尽管比特币（BTC）价格恢复，期货市场仍然悲观

从四月低点开始的比特币价格的回收与期货市场的持续令人沮丧的期望形成鲜明对比，因此揭示了令人担忧的分离。

In the wake of April's turbulent lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a surprising recovery, diverging sharply from the consistently gloomy expectations in the futures market, thus exposing a worrying separation.

在四月动荡的低点之后，比特币（BTC）上演了令人惊讶的恢复，与期货市场上一贯的灰色期望急剧不同，从而表现出令人担忧的分离。

Despite BTC’s rebound from tariff-induced losses, futures traders remain pessimistic, a warning sign that usually precedes long consolidation or pullbacks. This discrepancy implies institutional participants are diligently hedging against macroeconomic hazards rather than wholeheartedly welcoming the cryptocurrency’s rally.

尽管BTC从关税引起的损失中反弹，但期货交易者仍然悲观，这是一个通常先于长期合并或撤退之前的警告信号。这种差异意味着机构参与者正在努力应对宏观经济危害，而不是全心全意欢迎加密货币的集会。

Given that Trump’s trade policies are still looming in the background, will spot prices ultimately adjust to match future sentiment downward, or is this a case of astute money losing out on a significant upside potential?

鉴于特朗普的贸易政策仍在背景中迫在眉睫，因此最终将价格调整以使未来的情绪下降，还是这是瞬息万变的金钱损失的巨大上升潜力？

Spot Optimism Clashes with Futures Market Doubt

现场乐观与未来市场怀疑发生冲突

现场乐观与未来市场怀疑发生冲突

Even as Bitcoin’s price attempts to stage a comeback from April’s bleak lows, a closer look at the Bitcoin futures market reveals an interesting divergence, hinting at an underlying fragility in the cryptocurrency’s recovery.

即使比特币的价格试图从四月的荒凉低点卷土重来，对比特币期货市场的仔细研究也表明了一个有趣的分歧，暗示了加密货币恢复的基本脆弱性。

As Old Trader

作为老交易者

notes, a persistent pessimism in the futures market contrasts sharply with the optimism seen in the spot market, a phenomena that in the past has usually led to market breakdowns.

指出，期货市场上的持续悲观与在现货市场上的乐观态度形成鲜明对比，这种现象通常导致市场崩溃。

"The discrepancy between the pessimism in the futures market and the optimism in the spot market is interesting. Usually, when there is a clear divergence of this nature, it leads to a violent correction where the two markets converge.

“期货市场上的悲观情绪与现货市场的乐观情绪之间的差异很有趣。通常，当这种性质存在明显的差异时，这会导致两个市场汇聚的暴力校正。

Technical support levels are less relevant here. Instead, traders are pricing in the political and economic headwinds that could cause a liquidity crisis. Despite on-chain data suggesting that long-term holders are accumulating, this pessimism persists even as the narrative on-chain suggests otherwise."

技术支持水平在这里不太重要。取而代之的是，贸易商正在以可能导致流动性危机的政治和经济逆风中定价。尽管链上的数据表明长期持有人正在积累，但这种悲观主义仍然存在，即使叙事的链链暗示了另外。”

As institutional participants use Bitcoin futures markets as a barometer for risk assessment, Trump’s tariff programs still weigh heavily on the market’s collective mind. Futures sentiment closely reflects the hedging methods and high leverage used by professional traders, who are focused on capital preservation over short-term gains.

由于机构参与者将比特币期货市场用作风险评估的晴雨表，特朗普的关税计划仍然对市场的集体思维感到巨大。期货情绪密切反映了专业贸易商使用的对冲方法和高杠杆作用，他们专注于在短期收益上保存资本。

This stands in stark contrast to the retail-investor-driven narrative that pushes for new all-time highs in the spot market.

这与零售业驱动的叙事形成鲜明对比，后者推动了现货市场上新的历史最高点。

The implication of this impasse between the strength in the spot market and the skepticism in derivatives could be a prolonged period of stagnation until macroeconomic certainty emerges, be it through a reversal of tariffs or adjustments in the Fed’s policy, thus restricting Bitcoin’s upside potential despite being technically oversold.

这种僵局在现货市场的强度与衍生物中的怀疑主义之间的影响可能是长时间的停滞时期，直到出现宏观经济确定性，无论是通过对美联储政策的关税或调整的逆转而限制了比特币在技术上限制了比特币的潜力。