比特幣（BTC）價格崩潰？亞瑟·海斯（Arthur Hayes）預測三月崩潰

擔心經濟衰退會使市場大跌，擊中股票和加密貨幣。在黑色星期一，美國股票指數進行了潛水：道瓊斯指數降低了2％，標準普爾500指數下降了2.7％，納斯達克佔4％。

Worries about a looming recession and jitters in the U.S. political climate saw markets tumbling on Monday, dragging both stocks and crypto into the red.

擔心迫在眉睫的經濟衰退和美國政治氣候的煩惱使市場在周一大跌，將股票和加密貨幣拖入了紅色。

On Black Monday, U.S. stock indices took a dive: the Dow shed 2%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Nasdaq nosedived 4%.

在黑色星期一，美國股票指數進行了潛水：道瓊斯指數降低了2％，標準普爾500指數下降了2.7％，納斯達克佔4％。

Major firms like Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) took a beating, with Tesla falling sharply by 15.4%. At the same time, Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 mark for the second time in three weeks, rattling investor nerves.

特斯拉（NASDAQ：TSLA）和蘋果（NASDAQ：AAPL）等主要公司進行了毆打，特斯拉急劇下降了15.4％。同時，比特幣在三週內第二次低於80,000美元，這使投資者緊張不安。

Hayes’s Bitcoin Prediction Looks More Likely

海斯的比特幣預測看起來更有可能

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, has been flagging potential market corrections, especially for Bitcoin, for some time now.

BITMEX的聯合創始人Arthur Hayes一直在標記潛在的市場校正，尤其是對於比特幣而言，一段時間以來。

Hayes had previously suggested that Bitcoin might drop to $75,000, a prediction that seems to be coming true. Recent reports show that Bitcoin touched a low of $81,380, getting closer to Hayes’s predicted price level.

海耶斯此前曾建議比特幣可能會降至75,000美元，這一預測似乎正在實現。最近的報告顯示，比特幣的低點為81,380美元，接近海斯預期的價格水平。

In his latest comments, Hayes further stated that Bitcoin could fall even lower if it manages to hit the $75,000 mark. He also highlighted open interest around that price level as a key indicator, suggesting that it could signal growing bearish sentiment in the market.

海耶斯在最新評論中進一步指出，如果比特幣設法達到75,000美元的成績，比特幣可能會下降。他還強調了該價格水平的開放興趣作為關鍵指標，這表明它可能表明市場上的看跌期權。

“I think if we can get to $75,000 on good volume—not like a brief touch and a rebound—and we close at $75,000, then we might get another leg down to $60,000. My year-end Bitcoin price target is still $120,000. I think we’ll hit $150,000 in early 2024 as a high, and then we’ll have another leg down to $60,000 by year-end 2024,” Hayes said.

“我認為，如果我們可以達到$ 75,000的款項，而不是短暫的觸摸和回彈 - 我們收盤價為75,000美元，那麼我們可能會降至60,000美元。我的年終比特幣價格目標仍然為$ 120,000。我認為我們將在2024年初達到150,000美元，然後在2024年底到2024年，我們將又下降到60,000美元。”海斯說。

Economic Jitters, Political Climate Fuel Market Slide

經濟抖動，政治氣候燃料市場幻燈片

The market downturn is being fueled by concerns over the U.S. economy. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently warned of a potential “detox period” as the new administration focuses on cutting government spending.

對美國經濟的擔憂，市場的低迷也在推動。財政部長斯科特·貝斯特（Scott Bessent）最近警告說，新政府專注於削減政府支出，潛在的“排毒期”。

“We’re in the midst of a detox period in terms of the hangover from the pandemic-era spending and the urgency to reduce the deficit,” Bessent said in an interview with the Financial Times.

Bessent在接受《金融時報》採訪時說：“就大流行時代的支出和減少赤字的緊迫性而言，我們正處於排毒期。”

Furthermore, U.S. President Trump stated that the economy is going through a “transition period,” which could add to the uncertainty in the minds of investors.

此外，美國總統特朗普表示，經濟正在經歷“過渡時期”，這可能會增加投資者心目中的不確定性。

“The economy is going through a transition period, and I think the president is signaling that he's aware of the need for change,” Trump said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

特朗普在X上的一篇文章中說：“經濟正在經歷過渡期，我認為總統表明他意識到了變革的必要性。”

In a gloomy assessment, Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. growth forecast for 2023, citing risks from new tariffs and a slower-than-expected recovery in equipment investment.

在一項令人沮喪的評估中，高盛降低了其2023年的美國增長預測，理由是新的關稅風險和設備投資的回收率較慢。

Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve data showed inflation expectations slipping to 3.13% in August, an increase from the previous month's reading of 2.98%. This signals persisting worries about the U.S. economic outlook.

同時，紐約美聯儲的數據顯示，八月份的通貨膨脹期望下滑至3.13％，比上個月的閱讀量增加了2.98％。這表明對美國的經濟前景感到擔憂。

Bitcoin Failing to Break Free from Traditional Markets

比特幣未能擺脫傳統市場

On the other hand, Bitcoin's continued decline underscores its struggle to decouple from traditional asset markets.

另一方面，比特幣的持續下降突顯了其與傳統資產市場相結合的鬥爭。

Mintology CEO Zach Burks pointed out that Bitcoin, which was once considered a safe haven, is now being viewed as a high-risk asset. This shift in perception has implications for Bitcoin's price movements.

Mintology首席執行官扎克·伯克斯（Zach Burks）指出，曾經被認為是避風港的比特幣現在被視為高風險資產。這種感知轉變對比特幣的價格變動有影響。

However, technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin may be nearing a short-term rebound. The RSI, currently at 37.60, is approaching the oversold zone of 30, which could signal a possible price reversal.

但是，技術指標表明比特幣可能正在接近短期反彈。 RSI目前為37.60，正在接近30個區域，這可能標誌著可能的價格逆轉。

Moreover, the MACD remains negative, confirming bearish momentum in the market. Still, if buying pressure picks up, these indicators could signal a trend change, possibly leading to a recovery in the coming weeks. Nonetheless, only time will tell if this rebound is imminent or if Bitcoin has more downside potential to explore.

此外，MACD仍然是負面的，證實了市場上看跌的動力。儘管如此，如果購買壓力增加，這些指標可能會標誌著趨勢變化，可能會導致未來幾週的恢復。儘管如此，只有時間才能證明這種反彈是否即將到來，或者比特幣是否具有更大的探索潛力。