尽管面临2025年的挑战，但新的见解表明比特币（BTC）投资者有前途的前景

尽管自今年年初以来，比特币市场一直面临挑战，但新的见解表明投资者有前途的前景。

The Bitcoin (BTC) market has faced several challenges since the beginning of this year, but new insights suggest a promising outlook for investors as the crypto behemoth shows signs of setting up for the next move.

自今年年初以来，比特币（BTC）市场已经面临着几个挑战，但是新见解表明，由于加密庞然大物表现出为下一步行动设置的迹象，投资者的前景有希望的前景。

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is showing signs that it could follow a familiar cycle observed during the 2024 correction. The analysis focuses on the changing behavior of short-term holders and its correlation with market direction.

根据加密量的链链数据，比特币显示出可以遵循2024年校正期间观察到的熟悉循环的迹象。该分析的重点是短期持有人的行为不断变化及其与市场方向的相关性。

Specifically, the key metric is the percentage of Bitcoin that is being held for periods ranging from one week to one month. This ratio serves as a gauge of speculative activity. As the market experiences a rally, this percentage tends to escalate rapidly, frequently foreshadowing a phase of price consolidation or decline.

具体而言，关键指标是比特币的百分比，该比特币持续了一周到一个月。该比率是投机活动的量表。随着市场经历集会，这一百分比往往会迅速升级，经常预示价格合并或下降阶段。

This pattern—speculative increase (marked by arrow 1 in the chart), overheating peak (2), and correction (3)—has now played out twice in the current market cycle. The most recent cooldown has brought the short-term holding percentage back to a level that was typically seen during the bottom of the 2024 correction.

这种模式 - 指定的增加（图表中的箭头1标记），过热峰（2）和更正（3） - 现在在当前市场周期中两次播放。最近的冷却型将短期持有百分比恢复到了2024年校正底部通常看到的水平。

Chart of the percentage of Bitcoin tokens held for periods of one week to one month. The green band highlights this share, while the yellow box indicates the preferred zone for minimal speculative activity. Source: CryptoQuant

比特币代币的百分比持有的一周到一个月的时间表。绿色带突出显示了这一共享，而黄色框则指示最小投机活动的首选区域。资料来源：加密

The green band on the chart, which shows the share of Bitcoin tokens aged one week to one month, has returned to the yellow box region. Notably, this was the same area seen before the market rebounded in mid-2024.

图表上的绿色乐队返回了黄色盒子区域，显示了一周到一个月的比特币代币的份额。值得注意的是，这是在市场在2024年中期反弹之前看到的同一区域。

This suggests that the speculative excess, which saw the percentage cross the 20% threshold earlier this year, as highlighted by the red lines on the chart, may now be cleared.

这表明，现在可能会清除图表上的红线突出显示的投机性过剩，该百分比越过了今年早些时候的20％阈值。

Bitcoin had an eventful first quarter of 2024, to say the least. During this period, the flagship cryptocurrency managed to break above the previous cycle’s all-time high, eventually reaching $73,750. At this price, the fever reached its peak, setting the stage for a correction phase.

至少可以说，比特币在2024年的第一季度有很多事情。在此期间，旗舰加密货币设法超过了上一个周期的历史最高水平，最终达到了73,750美元。以这个价格，发烧达到了高峰，为校正阶段奠定了基础。

The pullback, characterized by declining prices, spanned approximately six months and saw Bitcoin drop to lows around $49,000. This downturn was further amplified by global political tensions. However, optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s re-election bid due to his pro-Bitcoin promises helped lay the foundation for Bitcoin’s subsequent rebound.

以价格下降为特征的回调跨越了大约六个月，比特币下降至49,000美元左右。全球政治紧张局势进一步扩大了这种衰退。然而，由于唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的连任竞选，由于他的亲比特币承诺，对比特币随后的反弹奠定了基础。

Following Trump’s November victory, Bitcoin experienced a massive breakout, smashing through the earlier March 2024 peak. Interestingly, during this time, Bitcoin was setting new highs almost every day. The bullish momentum continued until late January 2025.

在特朗普11月的胜利之后，比特币经历了巨大的突破，在2024年3月早些时候的山峰中粉碎。有趣的是，在这段时间里，比特币几乎每天都在设置新的高点。看涨的势头一直持续到2025年1月下旬。

From there, the market experienced some harrowing dips as Bitcoin’s price tumbled 32% from the peak of $110,000 to reach $74,400 over the past three months.

从那里开始，市场经历了一些令人痛苦的下降，因为比特币的价格从110,000美元的峰值起价32％，在过去三个月中达到了74,400美元。

Now, on-chain data cited by analyst Crypto Dan suggests that the pullback phase is nearing its end, as seen in historical observations. However, the analyst does not forecast an immediate rebound in price.

现在，分析师Crypto Dan引用的链链数据表明，回顾阶段即将结束，如历史观察中所示。但是，分析师没有预测价格立即反弹。

He noted that although there might still be a brief period of consolidation, the overall structural setup remains favorable for a renewed upward trend.

他指出，尽管可能仍然有短暂的合并，但总体结构设置仍然有利于新的上升趋势。

Moreover, Crypto Dan added that if macroeconomic conditions turn supportive, the next few months of 2025 could witness a fresh leg of growth for Bitcoin.

此外，Crypto Dan补充说，如果宏观经济状况转向支持，那么2025年的接下来的几个月可能会见证比特币的新成长。

As on-chain metrics cool down and no major signs of excessive speculation remain, the broader market sentiment is stabilizing, which may be interpreted by investors as an accumulation window.

随着链上指标冷却，没有过多猜测的主要迹象，更广泛的市场情绪正在稳定，这可以由投资者解释为累积窗口。

Overall, the data suggests a healthy market reset, echoing the conditions that eventually triggered Bitcoin’s rally following the 2024 correction. On the other hand, some market analysts believe Bitcoin has already entered a bear market based on other indicators.

总体而言，数据表明，健康的市场重置，回应了2024年校正后最终引发比特币集会的条件。另一方面，一些市场分析师认为，比特币已经根据其他指标进入了熊市。

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $84,450, up 0.45% over the past day.

发稿时，比特币的交易价格为84,450美元，比过去几天增长0.45％。