儘管面臨2025年的挑戰，但新的見解表明比特幣（BTC）投資者有前途的前景

儘管自今年年初以來，比特幣市場一直面臨挑戰，但新的見解表明投資者有前途的前景。

The Bitcoin (BTC) market has faced several challenges since the beginning of this year, but new insights suggest a promising outlook for investors as the crypto behemoth shows signs of setting up for the next move.

自今年年初以來，比特幣（BTC）市場已經面臨著幾個挑戰，但是新見解表明，由於加密龐然大物表現出為下一步行動設置的跡象，投資者的前景有希望的前景。

According to on-chain data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin is showing signs that it could follow a familiar cycle observed during the 2024 correction. The analysis focuses on the changing behavior of short-term holders and its correlation with market direction.

根據加密量的鍊鍊數據，比特幣顯示出可以遵循2024年校正期間觀察到的熟悉循環的跡象。該分析的重點是短期持有人的行為不斷變化及其與市場方向的相關性。

Specifically, the key metric is the percentage of Bitcoin that is being held for periods ranging from one week to one month. This ratio serves as a gauge of speculative activity. As the market experiences a rally, this percentage tends to escalate rapidly, frequently foreshadowing a phase of price consolidation or decline.

具體而言，關鍵指標是比特幣的百分比，該比特幣持續了一周到一個月。該比率是投機活動的量表。隨著市場經歷集會，這一百分比往往會迅速升級，經常預示價格合併或下降階段。

This pattern—speculative increase (marked by arrow 1 in the chart), overheating peak (2), and correction (3)—has now played out twice in the current market cycle. The most recent cooldown has brought the short-term holding percentage back to a level that was typically seen during the bottom of the 2024 correction.

這種模式 - 指定的增加（圖表中的箭頭1標記），過熱峰（2）和更正（3） - 現在在當前市場週期中兩次播放。最近的冷卻型將短期持有百分比恢復到了2024年校正底部通常看到的水平。

Chart of the percentage of Bitcoin tokens held for periods of one week to one month. The green band highlights this share, while the yellow box indicates the preferred zone for minimal speculative activity. Source: CryptoQuant

比特幣代幣的百分比持有的一周到一個月的時間表。綠色帶突出顯示了這一共享，而黃色框則指示最小投機活動的首選區域。資料來源：加密

The green band on the chart, which shows the share of Bitcoin tokens aged one week to one month, has returned to the yellow box region. Notably, this was the same area seen before the market rebounded in mid-2024.

圖表上的綠色樂隊返回了黃色盒子區域，顯示了一周到一個月的比特幣代幣的份額。值得注意的是，這是在市場在2024年中期反彈之前看到的同一區域。

This suggests that the speculative excess, which saw the percentage cross the 20% threshold earlier this year, as highlighted by the red lines on the chart, may now be cleared.

這表明，現在可能會清除圖表上的紅線突出顯示的投機性過剩，該百分比越過了今年早些時候的20％閾值。

Bitcoin had an eventful first quarter of 2024, to say the least. During this period, the flagship cryptocurrency managed to break above the previous cycle’s all-time high, eventually reaching $73,750. At this price, the fever reached its peak, setting the stage for a correction phase.

至少可以說，比特幣在2024年的第一季度有很多事情。在此期間，旗艦加密貨幣設法超過了上一個週期的歷史最高水平，最終達到了73,750美元。以這個價格，發燒達到了高峰，為校正階段奠定了基礎。

The pullback, characterized by declining prices, spanned approximately six months and saw Bitcoin drop to lows around $49,000. This downturn was further amplified by global political tensions. However, optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s re-election bid due to his pro-Bitcoin promises helped lay the foundation for Bitcoin’s subsequent rebound.

以價格下降為特徵的回調跨越了大約六個月，比特幣下降至49,000美元左右。全球政治緊張局勢進一步擴大了這種衰退。然而，由於唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的連任競選，由於他的親比特幣承諾，對比特幣隨後的反彈奠定了基礎。

Following Trump’s November victory, Bitcoin experienced a massive breakout, smashing through the earlier March 2024 peak. Interestingly, during this time, Bitcoin was setting new highs almost every day. The bullish momentum continued until late January 2025.

在特朗普11月的勝利之後，比特幣經歷了巨大的突破，在2024年3月早些時候的山峰中粉碎。有趣的是，在這段時間裡，比特幣幾乎每天都在設置新的高點。看漲的勢頭一直持續到2025年1月下旬。

From there, the market experienced some harrowing dips as Bitcoin’s price tumbled 32% from the peak of $110,000 to reach $74,400 over the past three months.

從那裡開始，市場經歷了一些令人痛苦的下降，因為比特幣的價格從110,000美元的峰值起價32％，在過去三個月中達到了74,400美元。

Now, on-chain data cited by analyst Crypto Dan suggests that the pullback phase is nearing its end, as seen in historical observations. However, the analyst does not forecast an immediate rebound in price.

現在，分析師Crypto Dan引用的鍊鍊數據表明，回顧階段即將結束，如歷史觀察中所示。但是，分析師沒有預測價格立即反彈。

He noted that although there might still be a brief period of consolidation, the overall structural setup remains favorable for a renewed upward trend.

他指出，儘管可能仍然有短暫的合併，但總體結構設置仍然有利於新的上升趨勢。

Moreover, Crypto Dan added that if macroeconomic conditions turn supportive, the next few months of 2025 could witness a fresh leg of growth for Bitcoin.

此外，Crypto Dan補充說，如果宏觀經濟狀況轉向支持，那麼2025年的接下來的幾個月可能會見證比特幣的新成長。

As on-chain metrics cool down and no major signs of excessive speculation remain, the broader market sentiment is stabilizing, which may be interpreted by investors as an accumulation window.

隨著鏈上指標冷卻，沒有過多猜測的主要跡象，更廣泛的市場情緒正在穩定，這可以由投資者解釋為累積窗口。

Overall, the data suggests a healthy market reset, echoing the conditions that eventually triggered Bitcoin’s rally following the 2024 correction. On the other hand, some market analysts believe Bitcoin has already entered a bear market based on other indicators.

總體而言，數據表明，健康的市場重置，回應了2024年校正後最終引發比特幣集會的條件。另一方面，一些市場分析師認為，比特幣已經根據其他指標進入了熊市。

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $84,450, up 0.45% over the past day.

發稿時，比特幣的交易價格為84,450美元，比過去幾天增長0.45％。