儘管比特幣（BTC）價格恢復，期貨市場仍然悲觀

從四月低點開始的比特幣價格的回收與期貨市場的持續令人沮喪的期望形成鮮明對比，因此揭示了令人擔憂的分離。

In the wake of April's turbulent lows, Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a surprising recovery, diverging sharply from the consistently gloomy expectations in the futures market, thus exposing a worrying separation.

在四月動蕩的低點之後，比特幣（BTC）上演了令人驚訝的恢復，與期貨市場上一貫的灰色期望急劇不同，從而表現出令人擔憂的分離。

Despite BTC’s rebound from tariff-induced losses, futures traders remain pessimistic, a warning sign that usually precedes long consolidation or pullbacks. This discrepancy implies institutional participants are diligently hedging against macroeconomic hazards rather than wholeheartedly welcoming the cryptocurrency’s rally.

儘管BTC從關稅引起的損失中反彈，但期貨交易者仍然悲觀，這是一個通常先於長期合併或撤退之前的警告信號。這種差異意味著機構參與者正在努力應對宏觀經濟危害，而不是全心全意歡迎加密貨幣的集會。

Given that Trump’s trade policies are still looming in the background, will spot prices ultimately adjust to match future sentiment downward, or is this a case of astute money losing out on a significant upside potential?

鑑於特朗普的貿易政策仍在背景中迫在眉睫，因此最終將價格調整以使未來的情緒下降，還是這是瞬息萬變的金錢損失的巨大上升潛力？

Spot Optimism Clashes with Futures Market Doubt

現場樂觀與未來市場懷疑發生衝突

現場樂觀與未來市場懷疑發生衝突

Even as Bitcoin’s price attempts to stage a comeback from April’s bleak lows, a closer look at the Bitcoin futures market reveals an interesting divergence, hinting at an underlying fragility in the cryptocurrency’s recovery.

即使比特幣的價格試圖從四月的荒涼低點捲土重來，對比特幣期貨市場的仔細研究也表明了一個有趣的分歧，暗示了加密貨幣恢復的基本脆弱性。

As Old Trader

作為老交易者

notes, a persistent pessimism in the futures market contrasts sharply with the optimism seen in the spot market, a phenomena that in the past has usually led to market breakdowns.

指出，期貨市場上的持續悲觀與在現貨市場上的樂觀態度形成鮮明對比，這種現象通常導致市場崩潰。

"The discrepancy between the pessimism in the futures market and the optimism in the spot market is interesting. Usually, when there is a clear divergence of this nature, it leads to a violent correction where the two markets converge.

“期貨市場上的悲觀情緒與現貨市場的樂觀情緒之間的差異很有趣。通常，當這種性質存在明顯的差異時，這會導致兩個市場匯聚的暴力校正。

Technical support levels are less relevant here. Instead, traders are pricing in the political and economic headwinds that could cause a liquidity crisis. Despite on-chain data suggesting that long-term holders are accumulating, this pessimism persists even as the narrative on-chain suggests otherwise."

技術支持水平在這裡不太重要。取而代之的是，貿易商正在以可能導致流動性危機的政治和經濟逆風中定價。儘管鏈上的數據表明長期持有人正在積累，但這種悲觀主義仍然存在，即使敘事的鍊鍊暗示了另外。 ”

As institutional participants use Bitcoin futures markets as a barometer for risk assessment, Trump’s tariff programs still weigh heavily on the market’s collective mind. Futures sentiment closely reflects the hedging methods and high leverage used by professional traders, who are focused on capital preservation over short-term gains.

隨著機構參與者將比特幣期貨市場作為風險評估的晴雨表，特朗普的關稅計劃仍然對市場的集體思想產生了很大的影響。期貨情緒密切反映了專業貿易商使用的對沖方法和高槓桿作用，他們專注於在短期收益上保存資本。

This stands in stark contrast to the retail-investor-driven narrative that pushes for new all-time highs in the spot market.

這與零售業驅動的敘事形成鮮明對比，後者推動了現貨市場上新的歷史最高點。

The implication of this impasse between the strength in the spot market and the skepticism in derivatives could be a prolonged period of stagnation until macroeconomic certainty emerges, be it through a reversal of tariffs or adjustments in the Fed’s policy, thus restricting Bitcoin’s upside potential despite being technically oversold.

這種僵局在現貨市場的強度與衍生物中的懷疑主義之間的影響可能是長時間的停滯時期，直到出現宏觀經濟確定性，無論是通過對美聯儲政策的關稅或調整的逆轉而限制了比特幣在技術上限制了比特幣的潛力。