Bitcoin (BTC) price fails to break $88,000 resistance, reducing the chance for a $90,000 retest

Since reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24, Bitcoin (BTC) price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows in the 1-hour time frame chart.

Bitcoin price has encountered resistance at the $88,000 level as it flushes out the remaining short-term holders (STHs) and continues to form lower highs and lower lows in the 1-hour time frame chart.

After reaching a weekly high of $88,752 on March 24, BTC price has failed to break above the $88,000 resistance.

Bitcoin 1-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As the end of the week approaches, the chance for a $90,000 retest before the end of Q1 appears slim.

What is keeping Bitcoin under $90K?

One major factor hindering Bitcoin’s price recovery is the persistent sell-side pressure from STHs or investors holding coins for less than 155 days.

As highlighted in Glassnode's “The Week On-chain” newsletter, the current Bitcoin cycle has seen a “top heavy” market where investors who purchased BTC at higher prices hold a larger portion of the cryptocurrency's supply.

Consequently, the STH cohort is primary group facing the largest price drawdown from the 30% correction in Bitcoin price from its all-time high.

In the report, Glassnode analysts said,

“The Bitcoin price correction encountered significant resistance at the $93,000-$97,000 range, leading to a 30% decline from the all-time high. Despite this substantial downturn, the short-term holders (STHs) are the only cohort in profit, with 2.5% of the total supply moving in profit during the correction.”

Bitcoin total supply in loss held by STHs. Source: Glassnode

The selling pressure faced by the short-term holders is also reflected in Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score.

Bitcoin’s accumulation trend score, a metric that quantifies selling pressure, remained below 0.1 since BTC price dropped from $108,000 to the $93,000-$97,000 range. A score under 0.5 signals distribution (selling) instead of accumulation, and a sub-0.1 value highlights intense selling pressure.

Another factor limiting Bitcoin's ability to pierce through the $90,000 threshold is the contraction of liquidity conditions.

Onchain transfer volumes have dropped to $5.2 billion daily, a steep 47% decline from the peak during the rally to all-time highs, while the active address count has also decreased by 18%, dropping from 950,000 in November 2024 to 780,000.

At the same time, the open interest (OI) in the BTC futures market dropped 24% from $71.85 billion to $54.65 billion, with the perpetual futures funding rates also cooling down.

This deleveraging and liquidity contraction—combined with only 2.5% of the total supply moving in profit during the correction—limits the market’s capacity to rally past $90k since there are insufficient buy orders to absorb sell orders.

Related: Bitcoin price prediction markets bet BTC won't go higher than $138K in 2025

New demand for Bitcoin continues to fall

Glassnode data also highlighted that the current BTC bull cycle lacks new demand (buyers) entering the market, with the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap showing supply concentration at higher price levels ($100K-$108K) but no significant influx of buyers at lower levels to drive a price recovery.

Bitcoin Euphoria Zone, Top Buyer Cost Basis. Source: Glassnode

The lack of demand factor is compounded by macroeconomic uncertainty, which has discouraged new investors, as seen in the transition to net capital outflows when the 1-week to 1-month STH cost basis fell below the 1-month to 3-month cost basis.

However, Glassnode analysts said,

“Essentially, these periods of prolonged accumulation can eventually constrict the