的标的资产未来价格的预期）现在呈现出“左移”。根据加密金融平台 BloFin 的说法，这表明大多数市场参与者正在准备从当前水平回调。

"A typical indicator is the implied probability distribution: whether it is MSTR, COIN or Deribit's BTC options, the implied probability distribution of different expiration dates has shown a significant left shift," Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at BloFin, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat. "It seems that traders have an implied consensus that the prices of BTC and altcoins are still high, and more pullbacks may be on the way."

BloFin 期权交易和研究主管 Griffin Ardern 表示：“一个典型的指标是隐含概率分布：无论是 MSTR、COIN 还是 Deribit 的 BTC 期权，不同到期日的隐含概率分布都呈现出明显的左移。” Telegram 聊天中的 CoinDesk。 “交易者似乎有一个隐含的共识，即比特币和山寨币的价格仍然很高，并且可能会出现更多回调。”

Ardern added that a similar left shift was observed in the DJT options market ahead of the recent slide in the stock. The share price has since halved to $27 in just over two weeks, as per charting platform TradingView. DJT shares had soared to a high of $54 at the end of October as markets priced in a potential victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election held on Nov. 5.

Ardern 补充说，在近期股价下跌之前，DJT 期权市场也出现了类似的左移。根据图表平台 TradingView 的数据，在短短两周多的时间里，股价已减半至 27 美元。由于市场消化了共和党候选人唐纳德·特朗普在 11 月 5 日举行的美国大选中获胜的可能性，DJT 股价在 10 月底飙升至 54 美元的高位。

After Trump's victory, BTC has surged by over $20,000, tapping the $93,000 mark at one point. The cryptocurrency was last seen changing hands at $88,100, as per CoinDesk data.

特朗普获胜后，BTC 飙升超过 20,000 美元，一度触及 93,000 美元大关。根据 CoinDesk 数据，该加密货币最后一次易手价格为 88,100 美元。

Hawkish comments from the Fed officials are also bolstering the case for a price pullback, as highlighted by the implied volatility distribution. On Thursday, Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates, dashing hopes for faster liquidity easing. The Fed has already cut rates by 75 basis points since September, offering bullish cues to risk assets.

美联储官员的鹰派言论也支持了价格回调的理由，隐含波动率分布凸显了这一点。周四，主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，经济并未发出任何我们需要急于降低利率的信号，这让加快流动性宽松的希望破灭。自9月份以来，美联储已降息75个基点，为风险资产提供了看涨信号。

That said, the majority of the market participants are still betting on a potential price rise beyond the $100,000 barrier, as evident from the market trades.

尽管如此，从市场交易中可以明显看出，大多数市场参与者仍押注价格可能上涨至 10 万美元以上。