比特幣（BTC）的基礎不穩定嗎？市場訊號反映的模式預示著川普媒體股價近期的下滑

由於聯準會官員的鷹派言論，比特幣的漲勢陷入停滯。

Bitcoin’s recent rally has stalled amid hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve officials, sparking concerns over a potential price pullback.

由於聯準會官員的鷹派言論，比特幣近期的漲勢陷入停滯，引發了人們對價格潛在回調的擔憂。

However, developments in the Deribit-listed options market tied to the cryptocurrency are also hinting at a higher probability of BTC trading at lower prices in the upcoming sessions.

然而，與加密貨幣相關的 Deribit 上市選擇權市場的發展也暗示，在接下來的幾個交易日中，比特幣以較低價格交易的可能性更大。

Specifically, the implied probability distribution – a representation of markets' expectations for the underlying asset's future price derived from options prices at different strike prices and expiration dates – is now showing a “left shift.” This suggests that a majority of the market participants are bracing for a pullback from the current levels, as per crypto financial platform BloFin.

具體來說，隱含機率分佈（代表市場對不同執行價格和到期日的選擇價格得出的標的資產未來價格的預期）現在呈現出「左移」。根據加密金融平台 BloFin 的說法，這表明大多數市場參與者正在準備從當前水準回調。

"A typical indicator is the implied probability distribution: whether it is MSTR, COIN or Deribit's BTC options, the implied probability distribution of different expiration dates has shown a significant left shift," Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at BloFin, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat. "It seems that traders have an implied consensus that the prices of BTC and altcoins are still high, and more pullbacks may be on the way."

BloFin 選擇權交易與研究主管 Griffin Ardern 表示：“一個典型的指標是隱含機率分佈：無論是 MSTR、COIN 還是 Deribit 的 BTC 選擇權，不同到期日的隱含機率分佈都呈現出明顯的左移。” Telegram 聊天中的CoinDesk。 “交易者似乎有一個隱含的共識，即比特幣和山寨幣的價格仍然很高，並且可能會出現更多回調。”

Ardern added that a similar left shift was observed in the DJT options market ahead of the recent slide in the stock. The share price has since halved to $27 in just over two weeks, as per charting platform TradingView. DJT shares had soared to a high of $54 at the end of October as markets priced in a potential victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. election held on Nov. 5.

Ardern 補充說，在近期股價下跌之前，DJT 選擇權市場也出現了類似的左移。根據圖表平台 TradingView 的數據，在短短兩週多的時間裡，股價已減半至 27 美元。由於市場消化了共和黨候選人唐納德·川普在 11 月 5 日舉行的美國大選中獲勝的可能性，DJT 股價在 10 月底飆升至 54 美元的高點。

After Trump's victory, BTC has surged by over $20,000, tapping the $93,000 mark at one point. The cryptocurrency was last seen changing hands at $88,100, as per CoinDesk data.

川普獲勝後，BTC 飆升超過 2 萬美元，一度觸及 9.3 萬美元大關。根據 CoinDesk 數據，該加密貨幣最後一次易手價格為 88,100 美元。

Hawkish comments from the Fed officials are also bolstering the case for a price pullback, as highlighted by the implied volatility distribution. On Thursday, Chairman Jerome Powell said that the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates, dashing hopes for faster liquidity easing. The Fed has already cut rates by 75 basis points since September, offering bullish cues to risk assets.

聯準會官員的鷹派言論也支持了價格回檔的理由，隱含波動率分佈就凸顯了這一點。週四，主席鮑威爾表示，經濟並未發出任何我們需要急於降低利率的信號，這讓加快流動性寬鬆的希望破滅。自9月以來，聯準會已降息75個基點，為風險資產提供了看漲訊號。

That said, the majority of the market participants are still betting on a potential price rise beyond the $100,000 barrier, as evident from the market trades.

儘管如此，從市場交易中可以明顯看出，大多數市場參與者仍然押注價格可能上漲至 10 萬美元以上。