比特币（BTC）价格未能打破88,000美元的电阻，减少了90,000美元重新测试的机会

自3月24日的每周高点至88,752美元以来，比特币（BTC）的价格在1小时的时间范围图中形成了一系列较低的高点和较低的低点。

Bitcoin price has encountered resistance at the $88,000 level as it flushes out the remaining short-term holders (STHs) and continues to form lower highs and lower lows in the 1-hour time frame chart.

比特币的价格在88,000美元的水平上遇到了阻力，因为它冲出了剩余的短期持有人（STH），并在1小时的时间范围图中继续形成较低的高点和较低的低点。

After reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24, BTC price has failed to break above the $88,000 resistance.

在3月24日达到每周的88,752美元的高点之后，BTC的价格未能超过88,000美元的电阻。

Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特币1小时图表。资料来源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

As the end of the week approaches, the chance for a $90,000 retest before the end of Q1 appears slim.

随着本周末的临近，在Q1结束之前进行90,000美元重新测试的机会显得苗条。

What is keeping Bitcoin under $90K?

是什么让比特币低于$ 90k？

One major factor hindering Bitcoin’s price recovery is the persistent sell-side pressure from STHs or investors holding coins for less than 155 days.

阻碍比特币的价格恢复的一个主要因素是STHS或投资者持有硬币的持续卖方压力不到155天。

As highlighted in Glassnode's “The Week On-chain” newsletter, the current Bitcoin cycle has seen a “top heavy” market where investors who purchased BTC at higher prices hold a larger portion of the cryptocurrency's supply.

正如GlassNode的“一周链”新闻通讯所强调的那样，当前的比特币周期已经看到了一个“顶级”市场，以较高价格购买BTC的投资者占加密货币供应的较大部分。

Consequently, the STH cohort is primary group facing the largest price drawdown from the 30% correction in Bitcoin price from its all-time high.

因此，STH队列是主要的小组，面临来自比特币价格的30％更正的最大价格降低。

In the report, Glassnode analysts said,

GlassNode分析师在报告中说，

“The Bitcoin price correction encountered significant resistance at the $93,000-$97,000 range, leading to a 30% decline from the all-time high. Despite this substantial downturn, the short-term holders (STHs) are the only cohort in profit, with 2.5% of the total supply moving in profit during the correction.”

“比特币的价格校正在93,000美元至97,000美元之间遇到了显着的阻力，从历史上的高度下降了30％。尽管经历了大幅度的下滑，但短期持有人（STHS）是唯一的利润人群，在校正期间，利润的2.5％，总供应量的2.5％。”

Bitcoin total supply in loss held by STHs. Source: Glassnode

STH持有的比特币总损失供应。来源：玻璃节

The selling pressure faced by the short-term holders is also reflected in Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score.

短期持有人面临的销售压力也反映在比特币的累积趋势评分中。

Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score, a metric that quantifies selling pressure, remained below 0.1 since BTC price dropped from $108,000 to the $93,000-$97,000 range. A score under 0.5 signals distribution (selling) instead of accumulation, and a sub-0.1 value highlights intense selling pressure.

比特币的累积趋势得分是量化销售压力的指标，由于BTC价格从108,000美元下降到93,000美元至97,000美元的范围，因此保持低于0.1。低于0.5的信号分布（销售）而不是累积的分数，低于0.1的价值突出了强烈的销售压力。

Another factor limiting Bitcoin's ability to pierce through the $90,000 threshold is the contraction of liquidity conditions.

限制比特币刺穿90,000美元门槛的另一个因素是流动性条件的收缩。

Onchain transfer volumes have dropped to $5.2 billion daily, a steep 47% decline from the peak during the rally to all-time highs, while the active address count has also decreased by 18%, dropping from 950,000 in November 2024 to 780,000.

OnChain转移量已经下降到每天52亿美元，从集会期间的峰值下降到有史以来高点47％，而主动地址数量也下降了18％，从2024年11月的950,000下降到780,000。

At the same time, the open interest (OI) in the BTC futures market dropped 24% from $71.85 billion to $54.65 billion, with the perpetual futures funding rates also cooling down.

同时，BTC期货市场的开放利息（OI）从718.5亿美元下降至546.5亿美元，永久期货融资利率也在降低。

This deleveraging and liquidity contraction—combined with only 2.5% of the total supply moving in profit during the correction—limits the market’s capacity to rally past $90k since there are insufficient buy orders to absorb sell orders.

这种去杠杆化和流动性收缩（仅占校正期间总供应量的2.5％）限制了市场的能力超过$ 90K，因为没有足够的买入订单来吸收卖出订单。

Related: Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won't go higher than $138K in 2025

相关：比特币价格预测市场Bet BTC在2025年不超过138K

New demand for Bitcoin continues to fall

对比特币的新需求继续下降

Glassnode data also highlighted that the current BTC bull cycle lacks new demand (buyers) entering the market, with the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap showing supply concentration at higher price levels ($100K-$108K) but no significant influx of buyers at lower levels to drive a price recovery.

玻璃节数据还强调，当前的BTC公牛周期缺乏进入市场的新需求（买家），成本基础分布（CBD）热图显示，价格较高的供应集中度（$ 100k- $ 108K），但在较低水平上，没有大量大量的买家涌入以驱动价格回收。

Bitcoin Euphoria Zone, Top Buyer Cost Basis. Source: Glassnode

比特币欣快感区，最高买家的成本基础。来源：玻璃节

The lack of demand factor is compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty, which has discouraged new investors, as seen in the transition to net capital outflows when the 1-week to 1-month STH cost basis fell below the 1-month to 3-month cost basis.

宏观经济不确定性缺乏需求因素，这种不确定性使新的投资者劝阻新的投资者，这在过渡到净资本的过渡中可以看到1周到1个月的STH成本基础低于1个月至3个月的成本基础。

However, Glassnode analysts said,

但是，玻璃节分析师说，

“Essentially, these periods of prolonged accumulation can eventually constrict the

“本质上，这些长时间积累时期最终可以限制