比特幣（BTC）已成為一種風險資產，跟踪澳大利亞美元（aud/jpy）對

自3月以來，唐納德·特朗普總統的貿易戰已經引起了金融市場的大量波動，促使投資者追逐他們認為的資產

President Donald Trump's trade war has brought significant volatility to financial markets since March, prompting investors to seek out assets that they believe provide an hedge in this turbulent environment.

自3月以來，唐納德·特朗普總統的貿易戰為金融市場帶來了巨大的波動，促使投資者尋求他們認為在這種動蕩的環境中提供對沖的資產。

What’s clear: Bitcoin (BTC) is not one of them, much to the dismay of bullish investors who have been touting the largest cryptocurrency as digital gold either as a store of value or a haven investment. The reality is that since the onset of the trade war, bitcoin has become more closely correlated with the Aussie dollar-yen pair (AUD/JPY), the foreign exchange market’s risk barometer.

清楚的是：比特幣（BTC）不是其中之一，這讓看漲的投資者感到沮喪，他們一直在吹捧最大的加密貨幣作為數字黃金作為價值存儲或避風港投資。現實情況是，自從貿易戰開始以來，比特幣與外匯市場風險晴雨表的澳大利亞美元對澳大利亞澳大利亞（AUD/JPY）變得更加緊密相關。

According to data from TradingView, the 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the AUD/JPY pair flipped positive in late February and has since hit the highest since November 2021. The tit-for-tat tariff war between the two nations has seen a staggering 245% cumulative levy on Chinese imports to the U.S., leading to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighting stagflation risks on Wednesday.

According to data from TradingView, the 90-day correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the AUD/JPY pair flipped positive in late February and has since hit the highest since November 2021. The tit-for-tat tariff war between the two nations has seen a staggering 245% cumulative levy on Chinese imports to the US, leading to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighting stagflation risks on Wednesday.

The correlation of 0.80 - the maximum value is 1 - is deemed strong, implying that the two variables, BTC and AUD/JPY, are closely related in their movements in the same direction.

0.80的相關性 - 最大值為1-被認為是強的，這意味著兩個變量BTC和AUD/JPY在同一方向上的運動中密切相關。

In contrast, bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold flipped negative in late February and has since dropped to -0.80, just above the minimum -1. It means the two are closely related in their movements, but in opposite directions.

相比之下，比特幣與2月下旬的黃金的90天相關性，此後跌至-0.80，高於最低-1。這意味著兩者在動作中與相反的方向密切相關。

BTC, a proxy for risk

BTC，風險代理

The Australian dollar, being China-sensitive and the home currency of a commodity-exporting nation, is considered a risk currency. The yen is a safe haven as Japan has been a net international creditor for decades with nearly-zero interest rates.

澳元對中國敏感和商品出來的國家的屋貨幣被認為是風險貨幣。日元是一個避風港，因為日本數十年來一直是國際債權人的淨債權人，利率將近零。

When global markets are optimistic and commodity demand increases, the AUD typically appreciates, which reflects a higher risk appetite among investors and the yen drops. The opposite holds true when they become risk-averse.

當全球市場樂觀且商品需求增加時，AUD通常會欣賞，這反映了投資者和日元下降的風險更高。當它們變得規避風險時，相反的情況就成立了。

Traders, therefore, monitor AUD/JPY as a risk indicator, with uptrends viewed as positive signs for risk assets like stocks, and vice versa. Bitcoin, which was already emerging in a comparable role, has seen its position strengthen. The correlation data shows that BTC is now as much a proxy for risk sentiment as AUD/JPY.

因此，交易者監視AUD/JPY作為風險指標，上升趨勢被視為股票等風險資產的積極跡象，反之亦然。比特幣已經出現在可比的角色中，已經看到了其位置的加強。相關數據表明，BTC現在與AUD/JPY一樣是風險情緒的代理。