Bitcoin (BTC) Remains Under Pressure as Macroeconomic Uncertainty Continues to Weigh

Bitcoin (BTC) remains under pressure as macroeconomic uncertainty continues to weigh on its price action. After making a strong bounce from the local bottom near $75,000 on April 7 and 9

Bitcoin (BTC) price has been struggling amid macroeconomic uncertainty, but analysts are spotting interesting signs that could indicate a reversal of the downward trend that started in 2023.

After making a strong bounce from the local bottom on April 7 and 9, BTC price has been met with selling pressure again at the $83,000-$84,000 resistance. For some, like veteran trader Peter Brandt, this trendline is nothing but “hopium.”

However, others, like analyst Kevin Svenson, see more reason for cautious optimism. In a recent X post, Svenson highlighted a possible breakout of the weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI).

According to Svenson, “Once confirmed, weekly RSI breakout signals have proven to be among the MOST reliable macro breakout indicators. Timeframe matters!”

Ultimately, price is driven by supply and demand — and while both sides of the equation are beginning to show subtle signs of recovery, they are yet to reach the levels needed for a proper breakout.

Moreover, bulls must cut through a dense sell wall near $86,000 to confirm the reversal, as shown by CoinGlass’ liquidity heatmap.

Bitcoin demand: Early signs of recovery?

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s apparent demand — measured by the 30-day net difference between exchange inflows and outflows — is showing early signs of recovery after a sustained dip into negative territory.

However, the analysts present a note of caution. They advise against prematurely declaring a trend reversal.

Looking back to the 2021 cycle peak, similar conditions occurred: demand remained low or negative for months, prices temporarily stabilized or rebounded, and true structural recovery followed extended consolidation.

This current uptick in demand may simply mark a pause in selling pressure—not a definitive bottom sign. Time and further confirmation are still needed to fully assess a shifting momentum.

From a trader’s perspective, the apparent demand metric does not look optimistic just yet. Bitcoin daily trade volumes currently hover around 30,000 BTC (spot) and 400,000 BTC (derivatives), according to CryptoQuant. This is, respectively, 6x and 3x less compared to the June-July 2021 period that preceded the last bull run of the 2019-2022 cycle.

Despite hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period, current volume dynamics suggest a more subdued trader appetite despite the hopeful comparisons of the current price dip to that period.

Institutional investors, via their activity in BTC spot ETFs, also confirm the low demand trend. Since April 3, the ETFs have seen continuous outflows, totaling over $870 million by April 15.

However, despite this, trading volumes remain relatively high — only 18% below the 30-day average — which signals that some investor interest in Bitcoin persists.

Bitcoin liquidity: Still weak

On the supply side, liquidity remains weak. According to Glassnode’s recent report, the realized cap growth has slowed to 0.80% per month (from 0.83% previously). This signals a lack of new capital entering the Bitcoin network and, as Glassnode mentions, “remains well below typical bull market thresholds.”

Furthermore, the BTC balance on exchanges — a metric often used to gauge the available sell-side liquidity — has dropped to just 2.6 million BTC, the lowest level since November 2018. This aligns with the observations of crypto analysts.

Recently, on a broader macroeconomic level, some analysts, like Michael van de Poppe, see reasons for cautious hope. In a recent X post, the independent market analyst highlighted the quickly rising M2 Supply, which, with a certain lag (here 12 weeks), has often influenced Bitcoin price in the past.

Another layer of insight is provided by Alphractal’s Alpha Price Chart, which combines realized cap, average cap, and onchain sentiment. According to the chart, BTC must decisively break above $86,300 to restore short-term bullish sentiment. If the price weakens again, support levels lie at $73,900 and $64,700.

Overall, calling a trend reversal at this stage may be premature. Liquidity remains thin, macroeconomic headwinds persist, and investors remain cautious. However, Bitcoin’s resilience above $80,000 signals strong support from long-term holders. A breakout above $86,300 could shift market sentiment—and, in a best-case scenario, ignite a new rally. For such a move to be meaningful, however, it must be backed by spot market volume, not just leverage-driven activity.