隨著宏觀經濟不確定性繼續稱重，比特幣（BTC）保持壓力

隨著宏觀經濟不確定性繼續對其價格行動進行權衡，比特幣（BTC）仍處於壓力。在4月7日和9日從本地底部進行了強烈反彈之後

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been struggling amid macroeconomic uncertainty, but analysts are spotting interesting signs that could indicate a reversal of the downward trend that started in 2023.

在宏觀經濟不確定性的情況下，比特幣（BTC）的價格一直在掙扎，但是分析師正在發現有趣的跡象，這可能表明逆轉了2023年開始的下降趨勢。

After making a strong bounce from the local bottom on April 7 and 9, BTC price has been met with selling pressure again at the $83,000-$84,000 resistance. For some, like veteran trader Peter Brandt, this trendline is nothing but “hopium.”

在4月7日和9日從當地底部進行了強烈反彈之後，BTC的價格再次以83,000至84,000美元的電阻銷售壓力。對於某些人來說，像經驗豐富的商人彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）一樣，這種趨勢線不過是“啤酒花”。

However, others, like analyst Kevin Svenson, see more reason for cautious optimism. In a recent X post, Svenson highlighted a possible breakout of the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI).

但是，其他人，例如分析師凱文·斯文森（Kevin Svenson），請看到更多謹慎樂觀的理由。在最近的X帖子中，斯文森強調了每週相對強度指數（RSI）的可能突破。

According to Svenson, “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the MOST reliable macro breakout indicators. Timeframe matters!”

根據斯文森的說法，“一旦得到確認，每週的RSI突破信號已被證明是最可靠的宏突破指標之一。時間範圍很重要！”

Ultimately, price is driven by supply and demand — and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout.

最終，價格是由供需驅動的 - 雖然等式的雙方都開始顯示出恢復的微妙跡象，但它們尚未達到適當突破所需的水平。

Moreover, bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal, as shown by CoinGlass’ liquidity heatmap.

此外，如Coinglass的流動性熱圖所示，公牛必須砍下約86,000美元的密集賣牆以確認逆轉。

Bitcoin demand: Early signs of recovery?

比特幣需求：恢復的早期跡象？

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand — measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows — is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory.

根據加密素養的說法，比特幣的明顯需求 - 通過交換流入和流出之間的30天淨差異來衡量 - 在持續傾斜到負面的領土上恢復的早期跡象。

However, the analysts present a note of caution. They advise against prematurely declaring a trend reversal.

但是，分析師提出了謹慎的注意。他們建議不要過早宣布趨勢逆轉。

Looking back to the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred: demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery followed extended consolidation.

回顧2021週期的峰值，發生了類似的情況：幾個月來需求保持較低或負數，價格暫時穩定或反彈，並且隨後鞏固了真正的結構回收。

This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure—not a definitive bottom sign. Time and further confirmation are still needed to fully assess a shifting momentum.

當前需求的這種提升可能只是在銷售壓力方面停下來，而不是確定的底部跡象。仍然需要時間和進一步的確認來充分評估轉移的動力。

From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), according to CryptoQuant. This is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle.

從交易者的角度來看，明顯的需求指標尚不樂觀。據CryptoQuant稱，比特幣每日貿易量目前懸停在30,000 BTC（現貨）和40萬BTC（衍生品）中。與2019 - 2022年周期的最後一次公牛奔跑之前的2021年6月相比，這分別降低了6倍和3倍。

Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite despite the hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period.

儘管當前價格下跌至這段時期，但目前的數量動態表明，儘管當前的價格下跌與該時期有希望的比較，但目前的數量動態表明，交易者的胃口更加柔和。

Institutional investors, via their activity in BTC spot ETFs, also confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the ETFs have seen continuous outflows, totaling over $870 million by April 15.

機構投資者通過在BTC現貨ETF中的活動來確認需求趨勢低。自4月3日以來，ETF一直在持續流出，到4月15日，總計超過8.7億美元。

However, despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — which signals that some investor interest in Bitcoin persists.

但是，儘管如此，交易量仍然相對較高（僅比30天平均水平低18％），這表明一些投資者對比特幣的興趣持續存在。

Bitcoin liquidity: Still weak

比特幣流動性：仍然很虛弱

On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% previously). This signals a lack of new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode mentions, “remains well below typical bull market thresholds.”

在供應方面，流動性仍然很弱。根據GlassNode的最新報告，實現的CAP增長已減緩至每月0.80％（從先前0.83％）。這表明缺乏進入比特幣網絡的新資本，正如玻璃節所述，“遠低於典型的牛市閾值”。

Furthermore, the BTC balance on exchanges — a metric often used to gauge the available sell-side liquidity — has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018. This aligns with the observations of crypto analysts.

此外，交流的BTC餘額（通常用於評估可用賣方流動性）的度量已降至僅260萬BTC，這是自2018年11月以來的最低水平。這與對加密分析師的觀察一致。

Recently, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts, like Michael van de Poppe, see reasons for cautious hope. In a recent X post, the independent market analyst highlighted the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag (here 12 weeks), has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past.

最近，在更廣泛的宏觀經濟水平上，一些分析師，例如Michael van de Poppe，請參閱謹慎的希望。在最近的X帖子中，這位獨立的市場分析師強調了M2迅速上升的供應，該供應有一定的滯後（這裡12週），過去經常影響比特幣價格。

Another layer of insight is provided by Alphractal’s Alpha Price Chart, which combines realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.

Alphractal的Alpha價格圖提供了另一層洞察力，該圖表結合了已實現的上限，平均上限和骨緣情緒。根據圖表，BTC必須果斷地超過86,300美元，以恢復短期看漲情緒。如果價格再次減弱，支持水平為73,900美元和64,700美元。

Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. However, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity.

總體而言，在此階段稱趨勢逆轉可能為時過早。流動性仍然很薄，宏觀經濟的逆風仍然存在，投資者仍然謹慎。但是，比特幣的彈性高於80,000美元的信號，從長期持有人那裡得到了強有力的支持。超過86,300美元的突破可能會改變市場情緒，並且在最佳情況下，點燃了新的集會。但是，為了有意義的舉動，它必須得到現貨市場量的支持，而不僅僅是槓桿驅動的活動。