比特幣 (BTC) 價格走勢暗示多頭可能接管並推高 BTC 價格

比特幣 (BTC) 價格目前交易價格超過 10 萬美元。隨著情緒轉向“風險偏好”，多頭可能會接管並推高比特幣價格。

Bitcoin price has crashed below $100,000 after a strong rally that saw the world’s largest cryptocurrency reach highs of over $108,000 in mid-December. However, market sentiment remains bullish, with multiple indicators suggesting that BTC price could be primed for even more gains in the coming days.

比特幣價格在 12 月中旬強勁反彈並達到超過 108,000 美元的高點後，已跌破 10 萬美元。然而，市場情緒仍然看漲，多個指標表明比特幣價格可能在未來幾天內進一步上漲。

Bitcoin price is trading above $100,000, roughly three weeks after plunging below the psychological level in mid-December. As the coin holds above $100,000 at press time, market sentiment remains bullish, with multiple indicators suggesting that the world’s most valuable coin could be primed for even more gains in the days ahead.

比特幣價格在 12 月中旬跌破心理水準大約三週後，目前交易至 10 萬美元以上。截至發稿時，該代幣價格維持在 10 萬美元以上，市場情緒依然看漲，多項指標表明，世界上最有價值的代幣可能會在未來幾天內進一步上漲。

Of note, observers point to broader global financial market trends, specifically the tightening corporate credit spreads and shifts in equities, as some of the key drivers behind the coin’s impressive resilience and possible upside trend.

值得注意的是，觀察家指出，更廣泛的全球金融市場趨勢，特別是企業信貸利差收緊和股市變化，是比特幣令人印象深刻的彈性和可能的​​上行趨勢背後的一些關鍵驅動因素。

Credit Spreads Falling: Time To Load Up on BTC?

信用利差下降：是時候買入比特幣了嗎？

Taking to X, the founder of Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards, pointed out the importance of falling credit spreads over the past few years. Edwards notes that as of early January 2025, BBB corporate bond spreads are down and tight, suggesting that the bond market is in “risk-on” mode.

Capriole Investments 的創辦人 Charles Edwards 在談到 X 時指出了過去幾年信用利差下降的重要性。愛德華茲指出，截至 2025 年 1 月上旬，BBB 公司債利差下降且收窄，顯示債券市場處於「風險偏好」模式。

Usually, whenever credit spreads widen, it signals higher perceived risks in corporate bonds relative to United States treasures.

通常，只要信用利差擴大，就表示公司債相對於美國國債的風險更高。

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Accordingly, investors tend to demand greater yields to cover the uncertainty. However, as credit spreads narrow, as is currently the case, it reflects growing confidence among investors.

因此，投資者往往要求更高的收益率來應對不確定性。然而，隨著信貸利差收窄（就像目前的情況一樣），這反映出投資人的信心不斷增強。

In turn, they can plunge and get exposure to risk assets, a trend that often bodes well with crypto, especially Bitcoin.  

反過來，他們可以暴跌並接觸風險資產，這種趨勢通常對加密貨幣（尤其是比特幣）來說是個好兆頭。

Hints From The Equity Markets For Bitcoin Price

股票市場對比特幣價格的暗示

Besides shrinking credit spreads, Capriole Investments notes that the Value (VTV) to Growth (VUG) stocks ratio fell sharply in Q4 2024.

Capriole Investments 指出，除了信貸利差縮小外，價值股 (VTV) 與成長股 (VUG) 的比率在 2024 年第四季大幅下降。

Typically, the falling VTV-VUG ratio is considered bullish for equities, which is currently dominated by growth and technology sectors.

通常情況下，VTV-VUG 比率下降被認為對股市有利，目前股市以成長和科技板塊為主。

(VTG/VUG)

（VTG/VUG）

Therefore, if history guides, there is a high probability of shifting, favoring equities and crypto.

因此，如果歷史為指導，很有可能發生轉變，有利於股票和加密貨幣。

This metric rose during the “risk-off” periods in the early days of COVID-19 in 2020. Although it shrunk as governments intervened, the ratio spiked again when the Federal Reserve turned hawkish, aggressively hiking rates in 2021 to curb rising inflation.

該指標在2020 年COVID-19 初期的「避險」時期有所上升。再次飆升。

As the VTV-VUG ratio falls, it could suggest that market participants favor risk and growth-oriented investment, a backdrop that’s net bullish for Bitcoin.

隨著 VTV-VUG 比率下降，這可能表明市場參與者青睞風險和成長型投資，這是對比特幣淨看漲的背景。

BTC Price Ready To Take Off in Q1, 2025?

BTC 價格準備在 2025 年第一季起飛嗎？

There are signs that momentum is building up.

有跡象表明勢頭正在增強。

For example, the Bitcoin Heater, a tracker developed by Capriole, shows that prices are moving closer to the “buy zone” after it reset this week.

例如，Capriole 開發的追蹤器 Bitcoin Heater 顯示，本週重置後，價格正在接近「買入區域」。

Coincidentally, the reset and a possible switch to “buying” is when miners are slowing down on their liquidation. When prices peaked at over $108,000 in December, the miner sell pressure ratio rose above 1.

巧合的是，重置和可能轉向「購買」的時間是礦工放慢清算速度的時候。當 12 月價格達到 108,000 美元以上的峰值時，礦商的拋售壓力比率升至 1 以上。

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Currently, it has cooled off, dropping to around 0.55, pointing to dropping selling pressure and, thus, a healthier market structure.

目前，該值已經降溫，跌至 0.55 左右，表明拋售壓力下降，從而形成更健康的市場結構。

As momentum builds up, one analyst on X said over 90% of all BTC in circulation is in green territory. He projects even more gains in the coming weeks, comparing the current state of price action to the 2017 cycle.

隨著勢頭增強，X 的一位分析師表示，超過 90% 的流通 BTC 處於綠色區域。他預計未來幾週將會出現更多漲幅，並將當前的價格走勢與 2017 年周期進行比較。

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Bullish as this may be, it will be critical to monitor how macro events, primarily regulatory and monetary policy developments in the United States, will influence crypto prices going forward.

儘管這可能是樂觀的，但監控宏觀事件（主要是美國的監管和貨幣政策發展）將如何影響未來的加密貨幣價格至關重要。

At press time, Coingecko data shows that Bitcoin is up 10% in seven days, trading above $101,700.

截至發稿時，Coingecko 數據顯示，比特幣在 7 天內上漲了 10%，交易價格超過 101,700 美元。