比特币（BTC）价格崩溃？亚瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）预测三月崩溃

担心经济衰退会使市场大跌，击中股票和加密货币。在黑色星期一，美国股票指数进行了潜水：道琼斯指数降低了2％，标准普尔500指数下降了2.7％，纳斯达克占4％。

Worries about a looming recession and jitters in the U.S. political climate saw markets tumbling on Monday, dragging both stocks and crypto into the red.

担心迫在眉睫的经济衰退和美国政治气候的烦恼使市场在周一大跌，将股票和加密货币拖入了红色。

On Black Monday, U.S. stock indices took a dive: the Dow shed 2%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq nosedived 4%.

在黑色星期一，美国股票指数进行了潜水：道琼斯指数降低了2％，标准普尔500指数下降了2.7％，纳斯达克占4％。

Major firms like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) took a beating, with Tesla falling sharply by 15.4%. At the same time, Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 mark for the second time in three weeks, rattling investor nerves.

特斯拉（NASDAQ：TSLA）和苹果（NASDAQ：AAPL）等主要公司进行了殴打，特斯拉急剧下降了15.4％。同时，比特币在三周内第二次低于80,000美元，这使投资者紧张不安。

Hayes’s Bitcoin Prediction Looks More Likely

海斯的比特币预测看起来更有可能

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has been flagging potential market corrections, especially for Bitcoin, for some time now.

BITMEX的联合创始人Arthur Hayes一直在标记潜在的市场校正，尤其是对于比特币而言，一段时间以来。

Hayes had previously suggested that Bitcoin might drop to $75,000, a prediction that seems to be coming true. Recent reports show that Bitcoin touched a low of $81,380, getting closer to Hayes’s predicted price level.

海耶斯此前曾建议比特币可能会降至75,000美元，这一预测似乎正在实现。最近的报告显示，比特币的低点为81,380美元，接近海斯预期的价格水平。

In his latest comments, Hayes further stated that Bitcoin could fall even lower if it manages to hit the $75,000 mark. He also highlighted open interest around that price level as a key indicator, suggesting that it could signal growing bearish sentiment in the market.

海耶斯在最新评论中进一步指出，如果比特币设法达到75,000美元的成绩，比特币可能会下降。他还强调了该价格水平的开放兴趣作为关键指标，这表明它可能表明市场上的看跌期权。

“I think if we can get to $75,000 on good volume—not like a brief touch and a rebound—and we close at $75,000, then we might get another leg down to $60,000. My year-end Bitcoin price target is still $120,000. I think we’ll hit $150,000 in early 2024 as a high, and then we’ll have another leg down to $60,000 by year-end 2024,” Hayes said.

“我认为，如果我们可以达到$ 75,000的款项，而不是短暂的触摸和回弹 - 我们收盘价为75,000美元，那么我们可能会降至60,000美元。我的年终比特币价格目标仍然为$ 120,000。我认为我们将在2024年初达到150,000美元，然后在2024年底到2024年，我们将又下降到60,000美元。”海斯说。

Economic Jitters, Political Climate Fuel Market Slide

经济抖动，政治气候燃料市场幻灯片

The market downturn is being fueled by concerns over the U.S. economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently warned of a potential “detox period” as the new administration focuses on cutting government spending.

对美国经济的担忧，市场的低迷也在推动。财政部长斯科特·贝斯特（Scott Bessent）最近警告说，新政府专注于削减政府支出，潜在的“排毒期”。

“We’re in the midst of a detox period in terms of the hangover from the pandemic-era spending and the urgency to reduce the deficit,” Bessent said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Bessent在接受《金融时报》采访时说：“就大流行时代的支出和减少赤字的紧迫性而言，我们正处于排毒期。”

Furthermore, U.S. President Trump stated that the economy is going through a “transition period,” which could add to the uncertainty in the minds of investors.

此外，美国总统特朗普表示，经济正在经历“过渡时期”，这可能会增加投资者心目中的不确定性。

“The economy is going through a transition period, and I think the president is signaling that he's aware of the need for change,” Trump said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

特朗普在X上的一篇文章中说：“经济正在经历过渡期，我认为总统表明他意识到了变革的必要性。”

In a gloomy assessment, Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. growth forecast for 2023, citing risks from new tariffs and a slower-than-expected recovery in equipment investment.

在一项令人沮丧的评估中，高盛降低了其2023年的美国增长预测，理由是新的关税风险和设备投资的回收率较慢。

Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve data showed inflation expectations slipping to 3.13% in August, an increase from the previous month's reading of 2.98%. This signals persisting worries about the U.S. economic outlook.

同时，纽约美联储的数据显示，八月份的通货膨胀期望下滑至3.13％，比上个月的阅读量增加了2.98％。这表明对美国的经济前景感到担忧。

Bitcoin Failing to Break Free from Traditional Markets

比特币未能摆脱传统市场

On the other hand, Bitcoin's continued decline underscores its struggle to decouple from traditional asset markets.

另一方面，比特币的持续下降突显了其与传统资产市场相结合的斗争。

Mintology CEO Zach Burks pointed out that Bitcoin, which was once considered a safe haven, is now being viewed as a high-risk asset. This shift in perception has implications for Bitcoin's price movements.

Mintology首席执行官扎克·伯克斯（Zach Burks）指出，曾经被认为是避风港的比特币现在被视为高风险资产。这种感知转变对比特币的价格变动有影响。

However, technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be nearing a short-term rebound. The RSI, currently at 37.60, is approaching the oversold zone of 30, which could signal a possible price reversal.

但是，技术指标表明比特币可能正在接近短期反弹。 RSI目前为37.60，正在接近30个区域，这可能标志着可能的价格逆转。

Moreover, the MACD remains negative, confirming bearish momentum in the market. Still, if buying pressure picks up, these indicators could signal a trend change, possibly leading to a recovery in the coming weeks. Nonetheless, only time will tell if this rebound is imminent or if Bitcoin has more downside potential to explore.

此外，MACD仍然是负面的，证实了市场上看跌的动力。尽管如此，如果购买压力增加，这些指标可能会标志着趋势变化，可能会导致未来几周的恢复。尽管如此，只有时间才能证明这种反弹是否即将到来，或者比特币是否具有更大的探索潜力。