比特币（BTC）每天注册一个每日收盘价为78,989美元，是自2024年11月11日以来最低的关闭。

比特币在两周内第二次降至其关键的200天指数移动平均线（200-D EMA）以下，这表明图表中进一步的高时间（HTF）弱点。

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a daily and weekly close at $80,688 on March 9, the lowest close since November 11, 2024.

比特币（BTC）在3月9日的每日收盘价为80,688美元，这是自2024年11月11日以来最低的关闭。

Bitcoin also dropped below its key 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in two weeks, indicating further high time frame (HTF) weakness in the charts.

比特币在两周内第二次降至其关键的200天指数移动平均线（200-D EMA）以下，这表明图表中进一步的高时间（HTF）弱点。

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特币1天图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to show “extreme fear” on March 10, one BTC market simulation still highlights bullish projections for the latter half of 2025.

尽管加密恐惧和贪婪指数在3月10日继续显示出“极端恐惧”，但一个BTC市场模拟仍突出了2025年后半段的看涨预测。

Monte Carlo model signals an 800% BTC price rise

Monte Carlo模型信号为800％BTC价格上涨

Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, performed a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin's price, providing a six-month forecast for the crypto asset.

加密研究员马克·田（Mark Quant）进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以分析比特币的价格，为加密资产提供了六个月的预测。

The Monte Carlo model is a computational method using random sampling to simulate price projections and assess risk. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends.

蒙特卡洛模型是一种使用随机抽样来模拟价格预测并评估风险的计算方法。它可以基于可变因素（例如波动率和市场趋势）产生多种可能的方案。

Bitcoin Monte Carlo projections by Mark Quant. Source: X.com

BITCOIN MONTE CARLO预测通过Mark Quant。资料来源：X.com

Based on the initial price of $82,655, the study estimated a mean final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, on a broader scale, the price was expected to fluctuate between $51,430, i.e., a 5th percentile return and $713,000 at the 95th percentile.

根据最初的价格为82,655美元，该研究估计到2025年9月底，平均最终价格为258,445美元。但是，在更广泛的范围内，预计价格将在51,430美元之间波动，IE，第5％的回报率和713,000美元，在第95个百分位数中波动。

Related: Bitcoin slides another 3% — Is BTC price headed for $69K next?

相关：比特币又降低了3％ - BTC价格下一步以$ 69K的价格出价吗？

However, it is important to note that a Monte Carlo model relies strongly on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that the asset value follows a random path with a constant parameter drift.

但是，重要的是要注意，蒙特卡洛模型强烈依赖于几何布朗运动（GBM）模型，该模型假设资产值遵循具有恒定参数漂移的随机路径。

In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is built into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future shifts. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis remains as fitting as “rolling the dice."

在此分析中，比特币固有的波动率内置在模型中，捕获了长期的历史表现和模式，同时适应未来的转变。从本质上讲，蒙特卡洛分析仍然与“掷骰子”一样合适。

Last week, Quant also highlighted a correlation between the total crypto market cap and the global liquidity index, indicating that the TOTAL market cap value may reach new highs above $4 trillion in Q2 2025.

上周，Quant还强调了加密市值和全球流动性指数之间的相关性，这表明总市值可能达到2025年第2季度4万亿美元的新高价。

Bitcoin eyes new CME gap after $80K retest

比特币眼睛重新测试$ 80K后新的CME差距

Bitcoin price dropped 6.38% over the weekend, creating a fresh CME futures gap in the charts. The CME Bitcoin futures gap describes the price difference between the closing of CME Bitcoin futures trading on Friday and its reopening on Sunday evening.

周末比特币的价格下跌了6.38％，在图表中造成了新的CME期货差距。 CME比特币期货差距描述了周五CME比特币期货交易结束与周日晚上重新开放之间的价格差异。

Bitcoin CME gap. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特币CME差距。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, the CME gap currently lies between $83,000 and $86,000, a fairly large gap of $3,000. Based on past behavior, Bitcoin tends to “fill” or return into these gaps on the higher time frame charts, with the previous seven gaps filled out in the past four months.

如图所示，CME差距目前位于83,000至86,000美元之间，相当大的差距为3,000美元。根据过去的行为，比特币倾向于在较高的时间范围图表上“填充”或返回这些差距，而过去四个月中的七个差距填补了。

Mark Cullen, a technical analyst, also highlighted the CME gap, which took form over the weekend, and speculated the possibility of a short squeeze before the US markets open on March 10. However, the trader added,

技术分析师马克·卡伦（Mark Cullen）也强调了CME GAP，该差距在周末表现出来，并猜测在3月10日美国市场开放之前挤压了短暂的挤压。但是，这家交易员补充说，

Related: US dollar plunge powers Bitcoin bull case, but other metrics concern: analyst

相关：美元暴跌Bitcoin Bull案，但其他指标关注：分析师

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每个投资和交易举动都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应进行自己的研究。