比特幣（BTC）價格未能打破88,000美元的電阻，減少了90,000美元重新測試的機會

自3月24日的每周高點至88,752美元以來，比特幣（BTC）的價格在1小時的時間範圍圖中形成了一系列較低的高點和較低的低點。

Bitcoin price has encountered resistance at the $88,000 level as it flushes out the remaining short-term holders (STHs) and continues to form lower highs and lower lows in the 1-hour time frame chart.

比特幣的價格在88,000美元的水平上遇到了阻力，因為它衝出了剩餘的短期持有人（STH），並在1小時的時間範圍圖中繼續形成較低的高點和較低的低點。

After reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24, BTC price has failed to break above the $88,000 resistance.

在3月24日達到每週的88,752美元的高點之後，BTC的價格未能超過88,000美元的電阻。

Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

比特幣1小時圖表。資料來源：Cointelegraph/TradingView

As the end of the week approaches, the chance for a $90,000 retest before the end of Q1 appears slim.

隨著本週末的臨近，在Q1結束之前進行90,000美元重新測試的機會顯得苗條。

What is keeping Bitcoin under $90K?

是什麼讓比特幣低於$ 90k？

One major factor hindering Bitcoin’s price recovery is the persistent sell-side pressure from STHs or investors holding coins for less than 155 days.

阻礙比特幣的價格恢復的一個主要因素是STHS或投資者持有硬幣的持續賣方壓力不到155天。

As highlighted in Glassnode's “The Week On-chain” newsletter, the current Bitcoin cycle has seen a “top heavy” market where investors who purchased BTC at higher prices hold a larger portion of the cryptocurrency's supply.

正如GlassNode的“一周鏈”新聞通訊所強調的那樣，當前的比特幣週期已經看到了一個“頂級”市場，以較高價格購買BTC的投資者佔加密貨幣供應的較大部分。

Consequently, the STH cohort is primary group facing the largest price drawdown from the 30% correction in Bitcoin price from its all-time high.

因此，STH隊列是主要的小組，面臨來自比特幣價格的30％更正的最大價格降低。

In the report, Glassnode analysts said,

GlassNode分析師在報告中說，

“The Bitcoin price correction encountered significant resistance at the $93,000-$97,000 range, leading to a 30% decline from the all-time high. Despite this substantial downturn, the short-term holders (STHs) are the only cohort in profit, with 2.5% of the total supply moving in profit during the correction.”

“比特幣的價格校正在93,000美元至97,000美元之間遇到了顯著的阻力，從歷史上的高度下降了30％。儘管經歷了大幅度的下滑，但短期持有人（STHS）是唯一的利潤人群，在校正期間，利潤的2.5％，總供應量的2.5％。”

Bitcoin total supply in loss held by STHs. Source: Glassnode

STH持有的比特幣總損失供應。來源：玻璃節

The selling pressure faced by the short-term holders is also reflected in Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score.

短期持有人面臨的銷售壓力也反映在比特幣的累積趨勢評分中。

Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score, a metric that quantifies selling pressure, remained below 0.1 since BTC price dropped from $108,000 to the $93,000-$97,000 range. A score under 0.5 signals distribution (selling) instead of accumulation, and a sub-0.1 value highlights intense selling pressure.

比特幣的累積趨勢得分是量化銷售壓力的指標，由於BTC價格從108,000美元下降到93,000美元至97,000美元的範圍，因此保持低於0.1。低於0.5的信號分佈（銷售）而不是累積的分數，低於0.1的價值突出了強烈的銷售壓力。

Another factor limiting Bitcoin's ability to pierce through the $90,000 threshold is the contraction of liquidity conditions.

限制比特幣刺穿90,000美元門檻的另一個因素是流動性條件的收縮。

Onchain transfer volumes have dropped to $5.2 billion daily, a steep 47% decline from the peak during the rally to all-time highs, while the active address count has also decreased by 18%, dropping from 950,000 in November 2024 to 780,000.

OnChain轉移量已經下降到每天52億美元，從集會期間的峰值下降到有史以來高點47％，而主動地址數量也下降了18％，從2024年11月的950,000下降到780,000。

At the same time, the open interest (OI) in the BTC futures market dropped 24% from $71.85 billion to $54.65 billion, with the perpetual futures funding rates also cooling down.

同時，BTC期貨市場的開放利息（OI）從718.5億美元下降至546.5億美元，永久期貨融資利率也在降低。

This deleveraging and liquidity contraction—combined with only 2.5% of the total supply moving in profit during the correction—limits the market’s capacity to rally past $90k since there are insufficient buy orders to absorb sell orders.

這種去槓桿化和流動性收縮（僅佔校正期間總供應量的2.5％）限制了市場的能力超過$ 90K，因為沒有足夠的買入訂單來吸收賣出訂單。

Related: Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won't go higher than $138K in 2025

相關：比特幣價格預測市場Bet BTC在2025年不超過138K

New demand for Bitcoin continues to fall

對比特幣的新需求繼續下降

Glassnode data also highlighted that the current BTC bull cycle lacks new demand (buyers) entering the market, with the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap showing supply concentration at higher price levels ($100K-$108K) but no significant influx of buyers at lower levels to drive a price recovery.

玻璃節數據還強調，當前的BTC公牛週期缺乏進入市場的新需求（買家），成本基礎分佈（CBD）熱圖顯示，價格較高的供應集中度（$ 100k- $ 108K），但在較低水平上，沒有大量大量的買家湧入以驅動價格回收。

Bitcoin Euphoria Zone, Top Buyer Cost Basis. Source: Glassnode

比特幣欣快感區，最高買家的成本基礎。來源：玻璃節

The lack of demand factor is compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty, which has discouraged new investors, as seen in the transition to net capital outflows when the 1-week to 1-month STH cost basis fell below the 1-month to 3-month cost basis.

宏觀經濟不確定性缺乏需求因素，這種不確定性使新的投資者勸阻新的投資者，這在過渡到淨資本的過渡中可以看到1周到1個月的STH成本基礎低於1個月至3個月的成本基礎。

However, Glassnode analysts said,

但是，玻璃節分析師說，

“Essentially, these periods of prolonged accumulation can eventually constrict the

“本質上，這些長時間積累時期最終可以限制