比特幣（BTC）每天註冊一個每日收盤價為78,989美元，是自2024年11月11日以來最低的關閉。

比特幣在兩週內第二次降至其關鍵的200天指數移動平均線（200-D EMA）以下，這表明圖表中進一步的高時間（HTF）弱點。

Bitcoin (BTC) registered a daily and weekly close at $80,688 on March 9, the lowest close since November 11, 2024.

比特幣（BTC）在3月9日的每日收盤價為80,688美元，這是自2024年11月11日以來最低的關閉。

Bitcoin also dropped below its key 200-day exponential moving average (200-D EMA) for the second time in two weeks, indicating further high time frame (HTF) weakness in the charts.

比特幣在兩週內第二次降至其關鍵的200天指數移動平均線（200-D EMA）以下，這表明圖表中進一步的高時間（HTF）弱點。

Bitcoin 1-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特幣1天圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

While the Crypto Fear & Greed Index continues to show “extreme fear” on March 10, one BTC market simulation still highlights bullish projections for the latter half of 2025.

儘管加密恐懼和貪婪指數在3月10日繼續顯示出“極端恐懼”，但一個BTC市場模擬仍突出了2025年後半段的看漲預測。

Monte Carlo model signals an 800% BTC price rise

Monte Carlo模型信號為800％BTC價格上漲

Mark Quant, a crypto researcher, performed a Monte Carlo simulation to analyze Bitcoin's price, providing a six-month forecast for the crypto asset.

加密研究員馬克·田（Mark Quant）進行了蒙特卡洛模擬，以分析比特幣的價格，為加密資產提供了六個月的預測。

The Monte Carlo model is a computational method using random sampling to simulate price projections and assess risk. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variable factors such as volatility and market trends.

蒙特卡洛模型是一種使用隨機抽樣來模擬價格預測並評估風險的計算方法。它可以基於可變因素（例如波動率和市場趨勢）產生多種可能的方案。

Bitcoin Monte Carlo projections by Mark Quant. Source: X.com

BITCOIN MONTE CARLO預測通過Mark Quant。資料來源：X.com

Based on the initial price of $82,655, the study estimated a mean final price of $258,445 by the end of September 2025. However, on a broader scale, the price was expected to fluctuate between $51,430, i.e., a 5th percentile return and $713,000 at the 95th percentile.

根據最初的價格為82,655美元，該研究估計到2025年9月底，平均最終價格為258,445美元。但是，在更廣泛的範圍內，預計價格將在51,430美元之間波動，IE，第5％的回報率和713,000美元，在第95個百分位數中波動。

Related: Bitcoin slides another 3% — Is BTC price headed for $69K next?

相關：比特幣又降低了3％ - BTC價格下一步以$ 69K的價格出價嗎？

However, it is important to note that a Monte Carlo model relies strongly on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that the asset value follows a random path with a constant parameter drift.

但是，重要的是要注意，蒙特卡洛模型強烈依賴於幾何布朗運動（GBM）模型，該模型假設資產值遵循具有恆定參數漂移的隨機路徑。

In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is built into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future shifts. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis remains as fitting as “rolling the dice."

在此分析中，比特幣固有的波動率內置在模型中，捕獲了長期的歷史表現和模式，同時適應未來的轉變。從本質上講，蒙特卡洛分析仍然與“擲骰子”一樣合適。

Last week, Quant also highlighted a correlation between the total crypto market cap and the global liquidity index, indicating that the TOTAL market cap value may reach new highs above $4 trillion in Q2 2025.

上週，Quant還強調了加密市值和全球流動性指數之間的相關性，這表明總市值可能達到2025年第2季度4萬億美元的新高價。

Bitcoin eyes new CME gap after $80K retest

比特幣眼睛重新測試$ 80K後新的CME差距

Bitcoin price dropped 6.38% over the weekend, creating a fresh CME futures gap in the charts. The CME Bitcoin futures gap describes the price difference between the closing of CME Bitcoin futures trading on Friday and its reopening on Sunday evening.

週末比特幣的價格下跌了6.38％，在圖表中造成了新的CME期貨差距。 CME比特幣期貨差距描述了周五CME比特幣期貨交易結束與週日晚上重新開放之間的價格差異。

Bitcoin CME gap. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特幣CME差距。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

As illustrated in the chart, the CME gap currently lies between $83,000 and $86,000, a fairly large gap of $3,000. Based on past behavior, Bitcoin tends to “fill” or return into these gaps on the higher time frame charts, with the previous seven gaps filled out in the past four months.

如圖所示，CME差距目前位於83,000至86,000美元之間，相當大的差距為3,000美元。根據過去的行為，比特幣傾向於在較高的時間範圍圖表上“填充”或返回這些差距，而過去四個月來填補了前7個差距。

Mark Cullen, a technical analyst, also highlighted the CME gap, which took form over the weekend, and speculated the possibility of a short squeeze before the US markets open on March 10. However, the trader added,

技術分析師馬克·卡倫（Mark Cullen）也強調了CME GAP，該差距在周末表現出來，並猜測在3月10日美國市場開放之前擠壓了短暫的擠壓。但是，這家交易員補充說，

Related: US dollar plunge powers Bitcoin bull case, but other metrics concern: analyst

相關：美元暴跌Bitcoin Bull案，但其他指標關注：分析師

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每個投資和交易舉動都涉及風險，讀者在做出決定時應進行自己的研究。