比特币 (BTC) 价格走势暗示多头可能接管并推高 BTC 价格

比特币 (BTC) 价格目前交易价格超过 100,000 美元。随着情绪转向“风险偏好”，多头可能会接管并推高比特币价格。

Bitcoin price has crashed below $100,000 after a strong rally that saw the world’s largest cryptocurrency reach highs of over $108,000 in mid-December. However, market sentiment remains bullish, with multiple indicators suggesting that BTC price could be primed for even more gains in the coming days.

比特币价格在 12 月中旬强劲反弹并达到超过 108,000 美元的高位后，已跌破 100,000 美元。然而，市场情绪仍然看涨，多项指标表明比特币价格可能在未来几天内进一步上涨。

Bitcoin price is trading above $100,000, roughly three weeks after plunging below the psychological level in mid-December. As the coin holds above $100,000 at press time, market sentiment remains bullish, with multiple indicators suggesting that the world’s most valuable coin could be primed for even more gains in the days ahead.

比特币价格在 12 月中旬跌破心理水平大约三周后，目前交易至 10 万美元以上。截至发稿时，该代币价格维持在 100,000 美元以上，市场情绪依然看涨，多项指标表明，世界上最有价值的代币可能会在未来几天内进一步上涨。

Of note, observers point to broader global financial market trends, specifically the tightening corporate credit spreads and shifts in equities, as some of the key drivers behind the coin’s impressive resilience and possible upside trend.

值得注意的是，观察人士指出，更广泛的全球金融市场趋势，特别是企业信贷利差收紧和股市变化，是比特币令人印象深刻的弹性和可能的​​上行趋势背后的一些关键驱动因素。

Credit Spreads Falling: Time To Load Up on BTC?

信用利差下降：是时候买入比特币了吗？

Taking to X, the founder of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards, pointed out the importance of falling credit spreads over the past few years. Edwards notes that as of early January 2025, BBB corporate bond spreads are down and tight, suggesting that the bond market is in “risk-on” mode.

Capriole Investments 的创始人 Charles Edwards 在谈到 X 时指出了过去几年信用利差下降的重要性。爱德华兹指出，截至 2025 年 1 月上旬，BBB 公司债券利差下降且收窄，表明债券市场处于“风险偏好”模式。

Usually, whenever credit spreads widen, it signals higher perceived risks in corporate bonds relative to United States treasures.

通常，只要信用利差扩大，就表明公司债券相对于美国国债的风险更高。

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Accordingly, investors tend to demand greater yields to cover the uncertainty. However, as credit spreads narrow, as is currently the case, it reflects growing confidence among investors.

因此，投资者往往要求更高的收益率来应对不确定性。然而，随着信贷利差收窄（就像目前的情况一样），这反映出投资者的信心不断增强。

In turn, they can plunge and get exposure to risk assets, a trend that often bodes well with crypto, especially Bitcoin.  

反过来，他们可以暴跌并接触风险资产，这种趋势通常对加密货币（尤其是比特币）来说是个好兆头。

Hints From The Equity Markets For Bitcoin Price

股票市场对比特币价格的暗示

Besides shrinking credit spreads, Capriole Investments notes that the Value (VTV) to Growth (VUG) stocks ratio fell sharply in Q4 2024.

Capriole Investments 指出，除了信贷利差缩小外，价值股 (VTV) 与成长股 (VUG) 的比率在 2024 年第四季度大幅下降。

Typically, the falling VTV-VUG ratio is considered bullish for equities, which is currently dominated by growth and technology sectors.

通常情况下，VTV-VUG 比率下降被认为对股市有利，目前股市以增长和科技板块为主。

(VTG/VUG)

（VTG/VUG）

Therefore, if history guides, there is a high probability of shifting, favoring equities and crypto.

因此，如果历史为指导，很有可能发生转变，有利于股票和加密货币。

This metric rose during the “risk-off” periods in the early days of COVID-19 in 2020. Although it shrunk as governments intervened, the ratio spiked again when the Federal Reserve turned hawkish, aggressively hiking rates in 2021 to curb rising inflation.

该指标在 2020 年 COVID-19 初期的“避险”时期有所上升。尽管随着政府干预而有所缩小，但当美联储在 2021 年转向鹰派并大幅加息以遏制通胀上升时，该比率再次飙升。

As the VTV-VUG ratio falls, it could suggest that market participants favor risk and growth-oriented investment, a backdrop that’s net bullish for Bitcoin.

随着 VTV-VUG 比率下降，这可能表明市场参与者青睐风险和增长型投资，这是对比特币净看涨的背景。

BTC Price Ready To Take Off in Q1, 2025?

BTC 价格准备在 2025 年第一季度起飞吗？

There are signs that momentum is building up.

有迹象表明势头正在增强。

For example, the Bitcoin Heater, a tracker developed by Capriole, shows that prices are moving closer to the “buy zone” after it reset this week.

例如，Capriole 开发的追踪器 Bitcoin Heater 显示，本周重置后，价格正在接近“买入区域”。

Coincidentally, the reset and a possible switch to “buying” is when miners are slowing down on their liquidation. When prices peaked at over $108,000 in December, the miner sell pressure ratio rose above 1.

巧合的是，重置和可能转向“购买”的时间是矿工放慢清算速度的时候。当 12 月份价格达到 108,000 美元以上的峰值时，矿商的抛售压力比率升至 1 以上。

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Currently, it has cooled off, dropping to around 0.55, pointing to dropping selling pressure and, thus, a healthier market structure.

目前，该值已经降温，跌至 0.55 左右，表明抛售压力有所下降，从而形成更健康的市场结构。

As momentum builds up, one analyst on X said over 90% of all BTC in circulation is in green territory. He projects even more gains in the coming weeks, comparing the current state of price action to the 2017 cycle.

随着势头增强，X 的一位分析师表示，超过 90% 的流通 BTC 处于绿色区域。他预计未来几周将会出现更多涨幅，并将当前的价格走势与 2017 年周期进行比较。

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Bullish as this may be, it will be critical to monitor how macro events, primarily regulatory and monetary policy developments in the United States, will influence crypto prices going forward.

尽管这可能是乐观的，但监控宏观事件（主要是美国的监管和货币政策发展）将如何影响未来的加密货币价格至关重要。

At press time, Coingecko data shows that Bitcoin is up 10% in seven days, trading above $101,700.

截至发稿时，Coingecko 数据显示，比特币在 7 天内上涨了 10%，交易价格超过 101,700 美元。