比特幣（BTC）集會希望與潛在衰退有關

10倍研究的馬克斯·泰倫（Markus Thielen）警告說，比特幣與潛在衰退相關的集會可能會在短期內被誇大。

Bitcoin’s rally hopes tied to a potential recession may be overblown in the short term, at least according to 10x Research’s Markus Thielen.

至少根據10倍研究的馬克斯·蒂倫（Markus Thielen）的說法，比特幣與潛在衰退相關的集會希望可能在短期內被誇大。

In a new market report dated April 11, the head of research explained why Bitcoin’s macro setup might not be as bullish as many investors expect, despite recent signs of monetary easing on the horizon.

在4月11日的一份新市場報告中，研究負責人解釋了為什麼比特幣的宏觀設置可能不像許多投資者所期望的那樣看漲，儘管最近有貨幣寬鬆的跡象。

Credit spreads continue to widen, a strong indicator that recessionary fears are intensifying across the U.S. economy. While this could benefit Bitcoin long-term with lower interest rates and central bank easing, short-term headwinds remain in play.

信貸差異繼續擴大，這是一個有力的指標表明，經濟衰退的恐懼正在加劇整個美國經濟。儘管這可以通過較低的利率和中央銀行的緩解長期使比特幣受益，但短期逆風仍在起作用。

Bitcoin Faces Macro Headwinds Despite Rate Cut Hopes

儘管率降低了希望

Historically, Bitcoin has responded poorly to initial rate cuts or currency devaluations, with the asset’s price often selling off before regaining strength. This is because the first rate cuts signal economic weakness rather than opportunity.

從歷史上看，比特幣對最初的削減稅率或貨幣貶值的反應較差，資產的價格在恢復實力之前經常出售。這是因為一流削減了經濟弱點，而不是機會。

“Normally, Bitcoin first sells off when China devalues or the Fed cuts, as the first cut might not be so impactful. It also confirms economic weakness,” said Thielen.

Thielen說：“通常，當中國貶值或美聯儲削減時，比特幣首先賣出，因為第一次削減可能沒有那麼影響。這也證實了經濟疲軟。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $80,620, down from its recent all-time high above $73,000 in March.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣（BTC）的交易價格約為80,620美元，低於3月份的73,000美元以上的歷史高處。

While some analysts continue to promote the Bitcoin recession narrative as a bullish setup, others suggest that the current macro signals, particularly rising credit spreads, indicate more downside risk ahead.

儘管一些分析師繼續將比特幣衰退的敘述作為看漲的設置，但其他分析師則認為當前的宏觀信號，尤其是信用額的差異，表明未來的下行風險更大。

Credit Spreads Widen as Traders Eye May Fed Decision

信用差點擴大，因為交易者可能會做出決定

Credit spreads — the gap between yields on corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries — are a key indicator of economic health. According to Thielen, rising spreads suggest growing stress in credit markets, which historically precedes a downturn in BTC macro forecasts.

信貸差異 - 公司債券和美國國債的收益率之間的差距 - 是經濟健康的關鍵指標。蒂倫（Thielen）的說法，不斷增長的差異表明，信貸市場的壓力日益增加，這在歷史上是BTC宏觀預測的低迷之前。

Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) sits at 100.337, down nearly 3% over the past week. While a weaker dollar usually benefits risk assets like Bitcoin, traders remain cautious.

同時，美元指數（DXY）的位置為100.337，在過去一周中下降了近3％。雖然較弱的美元通常受益於比特幣這樣的風險資產，但交易者仍然謹慎。

“The US dollar has exited the room. Once again, something is broken,” posted The Kobeissi Letter on X, reflecting market uncertainty.

“美元已經退出了房間。再一次，有些東西破裂了，” X上的Kobeissi信中說，反映了市場不確定性。

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, there’s a 64.8% chance that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at its May meeting — highlighting continued division among market participants over the future path of monetary policy.

根據CME的FedWatch工具，美國美聯儲在5月會議上不會降低利率64.8％的機會 - 強調了市場參與者在未來的貨幣政策道路上的持續分裂。

Long-Term BTC Outlook Still Positive in Recessionary Scenario

長期BTC Outlook在經濟衰退方案中仍然很積極

Despite short-term volatility, analysts like BlackRock’s head of digital assets Robbie Mitchnick maintain a positive long-term outlook.

儘管短期波動，但像貝萊德（BlackRock）的數字資產負責人羅比·米奇尼克（Robbie Mitchnick）保持著積極的長期前景。

“I don’t know if we’ll have a recession or not, but a recession would be a big catalyst for Bitcoin,” Mitchnick said in late March.

米奇尼克在3月下旬說：“我不知道我們是否會衰退，但經濟衰退將是比特幣的大催化劑。”

This perspective aligns with the typical behavior of crypto markets during periods of central bank easing.

這種觀點與中央銀行輕鬆時期的加密市場的典型行為保持一致。

As the Fed eventually cuts rates more aggressively, Bitcoin and other digital assets could benefit from increased liquidity and renewed investor appetite for alternative stores of value.

隨著美聯儲最終更加積極地降低利率，比特幣和其他數字資產可能會受益於增加的流動性，並更新了投資者對替代價值存儲的需求。

Still, 10x Research’s view remains cautious in the short term.

儘管如此，在短期內，10倍研究的觀點仍然謹慎。

As Thielen summarizes, “This pattern suggests that while a longer-term opportunity may emerge, Bitcoin could still face pressure in the near term.”

正如蒂倫（Thielen）總結的那樣，“這種模式表明，儘管可能會出現長期機會，但比特幣仍可能在短期內面臨壓力。”