比特币（BTC）集会希望与潜在衰退有关

10倍研究的马克斯·泰伦（Markus Thielen）警告说，比特币与潜在衰退相关的集会可能会在短期内被夸大。

Bitcoin’s rally hopes tied to a potential recession may be overblown in the short term, at least according to 10x Research’s Markus Thielen.

至少根据10倍研究的马克斯·蒂伦（Markus Thielen）的说法，比特币与潜在衰退相关的集会希望可能在短期内被夸大。

In a new market report dated April 11, the head of research explained why Bitcoin’s macro setup might not be as bullish as many investors expect, despite recent signs of monetary easing on the horizon.

在4月11日的一份新市场报告中，研究负责人解释了为什么比特币的宏观设置可能不像许多投资者所期望的那样看涨，尽管最近有货币宽松的迹象。

Credit spreads continue to widen, a strong indicator that recessionary fears are intensifying across the U.S. economy. While this could benefit Bitcoin long-term with lower interest rates and central bank easing, short-term headwinds remain in play.

信贷差异继续扩大，这是一个有力的指标表明，经济衰退的恐惧正在加剧整个美国经济。尽管这可以通过较低的利率和中央银行的缓解长期使比特币受益，但短期逆风仍在起作用。

Bitcoin Faces Macro Headwinds Despite Rate Cut Hopes

尽管率降低了希望

Historically, Bitcoin has responded poorly to initial rate cuts or currency devaluations, with the asset’s price often selling off before regaining strength. This is because the first rate cuts signal economic weakness rather than opportunity.

从历史上看，比特币对最初的削减税率或货币贬值的反应较差，资产的价格在恢复实力之前经常出售。这是因为一流削减了经济弱点，而不是机会。

“Normally, Bitcoin first sells off when China devalues or the Fed cuts, as the first cut might not be so impactful. It also confirms economic weakness,” said Thielen.

Thielen说：“通常，当中国贬值或美联储削减时，比特币首先卖出，因为第一次削减可能没有那么影响。这也证实了经济疲软。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $80,620, down from its recent all-time high above $73,000 in March.

在撰写本文时，比特币（BTC）的交易价格约为80,620美元，低于3月份的73,000美元以上的历史高处。

While some analysts continue to promote the Bitcoin recession narrative as a bullish setup, others suggest that the current macro signals, particularly rising credit spreads, indicate more downside risk ahead.

尽管一些分析师继续将比特币衰退的叙述作为看涨的设置，但其他分析师则认为当前的宏观信号，尤其是信用额的差异，表明未来的下行风险更大。

Credit Spreads Widen as Traders Eye May Fed Decision

信用差点扩大，因为交易者可能会做出决定

Credit spreads — the gap between yields on corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries — are a key indicator of economic health. According to Thielen, rising spreads suggest growing stress in credit markets, which historically precedes a downturn in BTC macro forecasts.

信贷差异 - 公司债券和美国国债的收益率之间的差距 - 是经济健康的关键指标。蒂伦（Thielen）的说法，不断增长的差异表明，信贷市场的压力日益增加，这在历史上是BTC宏观预测的低迷之前。

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 100.337, down nearly 3% over the past week. While a weaker dollar usually benefits risk assets like Bitcoin, traders remain cautious.

同时，美元指数（DXY）的位置为100.337，在过去一周中下降了近3％。虽然较弱的美元通常受益于比特币这样的风险资产，但交易者仍然谨慎。

“The US dollar has exited the room. Once again, something is broken,” posted The Kobeissi Letter on X, reflecting market uncertainty.

“美元已经退出了房间。再一次，有些东西破裂了，” X上的Kobeissi信中说，反映了市场不确定性。

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there’s a 64.8% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its May meeting — highlighting continued division among market participants over the future path of monetary policy.

根据CME的FedWatch工具，美国美联储在5月会议上不会降低利率64.8％的机会 - 强调了市场参与者在未来的货币政策道路上的持续分裂。

Long-Term BTC Outlook Still Positive in Recessionary Scenario

长期BTC Outlook在经济衰退方案中仍然很积极

Despite short-term volatility, analysts like BlackRock’s head of digital assets Robbie Mitchnick maintain a positive long-term outlook.

尽管短期波动，但像贝莱德（BlackRock）的数字资产负责人罗比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）保持着积极的长期前景。

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said in late March.

米奇尼克在3月下旬说：“我不知道我们是否会衰退，但经济衰退将是比特币的大催化剂。”

This perspective aligns with the typical behavior of crypto markets during periods of central bank easing.

这种观点与中央银行轻松时期的加密市场的典型行为保持一致。

As the Fed eventually cuts rates more aggressively, Bitcoin and other digital assets could benefit from increased liquidity and renewed investor appetite for alternative stores of value.

随着美联储最终更加积极地降低利率，比特币和其他数字资产可能会受益于增加的流动性，并更新了投资者对替代价值存储的需求。

Still, 10x Research’s view remains cautious in the short term.

尽管如此，在短期内，10倍研究的观点仍然谨慎。

As Thielen summarizes, “This pattern suggests that while a longer-term opportunity may emerge, Bitcoin could still face pressure in the near term.”

正如蒂伦（Thielen）总结的那样，“这种模式表明，尽管可能会出现长期机会，但比特币仍可能在短期内面临压力。”