比特币（BTC）已成为一种风险资产，跟踪澳大利亚美元（aud/jpy）对

自3月以来，唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战已经引起了金融市场的大量波动，促使投资者追逐他们认为的资产

President Donald Trump's trade war has brought significant volatility to financial markets since March, prompting investors to seek out assets that they believe provide an hedge in this turbulent environment.

自3月以来，唐纳德·特朗普总统的贸易战为金融市场带来了巨大的波动，促使投资者寻求他们认为在这种动荡的环境中提供对冲的资产。

What’s clear: Bitcoin (BTC) is not one of them, much to the dismay of bullish investors who have been touting the largest cryptocurrency as digital gold either as a store of value or a haven investment. The reality is that since the onset of the trade war, bitcoin has become more closely correlated with the Aussie dollar-yen pair (AUD/JPY), the foreign exchange market’s risk barometer.

清楚的是：比特币（BTC）不是其中之一，这让看涨的投资者感到沮丧，他们一直在吹捧最大的加密货币作为数字黄金作为价值存储或避风港投资。现实情况是，自从贸易战开始以来，比特币与外汇市场风险晴雨表的澳大利亚美元对澳大利亚澳大利亚（AUD/JPY）变得更加紧密相关。

According to data from TradingView, the 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the AUD/JPY pair flipped positive in late February and has since hit the highest since November 2021. The tit-for-tat tariff war between the two nations has seen a staggering 245% cumulative levy on Chinese imports to the U.S., leading to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighting stagflation risks on Wednesday.

According to data from TradingView, the 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the AUD/JPY pair flipped positive in late February and has since hit the highest since November 2021. The tit-for-tat tariff war between the two nations has seen a staggering 245% cumulative levy on Chinese imports to the US, leading to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighting stagflation risks on Wednesday.

The correlation of 0.80 - the maximum value is 1 - is deemed strong, implying that the two variables, BTC and AUD/JPY, are closely related in their movements in the same direction.

0.80的相关性 - 最大值为1-被认为是强的，这意味着两个变量BTC和AUD/JPY在同一方向上的运动中密切相关。

In contrast, bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold flipped negative in late February and has since dropped to -0.80, just above the minimum -1. It means the two are closely related in their movements, but in opposite directions.

相比之下，比特币与2月下旬的黄金的90天相关性，此后跌至-0.80，高于最低-1。这意味着两者在动作中与相反的方向密切相关。

BTC, a proxy for risk

BTC，风险代理

The Australian dollar, being China-sensitive and the home currency of a commodity-exporting nation, is considered a risk currency. The yen is a safe haven as Japan has been a net international creditor for decades with nearly-zero interest rates.

澳元对中国敏感和商品出来的国家的屋货币被认为是风险货币。日元是一个避风港，因为日本数十年来一直是国际债权人的净债权人，利率将近零。

When global markets are optimistic and commodity demand increases, the AUD typically appreciates, which reflects a higher risk appetite among investors and the yen drops. The opposite holds true when they become risk-averse.

当全球市场乐观且商品需求增加时，AUD通常会欣赏，这反映了投资者和日元下降的风险更高。当它们变得规避风险时，相反的情况就成立了。

Traders, therefore, monitor AUD/JPY as a risk indicator, with uptrends viewed as positive signs for risk assets like stocks, and vice versa. Bitcoin, which was already emerging in a comparable role, has seen its position strengthen. The correlation data shows that BTC is now as much a proxy for risk sentiment as AUD/JPY.

因此，交易者监视AUD/JPY作为风险指标，上升趋势被视为股票等风险资产的积极迹象，反之亦然。比特币已经出现在可比的角色中，已经看到了其位置的加强。相关数据表明，BTC现在与AUD/JPY一样是风险情绪的代理。