随着宏观经济不确定性继续称重，比特币（BTC）保持压力

随着宏观经济不确定性继续对其价格行动进行权衡，比特币（BTC）仍处于压力。在4月7日和9日从本地底部进行了强烈反弹之后

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been struggling amid macroeconomic uncertainty, but analysts are spotting interesting signs that could indicate a reversal of the downward trend that started in 2023.

在宏观经济不确定性的情况下，比特币（BTC）的价格一直在挣扎，但是分析师正在发现有趣的迹象，这可能表明逆转了2023年开始的下降趋势。

After making a strong bounce from the local bottom on April 7 and 9, BTC price has been met with selling pressure again at the $83,000-$84,000 resistance. For some, like veteran trader Peter Brandt, this trendline is nothing but “hopium.”

在4月7日和9日从当地底部进行了强烈反弹之后，BTC的价格再次以83,000至84,000美元的电阻销售压力。对于某些人来说，像经验丰富的商人彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）一样，这种趋势线不过是“啤酒花”。

However, others, like analyst Kevin Svenson, see more reason for cautious optimism. In a recent X post, Svenson highlighted a possible breakout of the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI).

但是，其他人，例如分析师凯文·斯文森（Kevin Svenson），请看到更多谨慎乐观的理由。在最近的X帖子中，斯文森强调了每周相对强度指数（RSI）的可能突破。

According to Svenson, “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the MOST reliable macro breakout indicators. Timeframe matters!”

根据斯文森的说法，“一旦得到确认，每周的RSI突破信号已被证明是最可靠的宏突破指标之一。时间范围很重要！”

Ultimately, price is driven by supply and demand — and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout.

最终，价格是由供需驱动的 - 虽然等式的双方都开始显示出恢复的微妙迹象，但它们尚未达到适当突破所需的水平。

Moreover, bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal, as shown by CoinGlass’ liquidity heatmap.

此外，如Coinglass的流动性热图所示，公牛必须砍下约86,000美元的密集卖墙以确认逆转。

Bitcoin demand: Early signs of recovery?

比特币需求：恢复的早期迹象？

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand — measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows — is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory.

根据加密素养的说法，比特币的明显需求 - 通过交换流入和流出之间的30天净差异来衡量 - 在持续倾斜到负面的领土上恢复的早期迹象。

However, the analysts present a note of caution. They advise against prematurely declaring a trend reversal.

但是，分析师提出了谨慎的注意。他们建议不要过早宣布趋势逆转。

Looking back to the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred: demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery followed extended consolidation.

回顾2021周期的峰值，发生了类似的情况：几个月来需求保持较低或负数，价格暂时稳定或反弹，并且随后巩固了真正的结构回收。

This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure—not a definitive bottom sign. Time and further confirmation are still needed to fully assess a shifting momentum.

当前需求的这种提升可能只是在销售压力方面停下来，而不是确定的底部迹象。仍然需要时间和进一步的确认来充分评估转移的动力。

From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), according to CryptoQuant. This is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle.

从交易者的角度来看，明显的需求指标尚不乐观。据CryptoQuant称，比特币每日贸易量目前悬停在30,000 BTC（现货）和40万BTC（衍生品）中。与2019 - 2022年周期的最后一次公牛奔跑之前的2021年6月相比，这分别降低了6倍和3倍。

Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite despite the hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period.

尽管当前价格下跌至这段时期，但目前的数量动态表明，尽管当前的价格下跌与该时期有希望的比较，但目前的数量动态表明，交易者的胃口更加柔和。

Institutional investors, via their activity in BTC spot ETFs, also confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the ETFs have seen continuous outflows, totaling over $870 million by April 15.

机构投资者通过在BTC现货ETF中的活动来确认需求趋势低。自4月3日以来，ETF一直在持续流出，到4月15日，总计超过8.7亿美元。

However, despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — which signals that some investor interest in Bitcoin persists.

但是，尽管如此，交易量仍然相对较高（仅比30天平均水平低18％），这表明一些投资者对比特币的兴趣持续存在。

Bitcoin liquidity: Still weak

比特币流动性：仍然很虚弱

On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% previously). This signals a lack of new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode mentions, “remains well below typical bull market thresholds.”

在供应方面，流动性仍然很弱。根据GlassNode的最新报告，实现的CAP增长已减缓至每月0.80％（从先前0.83％）。这表明缺乏进入比特币网络的新资本，正如玻璃节所述，“远低于典型的牛市阈值”。

Furthermore, the BTC balance on exchanges — a metric often used to gauge the available sell-side liquidity — has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018. This aligns with the observations of crypto analysts.

此外，交流的BTC余额（通常用于评估可用卖方流动性）的度量已降至仅260万BTC，这是自2018年11月以来的最低水平。这与对加密分析师的观察一致。

Recently, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts, like Michael van de Poppe, see reasons for cautious hope. In a recent X post, the independent market analyst highlighted the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag (here 12 weeks), has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past.

最近，在更广泛的宏观经济水平上，一些分析师，例如Michael van de Poppe，请参阅谨慎的希望。在最近的X帖子中，这位独立的市场分析师强调了M2迅速上升的供应，该供应有一定的滞后（这里12周），过去经常影响比特币价格。

Another layer of insight is provided by Alphractal’s Alpha Price Chart, which combines realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.

Alphractal的Alpha价格图提供了另一层洞察力，该图表结合了已实现的上限，平均上限和骨缘情绪。根据图表，BTC必须果断地超过86,300美元，以恢复短期看涨情绪。如果价格再次减弱，支持水平为73,900美元和64,700美元。

Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. However, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity.

总体而言，在此阶段称趋势逆转可能为时过早。流动性仍然很薄，宏观经济的逆风仍然存在，投资者仍然谨慎。但是，比特币的弹性高于80,000美元的信号，从长期持有人那里得到了强有力的支持。超过86,300美元的突破可能会改变市场情绪，并且在最佳情况下，点燃了新的集会。但是，为了有意义的举动，它必须得到现货市场量的支持，而不仅仅是杠杆驱动的活动。